After three days in Albania and then three sprint stages in Italy, stage 7 of this year's Giro d'Italia will see the race really ramp into action with the hardest stage yet and a parcours guaranteed to shake up the general classification.
Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) currently wears the pink jersey after six days of racing and three wins for the Dane but, with 3,390m of climbing and a steep uphill finish on the cards on Friday, he will almost certainly pass his lead onto a new rider come the end of stage 7.
But who will that be? Nothing is a given but all eyes are going to be on second-overall and pre-race favourite, Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe).
The 168km stage starts in Castel di Sangro and the peloton will be climbing straight out of the neutral zone with the 7.8km Roccaraso climb starting as soon as the flag drops. From there, the first 50km is either a plateau or downhill but then the stage ramps up and doesn't let up.
The short but steep Monte Urano (4.6km at 9.2% average) kicks things off, followed by the 21.5km Vado della Forcella, before a descent and then the final category-1 climb to Marsia from Tagliacozzo. The ascent is 11.9km in length and starts fairly gently – around 4.5% for the first 9km – but the last 2km really ramps up with an average gradient of 9.1% and some steeper sections.
There's also a bonus sprint right at the bottom of the climb, so it will be a fight to even get to the base of the hill.
Like every stage of a Grand Tour, a breakaway will likely go in the first part of the day, and the opening climb should help that effort but, with the first uphill finish of the race up for grabs, we're expecting to see the GC riders battle it out for both the stage win and the pink jersey. Where the break could come into play is with satellite riders so don't be surprised to see the GC teams trying to put riders up the road.
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Though some riders have already lost chunks of time in the opening days of this Giro – Thymen Arensman (Ineos Grenadiers), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) – most of the pre-race GC contenders are still within a minute of second-placed Primož Roglič, presuming Pedersen will be out of the overall conversation soon.
However, even if other riders aren't far off right now, and the GC is very much still alive, Roglič is certainly in the best position to take pink on Friday, even if he doesn't win the stage.
The UAE Team Emirates-XRG trio of Brandon McNulty, Isaac Del Toro and Juan Ayuso are 14, 15 and 18 seconds adrift of Roglič respectively, so one of them would have to not only beat him uphill but also by a margin to take pink. The same is true for the likes of Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling), Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) and all the other GC riders in the top 20, only their deficit to the Slovenian is even bigger.
With the well-placed bonus sprint, the challenging finish, and Roglič's penchant for an uphill sprint, it's hard to see a scenario in which the Red Bull rider yields enough time to not be the one to take pink from Pedersen. Ayuso has proven he can match and sometimes beat Roglič on finishes like this, so these two are likely favourites for the stage, but Roglič can take the lead even if he's beaten on the line.
The only question is whether Roglič wants to reclaim the pink jersey so early. He didn't exactly give it away on stage 3 after he'd taken the lead after the time trial but equally there are a lot of pressures that come with leading a Grand Tour so early, particularly with the loss of Jai Hindley on stage 6.
That might be a reason to slightly begrudge taking the race lead but in practice, Roglič isn't going to give up a win or a good ride just to avoid pink and all signs point to him reclaiming the top spot on Friday afternoon.
Profile
(Image credit: RCS Sport)
Climbs
Profile for the Monte Urano (Image credit: RCS Sport/Giro d'Italia)
Roccaraso (cat. 3), km. 7.4
Monte Urano (cat. 2), km. 70 (4.5km, 9.4% avg 14% max)
Vado della Forcella (cat. 2), km. 105.7 (21.6km, 3.6% avg 9% max)
Tagliacozzo (cat. 1), km. 168 (12.6km, 5.4% avg 14% max)
Laura Weislo is a Cyclingnews veteran of 20 years. Having joined in 2006, Laura extensively covered the Operacion Puerto doping scandal, the years-long conflict between the UCI and the Tour de France organisers ASO over the creation of the WorldTour, and the downfall of Lance Armstrong and his lifetime ban for doping. As Managing Editor, Laura coordinates coverage for North American events and global news.
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