Who will actually ride the Giro d’Italia in 2027? Analysing the choices facing Pogačar, Vingegaard, Seixas, Evenepoel, Del Toro and more

With the routes for the 2027 editions of the Tour de France and Giro d'Italia now out of the bag, the world's top general classification riders have all the material with which to make their Grand Tour plans for the season ahead.

Though the Vuelta a España shouldn't be forgotten about, the big question, as ever, is Giro or Tour – or even both.

Over in Italy, we have a route that's billed as balanced but still favours the purer climbers with summit finishes here there and everywhere, and 57km of time trialling but 19 of those being uphill. In France, we have a somewhat shocking increase in time trialling – 71km and largely flat time – coupled with a notable reduction in marquee mountain stages.

But where does that leave the world's leading Grand Tour contenders in their decision-making processes for next year? And who will actually be swayed to target the Giro d'Italia over and above the Tour de France?

Here, we take a look at factors that will be swaying all the big names, and how likely they are to be booking a flight to Italy next May.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Giro Probability: Highly unlikely

The Giro d’Italia organisers have dangled a carrot in front of Tadej Pogačar’s nose with two stages on Slovenian soil, but it doesn’t seem to have worked – at least not fully. The 2024 Giro champion sounds like he’d love to return for a second appearance but other duties might take precedence: “Even though I'd rather ride the Giro, I'll have to tick off the Vuelta at some point too. I think that will be the goal for next year,” he said recently.

The Vuelta, of course, is a source of unfinished business, given he crashed out while in the lead this year, and given it remains the missing Grand Tour in his trophy cabinet. Pogačar has demonstrated a penchant for broadening his palmarès and ticking races off in recent years, and for someone who has won so much, the Vuelta represents something of a gaping hole at this point. And given the Tour de France is an immovable point on his program, the Spanish Grand Tour is set to be the preferred combination.

When it comes to the Giro, another stumbling block would appear to be another missing piece of the Pogačar palmarès puzzle: Paris-Roubaix. The Slovenian has become one of the most prolific Classics riders of all time and the Hell of the North is now the only missing trophy in his Monument cabinet. Having finished runner-up two years in a row, an extraordinary and historic victory is clearly within his grasp, and this seems to have become a major fixation. The cobbled Classics in early April are less than a month out from the Giro and require completely different training loads and even physiologies – Pogačar himself opened up about the weight he gained for this year’s Spring campaign and hitting that flat-land Classics shape isn’t compatible with gearing the body for a mountainous three-week race.

Pogačar will surely return to the Giro in the future but it would be a huge surprise to see him there next year.

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Giro Probability: Likely

If Pogačar does indeed stick with his 2026 schedule, then that opens the door for Isaac del Toro to target the Giro d’Italia in a bid to win a first Grand Tour. The Mexican arguably should have won the 2025 Giro but let victory escape him in a hugely dramatic denouement, and he decided against trying to right those wrongs this year in favour of joining Pogačar at the Tour, where he joined him on the podium.

That ride this summer – along with the rest of an outstanding season – confirmed Del Toro as one of the very best riders in the world and a Grand Tour winner in waiting. Having gained that experience – and particularly having learned directly from Pogačar at the Tour – it would seem Del Toro is ready to step up into a true leadership role, and the Giro represents the perfect place for that to happen.

Going back to the Tour, meanwhile, would likely yield the very same result, so in terms of his development the Giro feels like a logical next step in 2027.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Giro Probability: Unlikely

Only a few weeks ago, when the new Giro boss Luca Guercilena was talking about re-balancing routes and re-embracing time trials, it seemed like Remco Evenepoel would have a huge decision to make following his brilliant runner-up finish at this year’s Tour. Return to France, and knock against the impenetrable Pogačar-shaped door once again? Or head to Italy on a more favourable route with less competition?

But the route reveals have done away with those preconceptions. Given Evenepoel’s incredible time trialling superiority and his vulnerability to an off-day in the mountains – even if his 2026 Tour was impressively consistent – the Tour is surely the route that suits him the best next year.

He would dearly love to win the Giro – the first Grand Tour he took aim at in his career and which he arguably might have won in 2023 were it not for COVID-19 – but he won’t want to miss the Tour after what he did there this year, and now the route doesn’t really give him a convincing counter-argument.

