Who will win the 2025 Tour de France? Ranking the form of the favourites as the final preparations get underway

Less than one month awaits before the start of the Tour de France, with the Giro d'Italia in the rear-view mirror, and the final WorldTour preparation stage races at the Crtiérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Suisse either underway or just around the corner. 

The three favourites for the Tour and the podium from last year's race, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuckStep), are also finally racing each other for the first time since July 2024 at the Dauphiné, with the tension properly building for July.

It's the most anticipated one-week stage race of the season, and with the Tour in focus, it will provide a clear look at how all of the expected protagonists are looking ahead of the July 5 Grand Départ. Even two stages in, and there are some key lessons to take into consideration for how the Tour's favourites appear to be shaping up.

Unlike last year, when Pogačar claimed a historic double, the Giro d'Italia winner is not expected to also fight for victory in the Tour, though he is likely to be a key part of the race. 

Simon Yates, after his inspirational last gasp win, which saw him conquer the very climb which broke his heart seven years ago at the Giro to claim the pink jersey, will be an important cog in the Visma-Lease a Bike machine, looking to guide Vingegaard to a third maillot jaune.

Nonetheless, the Giro did provide some serious implications for the Tour, from the Grand Tour rivalry of UAE and Visma, to the abandon of Tour fourth favourite Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe), which we'll look at below in our updated form guide.

Pogačar and Vingegaard are still expected to star, having won the past five Tours between them, but how close are the rest of the opposition to upsetting the established hierarchy? Here’s Cyclingews' latest form guide to the contenders for the 2025 Tour de France.  

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

As he was when we last ranked the contenders in 2025, Tadej Pogačar is firmly at the top of the list of favourites to win the Tour de France. 

With a historic Classics campaign behind him, the world champion is now into just his second stage race of the season at the Critérium du Dauphiné, and how else would he have kicked off the race other than with a surprise late break win on an expected sprint stage?

He beat Vingegaard and Mathieu van der Poel to the line, no less, after the Tour's stars came to the fore in Montluçon, picking up in June where he left things in April, when he added a third Liège-Bastogne-Liège and second Tour of Flanders title to his palmarès.

One-day form doesn't signal a direct repeat of his dominance from last year's Tour, nor does a shock stage win at the Dauphiné, but with the mountains and more duels with Vingegaard and Evenepoel imminent, it's not long before we see Pogačar's climbing shape.

With the Dauphiné yellow jersey already in his grasp, though, he'll be expected to kick on with some more exciting racing and will want to lay down a marker on the queen stage 7.

Pogačar will head into July as the defending Tour de France champion, the World Champion, and certainly the best rider in the peloton right now. So it’s hard to see him moving from the top spot of favourites before July, unless the Dauphiné is a complete disaster, or he fails to stay rubber-side down.

2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Jonas Vingegaard may not have raced since early March, having crashed out of Paris-Nice with a concussion, but he looked like he'd never left as the Dauphiné kicked into life.

Having won the 2022 and 2023 Tours and finished second last year after narrowly recovering in time from a horror crash at Itzulia Basque Country to take the start in 2024, Vingegaard will start as the clear second favourite.

The lack of race days, only 11 so far this season, would normally be a problem, but Vingegaard has completed a long block at altitude, which appears to have been successful, given his exploits on stage 1 in France.

After all, it was he who sparked the exciting move which ended with Pogačar taking the stage win, but the Dane did take second, also out-sprinting Van der Poel to his surprise, and looked very sharp ahead of the mountain stages. 

Perhaps the best boost to Vingegaard's hopes for the Tour, however, is how well his team did at the Giro d'Italia, with Simon Yates claiming the maglia rosa, and Wout van Aert returning to his world-beating best at a Grand Tour. 

Both the Giro winner and super domestique Belgian will make up key parts of Vingegaard's Tour support squad, and having defeated Pogačar's UAE team on the penultimate day to snatch pink, will be buoyed ahead of their next appointment against the Slovenian.

3. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)

The last time we updated the form ranking for the Tour de France, Remco Evenepoel still hadn't raced yet this season, with the dooring incident and long recovery from injury putting him out of action until April. His form was a mystery, and with a completely disrupted training period that saw him reach rock-bottom, it looked as though this year could be a write-off for the third-place finisher at last year's race.

That was, until he finally returned to competition at Brabantse Pijl with a bang, beating Wout van Aert to victory in a two-up sprint. The rest of the Ardennes Classics brought a mix of results, but it was clear that Evenepoel was improving.

At his first stage race in 2025, the Tour de Romandie, Evenepoel was again inconsistent, but still put in a solid performance to suggest the build-up to the Tour was going to work, finishing fifth overall and, crucially, winning the time trial.

