Evenepoel and Del Toro the favourites, but Il Lombardia is wide open – Analysing the contenders

The final Monument of the 2026 season, Il Lombardia, is upon us and we have a fantastic race in prospect thanks to a fascinating array of contenders, who we're going to delve into right here.

There's nowhere else to start than with an absentee, Tadej Pogačar. The Slovenian has won this race five years in a row, and so his absence leaves a void in which a very different Lombardia should emerge – at least compared to the last couple of processions.

We've been adjusting to a Pogačar-less racing scene in recent weeks, and for all that it's a shame to have the world's biggest star on the sidelines, the racing has undeniably been more open, tactical, and interesting as a result.

That's what we're expecting to see again on Saturday, at a 120th edition of the Race of the Falling Leaves that follows the Bergamo to Como direction on a 239km route with a finale over the Madonna del Ghisallo, San Fermo della Battaglia, and Civiglio climbs.

We arguably have two top favourites – though neither so superior as Pogačar – and a rich array of names who will all feel they have a shot at a Monument on Saturday afternoon.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

After winning the European road race title, the Belgian has steadied the ship that listed so dramatically in the World Championship, and as such he starts as one of the top two favourites. As Worlds underlined, Evenepoel is a rider who can blow extremely hot and extremely cold. A one-pitch, know-what-you're-getting Pogačar he is not, but then again, that's part of what makes him such a compelling bike rider.

In a Pogačar-less world, Evenepoel – a former world champion, two-time winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège and five-time winner of the Clásica San Sebastián – ought to be the next man up. 12 months ago, he soloed to second place behind Pogačar rather convincingly, as he did repeatedly last autumn. But despite bouncing back from that off-day at Worlds, you sense Evenepoel is not quite at the height of his powers.

The Europeans felt like a good example of a race he might have won solo at his peak. Indeed, he had to outsprint Giulio Ciccone for the second time in just a few weeks. Now, Evenepoel's sprint is an underrated weapon that only broadens the way in which he can win these big races, but you can't help but feel that the more we've been impressed by it, the more we've seen it in action, and the less that means he's actually been able to get away.

Even so, he remains one of the very top favourites to finally win a race that he looked like he might have won as a 20-year-old in 2020.

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

The rainbows may be wrapped around the torso of Brandon McNulty, and while the US rider will have more freedom than if Pogačar were present, it's Isaac del Toro who represents the best shot for UAE Team Emirates and a joint favourite alongside Evenepoel.

Del Toro has all the tools to win this race. As the Tour de France runner-up, he has the climbing legs. As the winner of nearly every late-season Italian classic last year, he knows what he's doing in this punchy part of the world. And as the winner of the GP de Montréal in a sprint, he has the finishing speed to win if he has company.

Del Toro has had a remarkable season in which he has won three WorldTour stage races, finished on the podium of his first Tour de France, and won a WorldTour one-dayer at Montreal. His performance at the World Championships in the same location was widely debated and shot through with allegations, and while we will take his ride at face value, there were tactical question marks that – like we saw at the Giro last year – could do with being ironed out.

But on his day he is just the complete package, an electric racer, and he has a huge opportunity here to take the biggest win of his career so far.

Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

It would be rude not to give the world champion his own section. After all, Brandon McNulty's Worlds win, though highly tactical, was no stroke of fortune. He has largely operated as a domestique, but the immense talent that was evident so early in his career has never been far from the surface, and he had racked up a very respectable palmarès even before the world title.

Since he pulled on that rainbow jersey, he has looked invigorated. Some of it might have something to do with Pogačar's recent absence, but he's been launching attacks left, right, and centre in a sign that the jersey is not weighing him down with any sort of onus of suddenly winning all the time now, but rather giving him a boost of confidence and a spring in his step.

It will be interesting to see how he dovetails with Del Toro. The Mexican might be the standout favourite, but Pogačar is not back yet, and while that's the case there's room for McNulty to go after this race, and perhaps make a bit of a statement over his status in the pecking order at UAE.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

The Frenchman takes to Lombardia to round out one of the most extraordinary seasons we've seen in recent years, one in which he rose to the top echelon of the sport and became the most hyped man in professional cycling.

Seixas looks likely to win this race in the future – you could say that about a lot of races – and while it wouldn't be a total shock to see him do it this year, excitement surrounding the recently-turned 20-year-old has dampened somewhat compared to his blistering Spring.

Back then, he was genuinely looking like the second-best rider in the world with runner-up finishes behind Pogačar at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège, either side of a complete evisceration of the Itzulia Basque Country field. He was fast-tracked into his Tour de France debut, and since then a touch off the gloss has worn off, with a more subdued racing style and a level just a notch lower.

