Who will win the 2025 Tour de France? Rankings the form of the favourites after Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

There are still three and a half months – and an entire Giro d’Italia – before the start of the 2025 Tour de France, but the peloton is very much already moving along the road to the Grand Départ, and the favourites are already laying down markers. 

Most riders have set which Grand Tour they are targeting, and after the big stage-racing week of Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico, the hierarchies, rivalries and early indicators of form are definitely becoming clear.

Traditionally the most important week of stage racing in the Spring, the Paris-Nice/Tirreno-Adriatico week was missing a few big names this year: Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) is not doing any more stage races until the Dauphiné as he focuses on the Classics, Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuckStep) is still on the recovery path from his off-season crash, and Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) has opted for the Volta a Catalunya as he builds towards a Giro-Tour double. 

However, that doesn’t mean there wasn’t lots to learn about the Tour contenders, and with almost all the favourites (bar Evenepoel) having started their season in some form already, we already know a lot about who will be in contention come July.

Will it be Pogačar vs Vingegaard yet again, or could another rider be seriously in the mix? Here’s our latest form guide to the contenders for the 2025 Tour de France. 

1. Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

As he was when we first ranked the contenders back in 2025, Tadej Pogačar is firmly at the top of the list of favourites to win the Tour de France. Perhaps unusually for a Tour contender – though Pogačar is definitely unusual – the Slovenian isn’t doing any more stage races this spring, having fairly easily won the UAE Tour in February and now racing a packed calendar of Flemish and Ardennes Classics. 

After the UAE Tour, he then won Strade Bianche in dramatic fashion, coming back from a crash to solo to victory in Siena. Whilst winning a one-day race doesn’t really directly correlate to how you might fare in a three-week tour, that triumph has proven that Pogačar is already firing on all cylinders, and if he keeps on succeeding through the spring, he will be on the right, if unorthodox, path to the Tour.

With Pogačar not racing in France or Italy last week, we don’t have a clear indicator of his stage-racing form right now. But that’s not really what’s important for him at the moment, and given who did win those two races – Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)  – it’s not hard to imagine that the Slovenian probably could have captured one of those races if he wanted to.

Pogačar is the defending Tour de France champion, the World Champion, and more or less the best rider in the peloton right now. So it’s hard to see him moving from the top spot of favourites before July.

2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Even though Jonas Vingegaard crashed out of Paris-Nice before the big climbs, we’re still putting him as second favourite for the Tour. For the last four editions, hardly anyone has been able to get close to the top pairing of Pogačar and Vingegaard, and there’s little reason to believe that will change this year.

A knock to the wrist in Paris-Nice should only be a very minor dent to the Dane’s preparation for the Tour, and at present he’s still expected to return to action at next week’s Volta a Catalunya, which will perhaps be a truer test of his form. In Paris-Nice, the stage where he took the race lead saw him beaten by João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) at the line, so perhaps he’s not quite on top form just yet, but that’s not a problem in March, particularly when he's yet to do his first altitude training camp this season. 

Vingegaard is a rider who traditionally builds into his best form, more so than the prolific Pogačar, and what Paris-Nice showed, perhaps more importantly, is his hunger to win and racing confidence. After last year’s disappointment, Vingegaard will be more driven than ever heading towards July, and is undeniably one of the very biggest favourites. 

3. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)

If the top two have been firm for a long time, then one rider whose stock has shot up after the last week is Paris-Nice winner Matteo Jorgenson, also of Visma-Lease a Bike. The American defended his 2024 title in emphatic fashion, and not only because Vingegaard crashed out. Jorgenson looked composed and in control the whole week, and reaffirmed after the race that his goal was always to win, even when teammate Vingegaard was still in the frame. 

In fact, the American’s victory even without the key climbing support that Vingegaard could have given makes his win even more impressive. Of course, the three-week Tour is a very different ask, and Jorgenson’s bigger build will put him slightly behind the pure climbers come July, but the signs are there that he could be a real threat. Even if Vingegaard remains in the driving seat, it’s not uncommon for super domestique to hold onto a top GC finish too, and Jorgenson, eighth in the 2024 Tour, seems the exact kind of rider who could do that in 2025. 

4. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Primoz Roglič is another rider who didn’t race at all last week, not because he’s following the Pogačar one-day route, but because he’s being careful to not overload himself ahead of tackling both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France. Targeting the Giro – which the 35-year-old Slovenian could very well win – would preclude many riders from a serious Tour GC bid, but Roglič is one of the riders who could feasibly perform well at both, as he’s very comfortable with a high volume of Grand Tour race days.

He’s only raced once this year, at the Volta ao Algarve where he came eighth, but we wouldn’t expect a Giro-Tour contender to be firing so early on in the season, so this isn’t a worrying sign. The Tour victory has always eluded Roglič for one reason or another, but he’s extremely experienced and still a top climber, so perhaps removing some pressure by focusing on the Giro will serve him well. In any case, a top five should always be within his capabilities if he can make it to Paris unscathed. 

5. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)

Soudal-QuickStep’s star rider Remco Evenepoel is probably the biggest mystery on this list, given he’s yet to race in 2025 after a crash in the off-season, and won’t start for another month. In fact, he’s not set to ride a stage race until the Dauphiné, so it could be a long time before we have any idea of his form going into the Tour.

With this in mind, it may be bold to include him so high up this list, but previous performances mean he can’t be counted out, even with a disrupted lead-in to the race. Still only young, Evenepoel is becoming an extremely consistent stage racer, and he was highly impressive in his debut Tour last year. He will go into the race with a stark lack of race days, but in the modern era, training can do just as much as racing can, and the two time trials will benefit him ahead of many of his rivals. He’ll need to work hard to get back to his best, but a top result is not unlikely for Evenepoel.

6. João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Like Jorgenson, João Almeida is a rider who will be hoping to follow in the Adam Yates mould of being a super domestique but still securing a big GC result, and his performance at Paris-Nice should give him a boost for the Tour.

A strong Grand Tour rider, Almeida is set for a tilt at full leadership at the Vuelta a España, with GC not his main concern at the Tour where he’ll work for Pogačar, but history tells us that being a domestique and finishing high in the GC are not necessarily mutually exclusive. His key rival for second fiddle at UAE Team Emirates, Tirreno winner Juan Ayuso, won’t be at the Tour, so this is a good opportunity for the Portuguese rider to work for Pogačar but also keep one eye on his own position. 

His GC placing suffered at Paris-Nice after losing time in the crosswinds, but he outclimbed Vingegaard to win stage 4 and his stinging sprint after long climbs is looking very threatening this season. In a race like the Tour where every second counts, this could be his key to a good top-10 placing. 

7. Carlos Rodríguez (Ineos Grenadiers)

Currently out with a fractured collarbone, Carlos Rodríguez sits in this list exactly where he finished in the Tour last year – seventh. The Spaniard is yet to podium in a Grand Tour, but is getting more consistent every year, and experience is often key when it comes to the Tour de France. Breaking his collarbone at the UAE Tour has been a small setback

Rodríguez may now find that he has to fight for his role a little against Thymen Arensman, who took third at Paris-Nice and is set for the Giro, but is also very much on the Ineos longlist for the Tour. The ideal scenario would be to have the Dutchman, and possibly Egan Bernal, as domestiques, and the retiring Geraint Thomas as a road captain, sharing his expertise on how to win the Tour. Rodríguez isn’t down to race again until April, but don’t forget about him for the Tour.

8. Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)

Another Paris-Nice success story, albeit with the major reservation of his losing so much time on the echelon stage, Lenny Martinez has just gone from never winning a WorldTour race to probably France’s current best hope for the Tour after the likes of David Gaudu and Guillaume Martin faltered last week. Whilst his GC result was only 24th after being caught out at some key moments, he showed some real strength to win stage 5, and then finish ahead of Jorgenson on the summit finish to Auron.

He’s fairly untested when it comes to targeting the GC in Grand Tours, but he’s clearly finding a good vein of form at his new home Bahrain Victorious, and should definitely be dreaming of a strong ride this July. Having the support of the home nation should help, too.

9. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)

Mattias Skjelmose was the victim of a very unfortunate crash on stage 7 of Paris-Nice, but his lack of a GC result belies how well he was going, and what he could have achieved. The young Dane was sitting third overall when he crashed out, partly thanks to some monster teamwork especially from Mads Pedersen. He was not only climbing with the best but crucially, his Lidl-Trek team were unfazed in the tough, hectic moments – something which is completely key when it comes to winning the Tour de France. 

Fifth in the Vuelta last year, Skjelmose is only improving his Grand Tour pedigree, and the Lidl-Trek directors will have a hard time choosing between him and the so far not-too-exciting Tao Geoghegan Hart when it comes to leadership in July. 

10. Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla)

Ben O’Connor moved to Jayco AlUla seemingly to have a stronger team for the Tour, but his performance at Paris-Nice has seen him only just hold onto a spot in this top 10. The Australian and his team performed well in the team time trial, but then he lost over two minutes on the day that was punctuated by a neutralisation and grim weather, and he never really recovered from that. The initial loss could be down to the stop-start and the cold, but he also failed to impress on any of the other climbs. Climbing to Auron a minute down on supposed sprinter Mads Pedersen was a low point. 

In the end he settled for 15th overall, but this isn’t really where he should be if he wants to be considered a top GC rider. It may have just been an off week for O’Connor, but if he wants to prove himself as a serious contender in July, he needs to put in a much better performance in one of his next races. 

Best of the rest

• Enric Mas (Movistar) – always consistent at the Tour 
• Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers) – on the long list after third at Paris-Nice
• Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek) – possibly falling in favour behind teammate Skjelmose
• David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) – a fractured hand at Tirreno will hamper his prep
• Guillaume Martin (Groupama-FDJ) – disappointing at Paris-Nice
• Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) – targeting the Giro but could surprise at the Tour
• Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) – promising at previous Tours