Who will win the Giro d'Italia 2025? Analysing the favourites

When the Giro d'Italia starts in Albania on Friday, there won't be one standout favourite as there was in 2024 with Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), as the Slovenian is skipping the Italian Grand Tour. Instead, the favourites list is topped by two riders at opposite ends of their careers, with a whole host of other contenders between them.

All the riders have been in Albania all week, some talking up their chances, and others talking them down, as the mind games and tactics begin before a pedal stroke has even been taken.

Though many riders and commentators have called this Giro a very open one when it comes to the GC, two top favourites have emerged in the run-up to the Grande Partenza. One is Pogačar's Slovenian compatriot and 2023 Giro champion Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), 35, while the other is his teammate from the Emirati squad, their rising Spanish superstar Juan Ayuso, 22. 

They're ranked very equally on form, but Roglič will likely enter as the main favourite as the much more experienced rider and as a modern general classification racing great. Being a four-time Vuelta a España winner, Giro champion and eight-time GT podium finisher speaks for itself.

But Ayuso isn't far behind in level, so the early-season racing would suggest, and being the younger man by 13 years can't hurt as Roglič nears his 40s. He's twice finished in the top four of the Vuelta and has proved to be one of the very best one-week racers in the peloton since joining the WorldTour in 2022.

Whether he can translate that into an elite three-week performance and defeat Roglič in the race for the maglia rosa is yet to be seen, but this is the best he's looked yet, and he should command leadership for UAE Team Emirates-XRG throughout the Giro as the key contender.

Though Roglič and Ayuso may be topping the list, there's a wide open field of contenders currently in Albania. Whether its Ineos' pairing of 2019 Tour de France winner Egan Bernal and Thymen Arensman, dark horse Michael Storer (Tudor), home favourite Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) or even Ayuso's own teammate Adam Yates, there are plenty of riders ready to pounce.

Roglič may be playing down his chances, calling himself old and saying he hasn't reconned a single stage, Ayuso is bullishly confident, saying anything other than a podium finish would be a disappointment, so it's going to take a lot from anyone else to topple the two riders who have dominated they key pre-Giro stage races.

Nonetheless, in the first Grand Tour of 2025, there should be fireworks and a fierce battle right the way through to Rome, with an Albanian Grande Partenza, the Strade Bianche of Tuscany, and brutal climbs such as the Colle delle Finestre and San Valentino di Brentonico all on the 2025 Giro route set to decide the race.

With that in mind, here's Cyclingnews' latest assessment of the favourites for the 108th Giro d'Italia and the race for the iconic Trofeo Senza Fine starting on May 9 and coming to a close on June 1.

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

First is, of course, Primož Roglič, as the narrow favourite to claim a second pink jersey and as a seasoned Grand Tour expert, who's made a career of succeeding in cycling's toughest three-week tests.

The Slovenian has cut a calm figure ahead of the Giro, joking with Jan Tratnik that "It's possible" to win the race, and saying "I'm ready, I've done my thing".

Roglič is riding the Giro-Tour de France double in 2025 as he takes a new approach into the summer, with victory in both set as his target. He won the Giro recently in 2023 and will be hunting a sixth Grand Tour title when he takes the start in Durrës.

At 35, Roglič is closing in on the twilight of his career, but, having made the late switch over to cycling from ski jumping, the Slovenian and his team still believe he is improving in only his 10th season as a professional.

His 2025 season saw the typical hairy-legged, slow start that Roglič has been accustomed to producing at the Volta ao Algarve, where he was off the pace and finished eighth overall. However, during his second race at the Volta a Catalunya, we got to see the real Roglič once again.

He excelled throughout the week of racing in northern Spain, winning the overall title and two stages. Roglič was in fine form, particularly on the final Barcelona stage, which he won solo, building up an eventual winning margin of 28 seconds from Juan Ayuso in second.

Ayuso is expected to be the main rival for Roglič, but if their duel in Spain was anything to go off of, then the Slovenian's race-sense could prove to be the difference. However, a lot more can go wrong in the chaos and pressure of a Grand Tour, which has come to be the Achilles Heel of Roglič, throughout his Tour de France history anyway, so he'll have to avoid crashes to ensure the Giro doesn't end in heartbreak.

After Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's Classics season didn't go to plan, they'll be desperate to perform at the Grand Tours once again, with 2022 Giro winner Jai Hindley and last year's Giro runner-up Dani Martínez both set to start in support of Roglič's bid. If he is to win it, he'll move ahead of Italian greats Binda, Bartali and Gimondi as the eighth most successful Grand Tour rider of all time.

Juan Ayuso (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

UAE Team Emirates-XRG will be without their talisman Tadej Pogačar for the first Grand Tour of 2025, after his domination in Italy last year, but, in testament to their incredible team depth, they still start with the second favourite – Juan Ayuso.

The young Spanish rider has long talked about his desire to be one of the best riders in the world, and his results so far this season have only warranted more that he deserves to be considered in that conversation. 

At only 22, Ayuso has racked up GC wins and top results at some of the most prestigious one-week races on the WorldTour calendar. He won Tirreno-Adriatico in March and Itzulia Basque Country last season, also finishing second at the Volta a Catalunya and Tour de Suisse since joining UAE.

Ayuso may be different from Pogačar, but he's got all the same traits required to be a real GC star, and a possible contender for his teammate in years to come, with great climbing ability, the time trial skill to back it up, and a more than good-enough sprint.

He'll be one of the few able to contend with Roglič for bonus seconds throughout the three weeks and should be well matched for the key mountain days and two flat races against the clock, making him the most likely to prevent a second Giro title for the Slovenian.

With his best GC results of third and fourth at the Vuelta so far in his career, Ayuso will be looking to win his first Grand Tour at only his fourth GT appearance, and he's made no bones about what he wants to achieve. "Anything but a top three finish would be disappointing" was his statement in the final days before the race. 

Ayuso won the U23 Giro d'Italia in 2021 and will be hoping a senior title follows it on debut, and he'll have quite the squad to back him up. Provisionally down to start as Ayuso's mountain support are Adam Yates, who is likely a co-leader, Isaac Del Toro, Rafał Majka, Jay Vine and Brandon McNulty. That's the type of team that could defeat Roglič, but Ayuso will have to be at career-best form if he's to do what he was unable to in Catalunya.

Thymen Arensman & Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)

Next on the list is a double act in the form of Ineos Grenadiers' Egan Bernal and Thymen Arensman, with the Colombian one of five former Giro d'Italia winners starting on May 9 after his triumph four years ago.

Bernal has been fighting to rediscover his best form ever since his near-career-and-life-ending crash in early 2022, with minor setbacks in the last couple of years seeing him struggle to come back to his pre-crash best.

The Colombian champion also won the Tour de France in 2019 and should still be considered a big contender, with the form to win a Grand Tour possibly still in him. He's said himself this week that he's still believing in his chances to win a third Grand Tour.

His flying start to the 2025 season was derailed by suffering a broken collarbone at the Clásica Jaén; however, Bernal returned to racing in Catalunya and finished a more than respectable seventh just behind teammate Laurens De Plus.

If he isn't firing at his best in pursuit of a second pink jersey, then Ineos also have an in-form Thymen Arensman as a good second option, who looked in great shape at the Tour of the Alps, losing out only to Storer.

The Dutchman won his first race for nearly three years and his first for the British team, before dropping to second overall on the final day. 

Arensman also has the benefit of great time trialling ability on his side, especially in comparison to the rest of the field aside from Roglič and Ayuso, having finished in the top 10 of six Giro d'Italia ITTs so far in his career.

It's his fourth participation at the Giro and he'll be looking to better the two sixth places overall he managed in 2024 and 2023, both times riding in support of Geraint Thomas.

With Ineos' seemingly complete overhaul of tactics in favour of racing aggressively, too, that could prove to be the difference when it comes to chasing a top Grand Tour result.

Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

It would be difficult not to include Adam Yates from a list of GC favourites for the Giro d'Italia, given how much he's raised his stock since joining UAE Team Emirates-XRG in 2023, where his time as a super domestique for Pogačar has brought him a career-best podium at the Tour de France.