That's no slant on Seixas. Fourth on debut at the Tour de France at 19 is still otherworldly, and he only lost the GP de Montréal in a sprint against Isaac del Toro. But the World Championships, where he cramped in the finale, highlighted some - to be expected - limitations, and also the level of pressure he puts on his own shoulders, berating himself for riding like a schoolkid.

However it lands, and he has all the tools to win it, Lombardia represents the final act of a breakthrough season and the start of a reset that may well lead to a different beast in 2027.

Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)

The Italian may feel he should be racing Il Lombardia in a white and blue jersey with golden stars on it, but amid his doubts surrounding the photo finish from the European Championships road race last weekend, he can have few doubts about his form.

Ciccone has shown his one-day shape is where it needs to be in recent weeks. As at the Europeans, he was out-sprinted only by Evenepoel at the end of the QP de Québec, and he was sixth at Worlds after looking momentarily like he might make his way across to McNulty alongside Tom Pidcock on the final lap.

It's hard to see him winning in an outright sprint against some of the riders on this list, but as shown by the way he took the fight to Evenepoel at Europeans, he has the race craft to make different things happen. When he's in this form and this mood, Ciccone is fantastic to watch. And after the Europeans, he may even be riding with a little extra fire in his belly, which, for a rider who has always ridden on emotion, might just make an all-important difference.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5)

You never quite know what you're going to get with Tom Pidcock, which is probably why he's so exciting to watch. On his day, he's world-class, as evidenced by a palmarès that includes Strade Bianche, Amstel Gold Race, and a Grand Tour podium, along with all his off-road titles.

His challenge to Pogačar at Milan-San Remo this Spring was another reminder of the levels he can reach on his day. But he can also look pretty ordinary, make mistakes, or fade away in big races.

It can be hard to read his form, but it looks pretty good. He had a subdued Tour de France and then won the Mountain Bike Worlds, so it's been a tight one to adjust for a late-season full of hilly one-day races, but he seems to have done a decent job, winning on comeback at the GP Industria & Artigianato and featuring prominently in every race since, with podiums at Tre Valli Varesine and Giro dell'Emilia.

He was also top 10 at the GPs de Québec and Montréal, and in the World Championships, where he was one of the very strongest in the group behind McNulty.

He was also the most generous, and that's probably the most reliable thing about Pidcock – that he'll commit and go all-in for the win rather than playing games and riding for the podium. With no co-leader on his level at Pinarello Q36.5, it leaves him slightly exposed, and he may find himself in awkward situations on Saturday once again. But if he can take that small step towards his sparkling best, then he is well in with a shout of a first Monument title.

Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Matteo Jorgenson has looked incredibly strong in recent weeks – just a vision of perfect posture and, in contrast to some of the more spritely climbers on this list, pure seated horsepower. The World Championships would indicate that Jorgenson would thrive in a more grinding, attritional affair, but he still had the punch to follow Tom Pidcock's decisive acceleration at Tre Valli Varesine.

The big weakness in Jorgenson's arsenal is his sprint finish. He barely has one. So he'd need to win alone. And that's certainly not out of the question given the lack of Pogačar and given the potential room for tactical manoeuvre.

In that respect, we need to highlight Visma's two-pronged approach, with Davide Piganzoli another credible candidate for the Lombardia title. More on the young Italian in a minute, but what's clear already from the past few races is how well they've combined. Piganzoli, of course, won the Giro dell'Emilia, and much like Brandon McNulty's world title, it was massively aided and abetted by Jorgenson's presence, strength, and actions in the group behind.

The pair both attacked in the finale of Tre Valli Varesine, and this time it was Jorgenson who got to play the finale, but was third in the three-man sprint. Is Jorgenson just the perfect second fiddle, or can he become the main man in Como?

Davide Piganzoli (Visma-Lease a Bike)

We've mentioned some of Piganzoli's results, and his collaboration with Jorgenson, but the 24-year-old Italian deserves his own slot on this list. He has had a fantastic breakthrough season, shining as the top mountain domestique at the Giro d'Italia won by his teammate Jonas Vingegaard, and finishing eighth himself in the process.

He was then drafted into the Tour de France squad late on, and in truth he was unable to reach his Giro form at any point during the race, but still ended up in 14th place overall. He went on to win the Tour of Luxembourg – his second stage race title of the season after the Route d'Occitanie – before his brilliantly-taken solo victory at the Giro dell'Emilia, which has propelled him up the list of contenders for Il Lombardia.

Jarno Widar (Lotto-Intermarché)

Are we getting carried away here? I'm not so sure. The 20-year-old Belgian just won his first pro race, at Tre Valli Varesine, outsprinting two riders higher up this list in the process. With that, he has put himself at the forefront of our minds ahead of Il Lombardia.

