A wide open face-off between Evenepoel, Del Toro, Seixas, Van der Poel and more for the rainbow jersey – Analysing the World Championships elite men's road race contenders

As the UCI Road World Championships in Montreal, Canada, near a close, it means the headline events of the elite road races are quickly approaching, with the men's event on Sunday bringing only the best riders in the world together to fight for the title and the right to wear the coveted rainbow jersey.

All along, this race was expected to see Tadej Pogačar win his third world title in a row after his dominant solo successes in Zurich and Kigali. However, after he crashed out of the rest of the season at the Vuelta, it has opened the door for the sport's next best superstars.

Raced over 273.7km and taking in more than 3,800m of elevation gain across the 12 laps of the Mount Royal circuit and Camillien-Houde climb (2.3km at 6.2%), it should bring a true war of attrition, where only the strongest riders survive.

As stated, we won't have a repeat champion, but there isn't an obvious answer to the question of who will be Pogačar's successor in 2026. Elite climbers, puncheurs and Classics specialists are all in the mix, with tactics and how national teams utilise their leading stars set to prove vital.

To get a better understanding of who could end up in the rainbow bands by the time the dust settles on Sunday evening, we've taken a closer look at the big names and how they stack up against each other for the big event – here are our favourites for the men's elite road race at the 2026 UCI Road World Championships.

Remco Evenepoel (Belgium)

When it comes to completeness for the Montreal course, Belgium's Remco Evenepoel is the obvious choice as the favourite, as one of the very best climbers, who also packs a serious punch, is more than capable in a sprint, and is the most dangerous solo attacker in the world.

With several potential routes to victory, Evenepoel will have a target on his back throughout Sunday's race, knowing full well that he won't be allowed to simply slip away into a move – in theory that is – especially after doing just that and going on to win his first road race world title back in 2022 in Wollongong.

The big problem for his rivals, though, is that stopping him from doing exactly that is far easier said than done, as his aerodynamic advantage and incredible time trialling abilities – winning a fourth world title in a row last weekend – mean that even if they fail to match his initial acceleration, that could already prove too late to bring him back.

Yes, Evenepoel has been pursuing GC titles and time trials throughout his career, but it should not be forgotten that he is an absolutely elite one-day racer, winning Liège-Bastogne-Liège twice, Amstel Gold Race, Clasica San Sebastian four times, the Worlds four years ago as already stated, and most recently the GP Quebec in the build-up to Sunday.

He was also second behind Pogačar at Worlds, Europeans, and Il Lombardia last season, all of them solo, suggesting that he – in theory – should be too strong for everyone and will ride away, but it won't be that easy. Those races mentioned had much harder courses than Montreal in terms of climbing, and with Pogačar opening them up so early, Evenepoel earned those runner-up places through brute force – it's the tactics where he could come unstuck.

The trump card in favour of him and Belgium emerging on top, just as legendary compatriot Eddy Merckx did in Montreal in 1974, is that he has Wout van Aert for company as a co-leader, making up for a combination, which, yes, has gone wrong at Worlds in the past, at Leuven 2021, but has also been fruitful, in Wollongong and at the Paris Olympics in 2024.

Isaac del Toro (Mexico)

Whoever was going to win the 214km taster for Worlds at the GP de Montreal was always going to end up as a top favourite for the rainbow jersey, but the way Isaac del Toro raced has bumped him right up this list, showing great strength and composure to outduel Paul Seixas for the victory.

Del Toro is at a disadvantage in that his Mexico team won't have anywhere near the same strength in depth as those from the bigger Cycling nations, but his biggest advantage is himself, already established as one of the best riders in the world at just 22.

His improvement has been exponential, and there's nothing to say he couldn't end up as the World Champion in two days' time, with his elite climbing and powerful sprint putting him right up there.

Impressively riding to seventh in Rwanda last year, Del Toro is a much stronger rider now, and it looks likely he will have the power to follow any big move that goes on Sunday; it's just whether the numeric advantage of teams like Belgium and the USA ends up seeing him burn too many matches.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG may have lost an almost certain hope for the rainbow jersey with Pogačar out, but in Del Toro, it's likely that cycling's top team could still end up with the World Champion among their ranks, but in their heir apparent instead of the current king.

Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands)

Count out Mathieu van der Poel at your own risk. A former road World Champion from Glasgow in 2023, the Dutchman is heading towards Montreal 2026 in stellar form, albeit on a course that shouldn't particularly suit him.