Yates proved to be the third-best climber in the Tour two years ago, behind only Pogačar and Vingegaard, and showed a level that few could match. In 2024, he backed that up but was pushed one down the pecking order behind João Almeida, who finished fourth overall, as Yates still impressed for sixth. 

But at the Giro d'Italia in 2025, Yates should enter as one of two leaders for UAE, alongside  Ayuso, with the Brit's experience in Grand Tours possibly set to give him the edge over the Spanish rider.

Yates has raced at 14 Grand Tours in his career, and finished in the top 10 in half of them. But he's only raced the Giro d'Italia once, in 2017, so it will be only his second attempt at tackling the unpredictable weather and chaotic racing that comes with the Italian three-weeker.

Yates' results in 2025 would suggest that he's been well away from his best, with overall victory in Oman being followed by 32nd overall in Catalunya and 16th overall at Tirreno-Adriatico; however, on both occasions, Yates was riding in support of the aforementioned Ayuso.

That fact, too, would suggest a clear hierarchy at UAE going into the Giro, but whether it's Yates or indeed Ayuso emerges as the main leader is something that will surely have to be decided on the road, when it becomes evident who is best capable of facing up to Roglič.

Yates was at altitude training for three weeks in April, his first time at high ground this season, so he could be at a level so far unseen in 2025, when the Giro kicks off, and perhaps that confidence as leader could see him thrive and net his first-ever Grand Tour title.

Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling)

The rider who did the most for their Giro d'Italia pre-race ranking last week is certainly Michael Storer (Tudor), whose dominant performance at the Tour of the Alps has seen him look like a real threat to those more established, mentioned above.

Storer rode like a man possessed throughout the five days of action in Italy and Austria's South Tyrol region, winning one stage and the overall title after a dramatic final two days. 

He lost the overall lead on stage 4 to Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers), having gone into the penultimate day with a relatively comfortable 41-second lead over second place overall. However, fought back tremendously on the final day to drop Arensman after a perfect Tudor lead-out and ride solo to the overall title with a winning margin of 1:33.

It was a display that caught the attention of fans and commentators, who are now questioning whether Storer can produce similarly in front of the likes of Roglič and Ayuso. 

That will be the biggest question mark for the 28-year-old Australian, alongside the two time trials, where he's struggled so far in his GC career. Not to mention how Alps winners have struggled to podium in the Giro for many of the past seasons.

His climbing form, though, looks to be close to his career-best, with a stage win and fifth overall at Paris-Nice in March preceding his stunning performance in the Alps. He's tasted Grand Tour success in the past too, having won two Vuelta a España stages in 2021, and continued to improve his GC results to a best of 10th at last year's Giro.

The Australian is welcoming the new attention, and has admitted that his numbers are better, but he's staying realistic about his chances, saying: "Hopefully, I can also deliver on that, but if I don't, I'm used to getting beaten, so it's not a big problem for me."

He'll be on one of the "smaller" teams with Tudor, who are racing their second Giro d'Italia in a row; however, their ProTeam squad more than punches above its weight, so expect Storer and the red and black Tudor jerseys to be well among the fight throughout the corsa rosa.

Mikel Landa (Soudal-QuickStep)

Mikel Landa will head to his eighth Giro d'Italia in 2025, 10 years after he finished third behind Alberto Contador and teammate Fabio Aru while riding for Astana. He's with Soudal-QuickStep now, but will look to repeat the feat or go a couple spots further. 

Landa was brought onto the Belgian squad primarily as climbing support for Remco Evenepoel, who he helped to third on debut at the Tour de France last season, while simultaneously taking fifth in a stacked GC field.

At 35 and heading into a 23rd three-week race, Landa is one of the most experienced Grand Tour riders in the current peloton and knows just how to put together a performance that can land a top result.

He's gone without a victory at one, despite his consistency and finishing 9 of his last 13 GTs in the top 10, missing out to, or riding in support of, the likes of Chris Froome and Contador in his early career and now being outdone by Roglič and Pogačar in his later racing years.

Nonetheless, Landa is still one of the top GC riders in the world, shown best by his fifth at the Tour and eighth at the Vuelta last year. He's also continued to perform during his second year on QuickStep, netting fourth at Catalunya behind Roglič, Ayuso and Enric Mas, and seventh at Tirreno-Adriatico.

