Some big absentees, but plenty of quality and a favourite with a question mark – Analysing the European Championships men's road race contenders

After the drama of the World Championships last weekend, there's more major national-team title-fight racing coming up with the European Championships, and we're taking a closer look at the potential winners of the elite men's road race on Sunday.

The European Championships road race occupies an awkward slot on the calendar, coming one week after Worlds, one week ahead of Il Lombardia, and in the middle of a number of other one-day races in Italy. That, along with a reticence from some trade teams to release key riders for two big events in national colours, has left the start list slightly diluted.

There are also some nations, including Great Britain (who would have had a big contender in Tom Pidcock), who aren't fielding squads at all due to limited resources. Paul Seixas, Mathieu van der Poel, and Wout van Aert are all skipping the race, and when you factor in that the big pre-race favourite and home star for these Slovenian Euros, Tadej Pogačar, is out injured, then the gloss has been slightly scrubbed off the event.

And yet, we do still have a strong list of big names, including Remco Evenepoel, and as we saw at Worlds, Pogačar's absence is perhaps a blessing in disguise in terms of the entertainment factor of the racing itself.

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After the dramatic World Championships road race, making predictions about the European Championships course seems risky business. This is less hilly overall, with 2,500 metres of elevation gain compared to the 3,800m on the Worlds course. However, the climbing is more condensed, with a total distance of 196km, and that’s before you remember that all the climbing comes in the second half.

The first half of the route heading out from Ljubljana is flat, and then the riders will take on five laps of the finishing circuit around Šenčur, which includes the critical climb of Možjanca, which boasts an average gradient of over 10% but which is more than a mere punch, dragging on for just over 2km.

Especially with fresher legs deep into the race, it should be selective, but then again there are over 12km from the top of the climb to the finish, including a rolling plateau, then a descent, and a final flat 5km.

It will come down to the way it is raced on the day, and without further ado, here are the riders we expect to be the chief protagonists.

Remco Evenepoel (Belgium)

In the absence of Tadej Pogačar, the status of out-and-out favourite ought to fall to Remco Evenepoel. And yet it’s not quite so simple as that. The Belgian fell horribly flat last Sunday at a World Championships that, with no Pogačar, should have been at his mercy.

Evenepoel did not hide that he knew he was on a bad day, but we still don’t know much more than that – whether it was a simple blip or something like an illness that could well have a knock-on effect for this coming Sunday.

What’s clear, though, is that if he’s anywhere near top form again – and the way he blitzed the Worlds time trial, his overarching shape cannot be questioned – this is Evenepoel’s race to lose. After all, this was the rider who was clearly the best-of-the-rest behind Pogačar at Europeans, Worlds, and Il Lombardia last autumn. Plus, many key European threats from last weekend aren’t racing this time, including Paul Seixas, Tom Pidcock, Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert.

The climb here looks perfect for Evenepoel to attack on, and we know that once he gets a gap, he’s incredibly hard to bring back. He also has a decent sprint, as he showed in winning the GP de Québec recently.

What’s more, Evenepoel has no fewer than seven strong Belgians by his side, and they are sure to take control of the race and tee him up when he decides it's best. Evenepoel is the top favourite by some distance, but still a question mark.

Primož Roglič (Slovenia)

No Pogačar, no problem? Slovenia have suffered a huge blow for their home European Championships, with the defending champion and the world’s top rider Tadej Pogačar ruled out through injury. Pogačar was incredibly eager to race on home soil, so much so that he reportedly called up his surgeon to see if he might be able to make an early comeback. It wasn’t to be, and the race is left without the rider who was overwhelmingly likely to win it.

And yet, there’s no despair for the home nation, who have a number of credible options. First and foremost is Primož Roglič, who has hit a purple patch of form amid question marks over the future of his career. The 36-year-old finished runner-up at the Vuelta a España and played an active role at the World Championships in the early move led by Mathieu van der Poel.

Roglič faded towards the end of Worlds, but the Europeans is a good 75km shorter, so that should be less of an issue. And on paper, the course suits him well, the climb being steep but also sustained. What’s more, Roglič seems to have found a new lease of life, a laboured out-of-contract figure making way for a more laid-back and carefree presence since his unexpectedly good Vuelta.

Giulio Ciccone and the Italians

While Belgium are set up exclusively behind Remco Evenepoel, the strongest block of the European Championships is arguably Italy, who could look to play the numbers game against the one big favourite.

They nearly did it at the World Championships, and a similar trio of protagonists is back again this time around: Giulio Ciccone, Giulio Pellizzari, and Christian Scaroni.

Ciccone was Italy’s top finisher at Worlds, placing ninth after going clear with Tom Pidcock on the final climb of Côte Camillien-Houde – a move that looked like it would bring the gold medal back into play until the group expanded and stalled. Pellizzari and Scaroni had looked to get into the earlier moves, and it will have been frustrating that Scaroni was in the initial key early break before Wout van Aert split it down.