And yet, he is far from a reliable contender for this race. For starters, it's his first Monument, his first real test in a race as heavy as this in terms of distance and climbing. Secondly, the stunning talent that Widar showed in the U23 ranks has only come through in patches this season (which is absolutely fair enough). Thirdly, Widar is more of a puncheur than a climber, and while the climbs individually suit him, it's far from a given he'll stay the course here.

That said, it was only recently that he was the best of the rest behind Pogačar on a big mountain stage of the Vuelta to Andorra. And when it comes to a sprint, he showed in mid-week that he has one of the best. He may have surprised Pidcock at Tre Valli, but the Briton responded quickly and got nowhere near him.

It could go one of two ways, and while he might fall away completely, you wouldn't count him out of being in podium contention.

Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)

Ben Healy hasn't hit the heights he did during his fantastic run of form in 2025, but there have been signs that he's getting back there after a difficult 2026 campaign. The Irishman was 8th at GP de Montreal, 10th at Worlds, sixth at Giro dell'Emilia, and in the main group at Tre Valli Varesine.

He has been an attacking presence throughout. This is Ben Healy, after all, and that's not going to change. The question mark comes over how he uses those bullets. What we've seen in the past few years is a scattergun approach that has often rewarded him but elsewhere has seen him effectively set fire to whole mountains of energy. At Worlds, for example, he launched a big solo attack to reach the front of the race and by the time he'd done so the rest of the group were pretty much back there as well – a long time in the wind when he could have been in the same situation for a lot less money.

But that's what people love about Ben Healy, and if you don't take those risks, you perhaps don't get the rewards. He is capable of a top result here, but needs things to go his way for that magic bullet to land – you can be sure he's going to fire the shots.

Enric Mas (Movistar)

Enric Mas did not finish Worlds and was 29th at Giro dell'Emilia, but we're not going to forget about his stunning Vuelta a España performance all that quickly. The Spaniard filled the void left by Pogačar's early exit and dominated the rest of the race with physical and tactical prowess. Mas has had a really bumpy few years, but when it's his day, it really clicks, and he can look like he's on the cusp of those riders in the very top bracket. Just cast your minds back to the 2022 Lombardia – he was the only rider who could get near Pogačar, and he put up a decent fight in the two-way sprint for the title.

So while the past couple of races haven't been anything to write home about, Mas has performed here previously, his form can't have disappeared, and he has absolutely no pressure on his shoulders.

Christian Scaroni (XDS-Astana)

The Italian isn't the biggest star, but he has been operating at a consistently high level for a couple of years now, and he comes into Lombardia with a list of results that reads: 2nd at GP Industria & Artigianato, 3rd at Giro della Toscana, 4th at Coppa Sabatini, 18th at Worlds, 3rd at Europeans, 7th at Tre Valli Varesine. And his one-day record hasn't been far off those levels all year; he has only won one – at Challenge Mallorca – so far (though he did win the Green Mountain stage and the overall at the Tour of Oman).

He probably likes things a little punchier, so the long distance and the climbing load of Lombardia represent an even bigger hurdle to that top step of the podium. But then again, he was eighth and in the second group behind Pogačar at Liège-Bastogne-Liège in the spring.

It's difficult to see Scaroni winning, but he's definitely an outsider for the podium.

Other riders to watch

We focused on Evenepoel at the top of this piece, and he's definitely the focal point, but Red Bull's team is stacked with riders who might be leaders in other outfits: Florian Lipowitz, Jai Hindley, and Giulio Pellizzari.

We went big on Ciccone earlier, but Lidl-Trek also have Juan Ayuso, who is becoming increasingly inconsistent but has the raw talent to win this race, while Quinn Simmons may find it too climbing-intensive but is sure to show off the Stars and Stripes with an attacking display.

While we're on the subject of strong teams, none are in standout form but Bahrain Victorious are here with Antonio Tiberi, Lenny Martinez, Santiago Buitrago, Pello Bilbao, and Jakob Omrzel.

Oscar Onley was a protagonist at Worlds, was third at Giro dell'Emilia, and looks like Netcompany-Ineos best bet here.

EF Education-EasyPost also have the small matter of a former Olympic champion in Richard Carapaz.

Tobias Haaland Johannessen leads Uno-X alongside the impressive Anton Charmig.

We've mentioned Widar but Lennert Van Eetvelt is perhaps Lotto-Intermarché's more tried-and-tested top-10 contender.

In Mathys Rondel, Marc Hirschi, and Michael Storer, Tudor Pro Cycling have a decent set of potential top-10s.