One of the biggest appeals of one-day Classics, compared to stage racing, are their unpredictability. But as for who will emerge the strongest on Saturday's 253km trek from the fogbound plains of Bergamo to the hills of Como, Il Lombardia always seems to be enshrouded in a extra level of uncertainty.
The reason is simple: Il Lombardia's date in the cycling calendar. A large percentage of riders will spend months building their form for Paris-Roubaix or the Tour of Flanders.
But by this point in the season, holidays are looming for the majority of the peloton, retirement is but one race away for others, and for an unfortunate few, the search for a new contract for next year is still continuing. They almost all have one thing in common though: after eight months of hard racing, come the fifth Monument of the season, virtually everybody is running on fumes.
Thus the number of riders likely to tie a knot in their season with Il Lombardia's final double loop of the San Fermo della Battaglia and the Civiglio climbs, rather than head for the team bus the first time round is never high, and the previous total number of finishers bear that out. Of 175 starters in last year’s Il Lombardia, just 107 completed. In 2020, 86. In 2019, 109. 2022 will likely prove no different.
On the other end of the scale, a few household cycling names are clearly ending their year in great condition and, either before they pull down the curtain on their season or in fact on their entire career, still have points to prove and races to win. And Il Lombardia is the one WorldTour opportunity left in 2022, or perhaps the one opportunity left at all, where they can do that.
But it's worth remembering, too, that a good final performance or victory in a season often plants the seeds of a strong start next year too. Riders often talk about how it provides an extra layer of motivation for winter training or a psychological boost to hit the ground running next spring. In that sense, at Il Lombardia, as the leaves of northern Italy fall down around the last Monument of the season, things are only just beginning.
Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)
There are multiple reasons why Pogačar is the key reference point in this year’s Il Lombardia. In the short-term his win earlier this week in the very hilly Tre Valli Varesine and second place in the Giro dell’Emilia, the two warm-up races par excellence for Il Lombardia, indicate excellent form. Long-term, his stunning victory from distance in his Il Lombardia debut last year indicates that the 253 kilometres of relentless climbing he will face on Saturday will almost certainly not deter Pogačar in any way, shape or form.
Arguably the biggest draw of all, though, for fans is that Il Lombardia marks the first time that Pogačar will cross paths with his Tour de France nemesis Jonas Vingegaard since his defeat this July. As the latest link in a short but very dramatic chain of rivalry between the two, therefore, Il Lombardia is the first time they go head to head as top contenders in a Monument.
Historically, Pogačar has the much more spectacular track record in these events. His team, too, in Il Lombardia, containing many of his top GC support riders and/or team heavyweights like João Almeida, Marc Hirschi, Diego Ulissi and Rafał Majka, is arguably the most powerful of all the lineups.
On the downside, while a defeat in the Giro dell’Emilia by a rider with scant one-day credentials like Movistar's Enric Mas does not suggest Pogačar is in his most devastating form, he said after the race he is in much better shape than in 2021 at this point in the season. Either way, Il Lombardia will tell us all a lot more.
Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma)
When Jonas Vingegaard came back to racing last week after a lengthy spell of downtime following his Tour de France win, it was hard to know what to expect. But two stage wins in the CRO Race and only losing the overall lead by the barest minimum on the last day strongly suggest that the Dane is hungry to keep on taking the victories, and in the right place physically to do it.
At Il Lombardia, how Vingegaard matches up to Pogačar will be one of the key plotlines of the day. That's even if on paper with a single one day race win to his name, in the Drôme Classic this spring, Vingegaard’s track record in the speciality is far less remarkable than the Slovenian’s string of triumphs in Monuments and elsewhere.
But Il Lombardia is certainly a race which favours Vingegaard's skill set, and last year, in his second participation in the Italian end-of-season Classic, he finished in a more than respectable 14th. Perhaps equally importantly his win at the similarly hilly La Drôme Classic was taken in fine style ahead of much more experienced and successful one-day racers like Julian Alaphilippe.
And VIngegaard is certainly not scared of challenging the established order, either – as Pogačar found to his cost this summer.