Yes, laps of a circuit sounds akin to that from Scotland, but the climbing difficulty is majorly ramped up in Canada, making it likely that any scorching moves from an Evenepoel or Del Toro could prove too much for the Dutchman.

But Van der Poel's tactical advantage as one of the best one-day riders in history places him right among the top favourites. Those top climbers could prove to be too closely matched, and any cagey action will allow Van der Poel to both catch back up and pounce, and once he knows victory is back on the table, there is probably no rider that can turn themself inside out as much as he can.

Early attacks and a true war of attrition will move the balance away from the Dutchman, but he was able to keep coming back over a course with more climbing packed in in Zurich to finish third, so counting him out seems foolish.

And as much as he says his recent eye-watering 174km solo win in Luxembourg doesn't change anything, it certainly told everyone that his modesty is also matched by some degree of confidence. But Sunday will be very different for Van der Poel, as it will be more about surviving to the latter laps and hoping he still has something left, though it's not out of the question at all that he takes a second title.

Paul Seixas (France)

Paul Seixas turned 20 on Thursday, but as he's proved throughout his second season as a pro, his age does not mean he can't compete with the top riders in the world, and he'll be looking to become the youngest-ever winner of the men's elite road race on Sunday.

After an incredible season, where he's scorched a path to the top by winning Itzulia Basque Country and La Flèche Wallonne, finishing second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège and Strade Bianche, and finishing fourth overall on debut at the Tour de France, Seixas could well become World Champion.

He's shown strong shape in the build-up, too, finishing third in the Worlds time trial last weekend, but also taking second in the important form-marking GP de Montréal, where he was among the strongest riders, but ultimately got overhauled by a more tactically astute and powerful Del Toro.

Seixas has a great French team behind him, including the likes of Pavel Sivakov, Bruno Armirail, and Valentin Paret-Peintre, but it's the tactics where he could face problems. At times, he can be guilty of doing too much work in a group; it's likely that Seixas has to be solo if he wants to win the title.

He's improved at such an incredible rate, though, it wouldn't be overly surprising to see him take the lessons from that defeat to Del Toro into action in the big event. What's certain is that he will want the race to be as attritional as possible, so expect France to be on full attack for their young superstar.

Wout van Aert (Belgium)

After two years away from Worlds, Wout van Aert returns to take on the road race, and in some of the best form of his career, fresh off the back of a stunning Vuelta a España, where he was back at his world-beating best to win two stages, the points jersey, and the supercombativity prize.

Riding as co-leader alongside Evenepoel, the course isn't as suited to him as the heavier Classics specialist, but Van Aert has long been a rider for all terrains, and was climbing more than well enough in Spain to suggest he can survive the brutal laps in Montreal.

Twice a runner-up in the elite men's road race, Van Aert has been close to the big prize before in 2020 and 2023, but he has something in 2026 that he didn't have in those previous near-misses – he's won Paris-Roubaix.

Perhaps freed by that incredible, emotional win at cycling's arguably biggest one-day race, if anything can unlock Van Aert and see him finally become road World Champion, the confidence he took from beating Pogačar in the velodrome in April might be just that.

Another true versatile rider, Van Aert, like Evenepoel, can win from a small group sprint or solo, so he should make a dangerous combination with the 2022 champion. But they must work together to ensure they don't cancel each other out, as keeping two star riders near the front for when the likes of Del Toro and Seixas are kicking off could prove essential.

Tom Pidcock (Great Britain)

In Tom Pidcock, Great Britain have a great chance at taking their first elite men's road race victory since Mark Cavendish back in 2011, with the punchy Yorkshireman more than well-suited to the Montreal course.

His previous best result was sixth in 2021, and he was 10th last year, but Pidcock has shown several times this season that his capabilities as a one-day racer are still on the rise: most notably by pushing Pogačar to the absolute limit at Milan-San Remo, but also by winning Milano-Torino, and finishing fourth and sixth at the GPs de Québec and Montréal.

Pidcock is another top contender whose versatility makes him a dangerous prospect going into the final laps in Montreal, as he can get away on the uphill or downhill, and still beat you in a sprint even if he's caught.

With the likes of Adam Yates and Oscar Onley to support him, the British team should be represented in numbers when the race is inevitably blown to pieces by one of Belgium or France, and Pidcock will most likely be waiting in the wings to pounce, should he have the legs.