In the end, the USA combined legs with flawless team tactics and spirit to pull off an unlikely Worlds victory, but it will have inspired several other teams to race in that manner. And in that respect Italy look the best placed to try something similar on Sunday.

Ciccone is the biggest name and the likeliest winner, as a seasoned hilly Classics contender, but the 22-year-old Pellizzari also has abundant quality plus a win at the recent Giro della Toscana, while Scaroni has been placing high at the hilly one-dayers all year.

Juan Ayuso (Spain)

Juan Ayuso heads up Spain's squad in Slovenia. The 24-year-old ran out of legs in the end at Worlds but still placed a respectable 13th and should have higher hopes on a shorter course at the Europeans.

Ayuso has had a rollercoaster debut season at Lidl-Trek, but there have been regular reminders of his world-class ability, and he’s aiming for a late-season peak after the slightly disappointing seventh place he secured at the Tour de France.

His best results have come in stage races, but he has also won a number of mid-level one-day events, and was a top-10 finisher at both the World and European Championships last year. He hasn't quite grasped the superstar status he seemed destined for, but he's not one to underestimate.

Romain Grégoire (France)

There’s no Paul Seixas for France – he’s focusing on his Il Lombardia build-up – so we’re without last year’s third-place finisher and a rider who, even at 20 years old, would have been a top favourite.

Seixas cramped up in the finale of Worlds, but this European Championship will be nearly two hours shorter, and given the way he beat Remco Evenepoel at Liège-Bastogne-Liège earlier this summer, this seems to be a big opportunity he’s passing up in Pogačar’s absence.

The French will have a more open strategy with a squad that includes Kévin Vauquelin, Mathys Rondel, and Pavel Sivakov, but their best bet is surely their national champion Romain Grégoire. Not selected for Worlds, he leads the line here and possesses the characteristics for the circuit’s key climb. He’s much more of a puncheur than a climber, but if the race isn’t too attritional, then he can certainly be a factor.

Gregoire hasn’t set the world alight since taking the tricolour jersey, but he was great in the spring, winning the Drome Classic before placing fourth at Strade Bianche, Brabantse Pijl, and Amstel Gold Race, as well as collecting top-10s at La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

Mads Pedersen (Denmark)

After what happened last Sunday, there is simply no ruling out Mads Pedersen. Towards the end of a mind-boggling World Championships, Pedersen – barely seen all day – suddenly appeared in the group fighting for the medals. It was a reminder of Pedersen’s class, and of the way you shouldn’t rule anything out in a Championship race.

Everyone thought the Worlds circuit in Montreal was one for the climbers, but Pedersen, who won the green jersey of this year’s Tour de France, was there at the end with Mathieu van der Poel and Michael Matthews.

Can the same happen again here? It’s hard to say. The climb (2.1km at 10%) seems too steep and long for Pedersen to cling on when the attacks fly. And yet, there are more than 12km between the top of the final climb and the finish line, with a couple of kilometres of rolling roads followed by a descent and a flat run-in.

In other words, if the situation becomes tactical, there is enough time for things to come back together on the final lap and allow someone like Pedersen back into the frame.

There is another complicating factor, in that Pedersen is racing the Münsterland Giro the day before, which is hardly ideal preparation, but he’s a rider you can’t dismiss.

Other riders to watch

• Even without Pogačar, Slovenia have a strong team, which includes former Milan-San Remo winner Matej Mohorič, but more excitingly, Jakob Omrzel, the 20-year-old who broke out with a stage win at the Vuelta. He skipped Worlds as he recovered from the Vuelta, but if he can shake off that fatigue while hanging onto some of that form gained by the end of his first three-week race, he could very much be a dark horse.
• We've picked out Gregoire as the leader for France, but they have a fair few riders who could make an impact, even in the absence of Paul Seixas, Benoît Cosnefroy, and Lenny Martinez. Kevin Vauquelin hasn't had the best of seasons but suits the profile for a course like this, while 23-year-old climber Mathys Rondel is having a great season. They also have the classy Pavel Sivakov, the rising star Léo Bisiaux, and yet another potential animator in Alex Baudin.
• Pedersen is the star name for Denmark, but Anton Charmig is in the form of his life – he was on the podium at GP de Québec and was in the thick of it at Worlds. Mikkel Honoré has also made a strong comeback from a long lay-off and made the top 20 at Worlds.
• Swiss champion Jan Christen could potentially be in the mix if he can rediscover his form from earlier in the season.
• Toms Skujinš hasn't been producing his remarkable Classics form of the past few years, but the Latvian isn't a million miles away.
• Germany have the in-form Vuelta stage winner Marco Brenner and the experienced Max Schachmann.
• Mathias Vacek isn't the most sprightly climber, but the Czech rider could still play a role if the race is open.

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