As has always been the case, Landa's time trial ability should hamper him in the fight for the maglia rosa, especially with Roglič and Ayuso's ability to race against the clock, however, he'll be well matched with those also fighting for the podium, so will still have his chance to shine in the mountains.

Also, without Evenepoel, Landa has the freedom to go for his own ambition this time out, before again supporting the Belgian in July. With that in mind, it's unknown if Landa will be at his absolute peak in Italy, but he should still be considered.

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)

Another former winner, Richard Carapaz, will also be starting the 108th Giro d'Italia this May, with the EF Education-EasyPost rider looking to win his second Grand Tour at his fourth Giro. 

It's been a long time since he triumphed in the 2019 race as a 26-year-old, however, the Ecuadorian has lost none of his flair in that time and proved to still be one of the top GC riders in the world, most recently with fourth at last season's Vuelta.

That came off the back of winning the Tour de France King of the Mountains jersey and a stunning breakaway stage to Superdévoluy, having raced for stages throughout the three-week French race.

But, in 2025, Carapaz is back for more at the race which made him and looking once more for the podium. He's got a great record racing in Italy, with fourth place on debut at the 2018 Giro being followed up by his historic victory the year after, and second place in 2022 behind only Hindley.

It's the first time racing the Giro for his new team EF Education-EasyPost, and the likes of 2024 Giro stage winner Georg Steinhauser and former world champion Rui Costa are among those provisionally down to support the former Olympic champion's bid. 

Despite a lack of promising results this season so far, his team have been bullish about the Ecuadorian's chances, saying: "He's in the best shape since he joined the team".

We haven't seen the best of Carapaz yet in 2025, but he's one of the very best riders at peaking for the Grand Tours, and tends to only get better as the three weeks rage on, so expect to see the Locomotive in full flight by the end of the Giro.

Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)

Italy's Giulio Ciccone has been kept out of his home Grand Tour for the past two seasons, with COVID-19 and saddle sore surgery forcing him to change his plans. He'll return to home roads at the Giro d'Italia in 2025, in great form and as the GC leader for Lidl-Trek.

May 9 will bring his eighth career start at the Giro, and after making a solid start to the year, he looks on track to finally achieve a maiden Grand Tour top 10. He'll be buoyed by his best overall result of 11th in a three-week race arriving at last summer's Tour de France.

Ciccone's results so far have been up and down during his seventh season at Lidl-Trek, with a great second place at the UAE Tour behind only Pogačar being followed up with 13th at Tirreno-Adriatico.

Most recently, he's finished fourth at the Tour of the Alps and second at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, so his form appears to be rising with the start of the Giro just around the corner.

He has a strong team around him, with Classics superstar Mads Pedersen to start as a domestique de luxe and sprint option, and the likes of Carlos Verona and Patrick Konrad for the harder days.

There isn't much pure climbing support on the provisional for Ciccone, however, he'll likely be trying to follow the moves of Roglič and Ayuso, where he can compete against them in the sprints for bonus seconds. This is where he'll match up best with the two favourites, with the time trials a possible weakness, though he's revealed he's spent a lot of time working on the discipline over the last year. 

Though he'll be hoping for a top result, the Italian's mood pre-race has been cautious but focused as he attempts a serious GC bid. 

Pello Bilbao & Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)

Just like Ineos Grenadiers, Bahrain Victorious will sport a two-pronged attack for the GC in Italy and Albania, with two-time fifth-place Giro finisher Pello Bilbao and last season's fifth-placed rider Antonio Tiberi both taking the start. 

Tiberi excelled in his Giro debut, also taking home the best young rider's white jersey. He continued this form into the start of the season, finishing third overall at Tirreno-Adriatico. 

Though he was forced out of his final pre-Giro race, the Tour of the Alps, due to stomach illness. The young Italian has had the time to recover, but could have missed some vital racing and build-up of race rhythm, though he says his ambitions are the same.

Alongside Ciccone, Tiberi will be a key hope for Italian fans, who are hoping to soon end the longest drought of Italian GC winners in Giro history. 