He has the advantage from his multi-disciplinary racing of knowing very well how best to race on instinct without teammates, so the lack of race radios should be no problem for him too if things are really selective towards the finale.

Quinn Simmons & Brandon McNulty (USA)

The USA men have a huge chance of winning the road race on Sunday, or as Kevin Vermaerke described it to Cyclingnews: "probably our best shot at a win since Lance Armstrong won in '93 [in Oslo]".

Without a real clear leader, the US have three elite riders who could threaten a solo victory in the final 50km: Quinn Simmons, former GP de Montréal winner Brandon McNulty, and Matteo Jorgenson.

Simmons and McNulty especially were very active throughout the Grands Prix, both finishing in the top five of both races, but just missing that bit of punch to go with the big moves made by Evenepoel, Seixas and Del Toro.

But they will know that going into Sunday, and will most definitely be trying to get one of their star names up the road, hoping to anticipate and benefit from the other top teams marking each other.

Once the selections have been made in the 270km race, Simmons and McNulty should both be among the constant attackers trying to go solo, and if the rainbow jersey is still on the line at that point, it could well bring the US their first win in this event in 33 years.

Giulio Ciccone & Giulio Pellizzari (Italy)

The Italian team is another filled with options who could end up in a final selection on Sunday, but the standouts are Giulio Ciccone, Giulio Pellizzari, and Christian Scaroni.

Ciccone is the best one-day racer among them, finishing in the top 10 of the GP de Québec and Montréal in the build-up, but also taking sixth at last year's Worlds. On his best day, Ciccone can live with the biggest moves and has a powerful sprint to match it, which could make him a huge threat if tactics cause the race to end from a reduced group.

22-year-old Pellizzari is more of an unknown quantity when it comes to Worlds, but he's been in great form in the lead-up, winning the Giro della Toscana and finishing second at the Memorial Marco Pantani; while he is one of the top climbers in the world, this will be his debut in the elite road race.

Scaroni too will be on debut, but he is one of the most consistent performers in one-day races in the peloton, finishing in the top 10 of 14 from the 19 he's raced in 2026. This includes fourth at the Clasica San Sebastian, eighth at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and sixth at Trofeo Laigueglia.

Outside of these three, Italy also have young superstar Lorenzo Finn, riding his first elite Worlds after all-but-completing Under-23 racing, Alberto Bettiol, and former runner-up Matteo Trentin [from Harrogate 2029].

Ben Healy (Ireland)

Ben Healy's trajectory at the Worlds road race, finishing seventh in Zurich 2024 and then third in Kigali last season, suggests that a rainbow jersey isn't too far away for the Irishman.

An elite one-day racer, Healy is perfectly suited to the racing in the road race as an opportunistic solo attacker, who will be looking to anticipate and get ahead at any moment presented to him. And with no race radios, it basically means his rivals can't let him out of their sight.

While probably not the strongest in terms of climbing or punchiness, Healy's racecraft is what puts him in the running to win these biggest one-day races, also finishing second at Amstel Gold and third at Liège throughout his career.

The one problem for Healy, though, is that he hasn't actually taken a victory this season, so jumping from that to the rainbow jersey could appear far-fetched. However, it's when you underestimate him that he's at his most dangerous – certainly expect Healy to be on the attack on Sunday; he won't be waiting for those superstars mentioned above to just beat him.

Honourable mentions

Of course, without Pogačar, the openness of this race means that several more riders are in contention for the victory than was originally thought.

Jhonatan Narváez (Ecuador) stands out as an obvious option and elite racer, also from the UAE Team Emirates-XRG trade team, especially if racing comes back together – the same can be said of Australia's Michael Matthews, who loves racing in Canada.

Coming from his historic overall triumph at the Vuelta a España, Enric Mas could well return to his previous best one-day racing from 2022 and be in the running. Spain also have Juan Ayuso, who would have been a main contender, but has dropped down the rankings after his recent crash in Quebec.

Depending on how difficult the race is made, it brings more of the elite climbing force into play, the likes of Florian Lipowitz (Germany), and Vuelta podium finishers Primož Roglič (Slovenia) and Felix Gall (Austria).

Finally, Toms Skujiņš (Latvia) is a shoo-in to finish in the top 10, as he has done the past three seasons, but also from one of the smaller European nations, Mathias Vacek (Czechia) could prove to be a dangerous threat if he isn't dropped on the climbs.

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