Before the Dauphiné, the Olympic champion laid down the gauntlet, stating that he believed he "could come closer to Pogačar and Vingegaard", and on stage 1, proved that he was up to the test, bridging across to his rivals after the latter instigated a move of the superstars en route to Montluçon.

It's been a long road back for Evenepoel, but it looks like we will be seeing the very best of him at the Tour, come July. That said, the Giro d'Italia did see him lose his key mountain domestique Mikel Landa to a crash, so he won't be there to support the Belgian as he was last year.

4. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Once again, a series of crashes and bad luck has ruined a Grand Tour GC attempt for Primož Roglič, with his bid for glory at the Giro d'Italia ending on stage 16, after he went down again on the wet roads to San Valentino.

Roglič had sat above Evenepoel on this list back in March, but the Giro setback has seen him move down to fourth favourite, with no more racing scheduled before the Tour for the former Tour runner-up.

The Slovenian wasn't at his best throughout the Giro, also failing to take a stage win – as he typically does at Grand Tours – throughout the 15 stages he was able to race. 

It wasn't a great sign for the Tour, with the same chaos and hectic racing that saw him crash set to be amplified even more so during the Tour. Even then, it's unknown whether he will live up to the challenge of Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel on the hardest mountain tests, as we didn't get to see him in the brutal third week of the Giro.

He's bounced back several times in his illustrious career at the Vuelta, after several DNFs from the Tour, so perhaps crashing out of the Giro will see him bounce back to his world-beating best at the Tour.

5. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Teammates of the big favourites will be among those battling out for the top five spots at the Tour, such is the nature of today's super teams, and the rider who looks most likely to be right up with the very best is João Almeida. 

He'll be in support of Pogačar, of course, as he was last year when he finished fourth, but Almeida seems to have taken another step in his development this season, adding wins at Itzulia Basque Country and the Tour de Romandie to his palmarès.

A diesel climber, Almeida will likely be the final pace setter for Pogačar, moving up the pecking order ahead of Adam Yates as he did in 2024, and his work should again be enough to drop those fighting him for the top five.

His time trial is strong, so stages 5 and 13 against the clock should be no issue, and he's racing the Tour de Suisse next week, so we'll get a final look at his form ahead of the Grand Départ. He dominated that race last year alongside Yates, so expect similar, and another one-week WorldTour stage race to be ticked off his list of achievements.

6. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Like Almeida, Matteo Jorgenson is one of the key domestiques expected to similarly be at the business end of things throughout the Tour's toughest stages, with his second season at Visma-Lease a Bike only seeing him kick on and improve from a stunning 2024. 

The last form guide had him third, behind only Pogačar and Vingegaard, after his repeat success at Paris-Nice, but he's dropped down behind the likes of Evenepoel, with some unknowns being answered between March and June. 

Jorgenson didn't have the best Classics season, with the Dutch team failing to really challenge Van der Poel and Pogačar for the big wins, but the American's victory at Paris-Nice confirmed he is among the established top riders in the world.

His versatility and Classics prowess, nonetheless, give him an edge over riders such as Roglič and Evenepoel in surviving the chaos that the Tour brings, and his time trialling and climbing have both improved since arriving at Visma last season. 

Expect him and Simon Yates to be the final climbing domestiques for the Dane on the hardest mountains, with the three weeks of brutal racing in the latter's legs from the Giro suggesting that Jorgenson may play last man as he did in 2024. 

The Dauphiné will provide a closer look at his form ahead of the Tour, as he similarly supports Vingegaard there against Pogačar and Evenepoel.

7. Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)

While Ineos Grenadiers are no longer the GC force they once were at the Tour de France, the mix of young Spanish contender Carlos Rodríguez's ability to peak in July, and their new aggressive tactics in 2025, suggests that the British team could be in the fight for the podium.

Rodríguez has not yet shown his top form this season, with the time since the last ranking only seeing him add a sixth place at the Tour de Romandie, but his two top-seven finishes at the French Grand Tour, from just two attempts, maintain his position in the top ten.

The Giro showed the blueprint that we will likely see in July from the British squad, with Egan Bernal and co kicking the race into life with opportunist attacks on several occasions. It only ended with the former Tour winner finishing seventh overall, but it showed that Ineos were not going to simply wait to get beaten. 

Rodríguez will take inspiration from his one Tour stage victory in 2023, where he attacked late solo to beat Pogačar and Vingegaard on a descent into Morzine. Expect more of the same and at a greater frequency. He'll have the chance to test similar tactics at the Dauphiné this week and will want to improve on his stage race GC results of sixth and sixth this season.

Geraint Thomas, on his final Tour appearance, will likely co-lead with the Spaniard in France come July, and he'll be at the Tour de Suisse next week. In his typical fashion, he hasn't shown much GC promise yet this season, but he always brings his best in the three-week tests, shown as recently as last year's Giro, where he finished third.