Domenico Pozzovivo (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert)
Vincenzo Nibali won’t be the only Italian veteran looking for a top result in Como this Saturday. At 39, Pozzovivo is just as experienced as Nibali in Il Lombardia. Like the former double winner, Pozzovivo has taken part in the race 14 times, more than any other starters – and his three top-10 finishes in Il Lombardia to date strongly suggest he wasn’t there to make up the numbers, either.
What’s more, fifth in the Coppa Agostoni, third in the Giro dell'Emilia and eighth in the Tre Valli Varesine are all the kinds of markers that show Pozzovivo means business this autumn.
His Intermarché team is certainly not one of the strongest this Saturday. But after Pozzovivo crawled out from underneath the wreckage of the defunct Qhubeka-NextHash team to secure a last-minute contract in February, a fine result in Il Lombardia would the ideal way to round off a season that had such a difficult start.
That's particularly true given Pozzovivo is still reportedly looking for a contract for 2023
Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
If it seems like the rumours that ultra-veteran Alejandro Valverde will continue for another season are going to swirl around El Bala at least until this Saturday, his last race as a professional, in one sense the Spanish star has only himself to blame.
Even with the finish line of one of the longest careers of modern day cycling finally in sight, at 42 Valverde is continuing to produce some excellent results. Second after miscalculating his sprint in the Coppa Agostoni, fourth in the Giro dell'Emilia after propelling Movistar teammate Enric Mas into pole position for victory, and third in Tre Valli Varesine speak for themselves. On top of which Il Lombardia is a Classic where Valverde has had a sparkling run of near misses as well.
Three second places, not to mention fifth last year, would already lend credence to Valverde's describing himself as a favourite earlier this week. So too, would be his ability to produce a high turn of speed in a final dash for the line from a small group of finishers, as was already on display in Agostoni. On top of that, he warned after Tre Valli Varesine that, "I like the Il Lombardia route more than other years."
Perhaps most importantly of all, though, as retirement beckons, when it comes to making an all-or-nothing bid for victory, Valverde – a four-times winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the most similar of all the other Monuments, let’s not forget – truly will have nothing to lose. Or prove.
Julian Alaphilippe (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl)
Following his unsuccessful defence of his second road world title in Australia, a quick glance at the recent results sheet for Julian Alaphilippe – 81st in Giro dell'Emilia and 69th in Monday's Coppa Bernocchi – would seem to suggest that come this Saturday the 30-year-old Frenchman is in for a hiding.
However, Alaphilippe's performance in Bernocchi was actually far more impressive than it seems, with a serious of aggressive attacks in the final hour clearing the way for his QuickStep-AlphaVinyl teammate Davide Ballerini to go on to victory.
It was an impressive ride in anyone's books, but particularly given Alaphilippe has been fighting to get on terms all year thanks to battles against crashes, severe injuries and COVID-19. So Bernocchi may not have been a great result per se, but his performance perhaps represented the kind of breakthrough Alaphilippe needed to see to go on to greater things.
As Cyclingnews colleague Barry Ryan wrote in his race report of Bernocchi, Alaphilippe will now, "look to Saturday's Il Lombardia as a chance to put a different slant on an ill-starred season, and his sparkling display here suggested that he would at least be a factor in the race."
“Julian is Julian,” said QuickStep-AlphaVinyl directeur sportif Davide Bramati. “Everybody knows today was a good test. Julian was pulling very hard for Ballero in the finale. We are very happy and now we will see in the next races.”
Vincenzo Nibali (Astana Qazaqstan)
What can we expect of Vincenzo Nibali in his last ever race on Saturday? In a sense, (and this is equally true of Alejandro Valverde) it doesn’t matter. Il Lombardia will see one last flick of his racing fins from The Shark of Messina before lo Squalo swims off to retirement and as such, come what may this weekend, Nibali’s exit marks the end of a big chapter in modern-day cycling.