Should he not be up to the task, however, then Bilbao is more than capable of leading Bahrain's ambitions, if he's not already be ahead of Tiberi as the race develops. He'll be racing his seventh Giro this time out and has finished in the top six in half of his appearances.

Bilbao made a strong start to the season, with third at both the Volta Valenciana and UAE Tour and fifth at Strade Bianche; however, his recent results at Itzulia Basque Country and the Ardennes aren't as impressive.

Tiberi should be stronger in the time trials, which could keep him in better stead to compete with Roglič and Ayuso, but with two options, Bahrain Victorious look set to start in a great position to fight for the podium.

Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech)

The Giro d'Italia is where Derek Gee properly burst onto the scene in the WorldTour, with the 2023 edition witnessing him take four second places and two fourth places as he fought tirelessly to win a stage from the breakaway.

He came agonisingly close, but didn't manage to fully complete his breakthrough with a maiden Grand Tour stage win; however, two years on and he's set to start his second Giro as a contender for the overall race and a possible podium finisher.

It will only be his third Grand Tour, and it was his last appearance at a three-week test – last season's Tour de France – that confirmed what he could do across 21 stages of the most brutal racing.

Gee finished ninth overall on GC at his first attempt in the Tour, having signalled to the peloton that such a result was coming a month earlier at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Not only did he win a stage at the prestigious one-week event, his first victory at WorldTour level, but the Canadian also finished third overall behind only Roglič and Matteo Jorgenson.

It looked like his chances at producing a similar pre-Giro performance were disappearing when he struggled on the opening two stages of the Tour of the Alps, but Gee fought back to finish third overall with a vital second place behind Arensman on a tough penultimate stage.

With that in mind, Gee has been remarkably consistent throughout 2025, as he's continued to try his hand at GC racing. He also managed fourth at Tirreno-Adriatico and won O Gran Camiño, thanks mainly to a time trial stage win. 

He'll be one of the better riders in this list against the clock, and if he can find his best climbing legs, he could be right in the fight for the podium.

Honourable Mentions

Simon Yates could easily have made the main list at his first Grand Tour for new team Visma-Lease a Bike, however, he hasn't yet shown his best in 2025 with ninth overall at Catalunya and 15th at Tirreno-Adriatico. 

The Brit will return to the Giro for the sixth time, seven years after losing it on the final three stages on debut, with the hopes of bettering his top result of third from 2021. He's expected to ride the Tour in support of Vingegaard come July, so this might not be the best Yates possible, but with Wout van Aert helping him, he could still be one of the top contenders.

David Gaudu could well move up the favourites ranking should he put it a solid performance at the Tour de Romandie against Remco Evenepoel, however, his results so far in 2025 do not warrant more than an honourable mention spot.

He's been one of the best GC riders in recent years, most recently finishing sixth at last year's Vuelta, however, will be on debut at the Giro d'Italia this year. He's another rider who will struggle in the time trials, but if he can find his best climbing form, then he could be a podium contender. 

Romain Bardet will ride his final Grand Tour at the Giro d'Italia in May for Picnic PostNL, before retiring after the Crtiérium du Dauphiné a month later. A fairytale ending for one of the 2010s top GC contenders would, of course, be nice, but there are no gifts in this sport.

The French veteran could yet surprise and put in a more than solid performance, having finished ninth at last year's Giro and been very active at the Tour of the Alps, however, it would be a surprise to see him up there competing with Roglič and Ayuso.

If he's not going for his own ambitions, we should also see him take on a mentorship role for young, promising teammate Max Poole.

Tom Pidcock's first season on new team Q36.5 can't really be seen as anything but a great success, with his first professional stage race overall win arriving at the AlUla Tour, and his pro win tally almost doubling.

The main question mark for Pidcock is whether he'll actually ride for the general classification or not, having failed at his first four Grand Tours to crack the top 10 overall. His coach is dreaming of a solid GC ride, but the rider himself has said he's not interested in that, but he remains ambitious for stage wins. 

On Q36.5's GT debut, the Brit could be better suited to chasing stages, so a bid for the GC could end before it's even started. Should he try and chase a spot in the top 10, then his 2025 form – sixth at Tirreno, third in Andalucia and first in AlUla – suggests that his stage racing shape is solid.

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