8. Enric Mas (Movistar)

Movistar's Enric Mas may not be the flashiest GC contender, nor will he be come the start of the Tour, but he remains one of the most consistent racers over three weeks in the peloton, and will start his seventh Tour next month. 

The Spanish GC rider's best overall finish dates back to 2020, when he finished fifth, with his last three appearances ending in two DNFs and a 19th-place finish, but after all of those shortcomings, Mas followed it up with a top GC finish at La Vuelta a España.

In a similar fashion to Roglič, Mas will be hoping for good luck, and more importantly, his top-level to arrive in France, and his recent stage racing results suggest that the latter is on the way. 

Since our last ranking, his standout performance is finishing second at Itzulia Basque Country in April, losing out only to Almeida, and while his Ardennes Classics campaign wasn't successful, it's tended to be the longer races where Mas comes into his own.

He'll be looking to find his best form at the Dauphiné this week, testing his legs against Pogačar, Vingegaard and Evenepoel, with the queen stage 7 to Valmeinier 1800 being a crucial marker for how Mas' form is one month out from the Grand Départ.

9. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)

Lenny Martinez will lead the French hopes at the Tour de France in 2025, as the Bahrain Victorious youngster heads into his second tilt at his home Grand Tour.

At 21, Martinez is still developing his skills as a GC racer, but he's more than proved his potential to be the French star of the future with a string of impressive overall results this season. 

He made it onto our last ranking thanks to winning a mountain stage at Paris-Nice, despite finishing 24th on GC, but since then, he only kicked on with more complete performances at the Volta a Catalunya and Tour de Romandie. 

In northern Spain, Martinez finished fifth overall, one minute down on Roglič, who claimed the title, and at Romandie, he bettered that result by taking second on GC, 26 seconds down on Almeida.

The 21-year-old also won the queen stage at the latter to Thyon 2000, and has suggested that the pursuit of a stage win will be higher on his list of Tour ambitions, but having impressed perhaps at a quicker rate than expected as a GC contender, Martinez could be on the fast track to overall success.

10. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

Mattias Skjelmose was due to be one of the riders racing for a final time before the Tour at the Dauphiné, but untimely illness at the end of altitude camp left him "with a stomach infection," and "no real ability to eat or recover properly."

It's another setback, after crashes stalled some of his early-season progress, but Lidl-Trek's plan is to now have the Dane race the Tour de Suisse next week instead, to still get the race stimulus he needs ahead of the Grand Départ in Lille. He'll have the luxury of former Giro winner Tao Geoghegan Hart for support at both races.

Prior to this, Skjelmose has been on form at the Ardennes, claiming a thrilling win in one of the races of the season at Amstel Gold, beating Pogačar and Evenepoel to the line at the one-day Classic.

Come the Tour, while he will likely lack the climbing power to match the superstars once again, his ability to pick up bonus seconds in sprints between the GC favourites could prove vital to his overall placing. The Dane also has a strong time trial, which should guide him to a solid GC result, should he recover from illness and reach his peak.

Following his fifth-place finish at last year's Vuelta, which also brought him the best young rider's white jersey, Skjelmose will be hoping he can produce similarly at the Tour, as he continues his development at Lidl-Trek. 

11. Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla)

Ben O’Connor is yet to show his best in 2025, since he moved to his home Australian team Jayco AlUla, with his results since the last ranking not suggesting much of a boost before the Tour. 

Having finished a lacklustre 14th at Paris-Nice in March, he followed that up with 12th at the Volta a Catalunya, well away from his typical best. Perhaps they were two off weeks, or he was still adjusting to life on his new team, but nonetheless, O'Connor was missing something.

With the Ardennes Classics finishing similarly without any result to call home about, O'Connor will have one final chance to prove his form before the Tour de France, at the Tour de Suisse. 

He avoided the Tour in 2024, after two huge disappointments in 2023 and 2022, but impressed at both the Giro, where he finished fourth, and the Vuelta, where he nearly went all the way but ultimately lost out to Roglič, taking a brilliant second place overall.

O'Connor's best Tour result is, of course, his fourth from 2021, where a breakaway stage win saw him rise up the ranking, and close out the third week strong enough to stay up there. On his return to the Tour, and after his successes last year, he'll be eyeing up the top five.

Best of the rest

• Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) – finished third at the Giro, but wants to target stages and KOM jersey at the Tour
• Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers) – on the long list after third at Paris-Nice
• Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek) – possibly falling in favour behind teammate Skjelmose
• David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) – a fractured hand at Tirreno will hamper his prep
• Guillaume Martin (Groupama-FDJ) – disappointing at Paris-Nice
• Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) – promising at previous Tours