And yet, just like Valverde, it does not seem that Nibali will be leaving the room quietly, either. Eighth in Coppa Agostoni, where he was part of the leading break, and 13th in Tre Valli Varesine are both results worthy of any favourite for Il Lombardia. And history and geography are both on Nibali's side in Il Lombardia too: both of his previous wins in the Italian Monument, in 2017 and 2015, were taken solo on the same finish in Como and preceded by the same combination of late climbs, too – the Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia.
Nobody should rule Nibali out, then, particularly in a scenario where the top favourites like Pogačar and Vingegaard may be marking each other very closely. Given Nibali’s ability to sniff out exactly the right moment to make an attack in such tense race circumstances, the odds on a final victory for the 37-year-old on home soil could lessen considerably.
And certainly with retirement just one race away, there can be no doubting on Saturday morning in Bergamo, the Shark's motivation to bite a chunk out of his rivals one last time will surely be higher than ever.
Enric Mas (Movistar)
Up until last Saturday, the idea of making Enric Mas a contender for a one-day race would have seemed all but risible. After all, the man from Mallorca had never won a Classic in his seven years as a pro.
But all that changed after Mas, strongly supported by Valverde, managed to drop no less a rival than Pogačar as they neared the summit of the steep San Luca finish in the Giro dell'Emilia, claiming just the sixth victory (of any kind) of his career.
For Saturday in Il Lombardia, the success of the Movistar two-up game in Emilia raises the possibility of Mas and Valverde working together again in the finale on a much bigger stage. There's more room for it to go wrong, of course, with Il Lombardia's stronger field and harder course. But both riders are clearly on top of their game, and Mas will likely be keen to boost his fledgling reputation as a one-day racer before the winter, if he can.
Adam Yates (Ineos Grenadiers)
Third last year in Il Lombardia, Yates has always been at home in the hillier Classics. And although he’s been quietly bubbling under the surface this autumn, seventh in the GP de Québec, fourth in the GP de Montréal and sixth in the Tre Valli Varesine suggest his usual consistency is back.
It remains to be seen if Il Lombardia's slightly easier route this year suits an out-and-out climber like Yates as much as the 2021 course did. But his explosive climbing style and seeming unerring ability to be there or thereabouts in the finale of most hilly Classics does makes it feel like a first Monument career victory for Yates is long overdue. In Il Lombardia, Yates might just set that record straight.
Rigoberto Urán (EF Education-EasyPost)
To slightly misquote the Forrest Gump about life being a box of chocolates and people never knowing what they are going to get out of it, you could perhaps say the same thing about Rigoberto Urán and bike racing.
After a largely anonymous 2022 Vuelta a España, for example, Urán popped onto the radar in the third week and took an impressive summit finish win to complete his Grand Tour set of stage victories. His previous win had been a time trial in the Tour de Suisse 2021, which is turn, was his first victory against the clock in six years. There have been some long waits, then for Urán to shine, but when he does so, his wins are taken with the kind of classy performance that at least partly makes up for it.
So if this year in the late autumn Italian Classics, the Colombian veteran, who has three podium finishes in Il Lombardia to his name, has been quietly racking up the placings without getting much in the limelight, it’s probably worth bearing in mind. Because if anybody can turn in a surprise win and make it seem like the most natural thing in the world, that’s Urán.
Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo)
Like Enric Mas, going for Il Lombardia this Saturday for Mollema might have seemed like a long shot a couple of weeks back, given Mollema’s relatively lowkey performance in the Road World Championships. But the Dutch star actually has three big points in his favour.
Firstly, ever since Mollema took a breakthrough win in a stage in the 2013 Vuelta a España with a last minute sneak attack in Burgos that kept the sprinters at bay, it's evident that Mollema thrives in scenarios which call for flying under the radar and then popping up to capture a major win at the last minute..
Secondly Mollema knows what it is to win in Il Lombardia with such an attack, as happened in 2019 when he grabbed the win ahead of Valverde, Primož Roglič, and Egan Bernal.
Thirdly, seventh place in Tre Valli Varesine hints strongly at rising form. The combination might just prove enough on Saturday.