The Tour also seems to sit better with Evenepoel’s season as a whole, allowing him to return to the Tour of Flanders after his impressive debut this year, and target a third Liège-Bastogne-Liège title later in the Spring, before building quietly towards the Tour like last year. There has been speculation over a Giro-Tour double but all the noise from the Evenepoel camp is that he’ll do even less racing – and even more tailored training blocks – in 2027, so this doesn’t seem realistic in the slightest.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Giro Probability: Unlikely

Having won the Giro at a canter this year, and with it now ticked off on his palmarès amid the complete set of all three Grand Tours, the question is what Vingegaard has to gain by going to the Giro. Sportingly, not an enormous amount – another Giro title would still be an amazing achievement and one that would underline his greatness as a five-time Grand Tour winner. However, after a third straight Pogačar victory and with that once-dramatic rivalry now looking extremely one-sided, the Tour de France is surely more urgent a priority than ever.

The interesting point is that the Tour was still, on paper, the priority in 2026. Vingegaard spent the best part of the spring and summer talking about how he is stronger in the second Grand Tour of a season, making the Giro appear to be little more than a preparation race. We never got to see the theory truly play out, as Vingegaard – already far behind but still insisting he was growing into the race – crashed out of the Tour on stage 15.

If he and Visma-Lease a Bike truly believe his best Tour de France form can be reached with the Giro in the legs, then another double could well be on the cards, which would be great for the sport. But with the Giro ticked off the palmarès, the suspicion is that they will focus squarely on the Tour de France and opt for a more tailored approach – after all, as easily as Vingegaard won the Giro, it still comes with a lot of mental stress plus the exposure to 21 days where – as he and Pogačar know only too well from last year – best laid plans can be wiped out in a moment’s misfortune.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

Giro Probability: 50:50

After placing fourth at this year’s Tour de France, in the middle of some truly sensational exploits in the spring and autumn, Paul Seixas is the hottest property in cycling and his Grand Tour choices for 2027 will be eagerly anticipated and indeed scrutinised.

The routes for both races suit the Frenchman but he’s like Pogačar – a Swiss Army knife all-rounder and perhaps even better against the clock – so it’s hard to envisage a route that wouldn’t suit his characteristics.

Does he go back to the Tour and try to get a little closer to Pogačar? Or does he take on the Giro with a much clearer path to victory?

Still only 20, there’s no way he’ll ride both, not least because he has his heart set on the World Championships near his grandparents’ house, which take place earlier next year, just a month after the Tour. In fact, those Worlds might just sway it, coming in a tricky spot not soon enough after the Tour to cash in on the residual form that follows the initial recovery period, and not long enough away to truly wind down and build back up again. In that sense, if Seixas is as serious as he sounds about the Worlds, doing the Giro and skipping the Tour would actually make the most sense in terms of peaking for both (even if it might compromise any Spring Classics ambitions).

One important thing to note with Seixas is that he has not yet finalised contract negotiations for 2028 and beyond. After turning pro on an initial three-year deal, and with his value skyrocketing, this is a huge next contract for Seixas and one that will shape the sport for the next five years. Decathlon are working hard to keep him but rumours of big-money offers have been doing the rounds all year. What all this means for the Giro is that Seixas finds himself in the unusual position of being the one who can call the shots. A French team with the star French rider usually means the Tour de France – it took years for Romain Bardet to be allowed to do the Giro in this same team – but Decathlon are so desperate to tempt him to stay that, when it comes to his race program in 2027, it’s essentially his own call.

Other big names

• Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe have arguably the deepest Grand Tour arsenal in the world, and if Evenepoel does decide against the Giro then it will be interesting what the German team do with their marquee home talent, Florian Lipowitz. With less time trialling, the Giro seems better suited to the 2025 Tour podium finisher, and there were some awkward moments of cohabitation with Evenepoel at last year’s Tour. Giulio Pellizzari had a disappointing Giro this year but could return as a home hope, while former winner Jai Hindley might be tempted to do what he did this year – shoot for the podium at the Giro then work for Evenepoel at the Tour.
• Ineos Grenadiers will almost certainly send Oscar Onley to the Tour de France after he missed out on the chance this year, with Egan Bernal, Thymen Arensman and Carlos Rodríguez the others who'll need to fit around those plans. 
• Visma-Lease a Bike could well hand the Giro reigns to the rider who guided Vingegaard so impressively in the mountains this year: Davide Piganzoli. The 24-year-old Italian had a stand-out season and looks set to assume greater responsibility next year. 
• Lidl-Trek have decisions to make with Giro runner-up Felix Gall joining Juan Ayuso and Mattias Skjelmose at the team. Gall has been the best of them in the past couple of years but really struggles against the clock, unlike the other two, so it could be Giro for the Austrian again.
• Richard Carapaz was more of a stage hunter with EF but might renew his GC focus at NSN – given their lack of climbing options, perhaps we'll see him double up.

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