Pogacar clashes with Vingegaard as Nibali and Valverde bow out at Il Lombardia - Preview

Autumn has officially begun and the leaves are already falling in the hills between Bergamo and Lake Como but warm weather means this year’s Il Lombardia should be a sunny, aggressive and ever so spectacular final Monument.

The hilly Il Lombardia course, its history and its prestige bring together the best climbers and the best WorldTour riders for an a final showdown each October. Other races and a desperate chase for UCI points to avoid WorldTour relegation have stretched the 2022 season into next week’s Veneto races and even the Tour de Langkawi in Malaysia, but Il Lombardia traditionally brings down the curtain on big-time European road racing.

This year’s Il Lombardia will offer many things, including a Tour de France revenge match between last year’s winner Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) and this year’s Tour winner Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma). It will also mark a further generational change and the end of an era as Vincenzo Nibali (Astana Qazaqstan) and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) retire after long careers.

Remco Evenepoel opted to show off his new rainbow jersey and end his 2022 season at Binche-Chimay-Binche and so Julian Alaphilippe will fly the flag for QuickStep-AlphaVinyl in Italy. After passing the rainbow bands to his younger teammate, Alaphilippe will hope to end a crash and injury-strewn season on a high and perhaps with a show of pride that signals he is still top dog in the Belgian super team.  

Whoever the winner, there will be moments of celebration on the shores of Lake Como on Saturday but also tears of an emotional farewell to the 2022 season and long careers.  

Classic Il Lombardia route

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Il Lombardia has often covered different roads in the vast northern Lombardy region of Italy, visiting Varese, Como, Lecco, Bergamo and once starting and finishing in central Milan.

In more recent times Bergamo and Como have swapped the start and finish and this year the cycling-mad eastern city will wave off the riders for the 253km race in the lower Bergamo Basso part of the city. Como will host the finale, with two ascents of the short and twisting San Fermo della Battaglia climb either side of the longer and harder Civiglio.

Twelve months ago, Il Lombardia started in Como and finished in Bergamo. Tadej Pogačar attacked his rivals with 35km to go, with only Fausto Masnada able to join him on the descent thanks to his local knowledge of the numerous hairpins. Pogačar dominated the sprint to take his second monument of the 2021 season.

Pogačar seems near his best form but he and his UAE Team Emirates squad will have to work hard to control the race on the new route to Como. The climbs are shorter but more numerous.

After leaving Bergamo, the riders tackle the Forcellino di Bianzano after 29km, before the longer haul up the Ganda, which served as the springboard for Pogačar’s decisive move a year ago. The long opening section of the race through the province of Bergamo continues with the climb up the Passo della Crocetta to Dossena after 70km before the ascents of the Forcella di Bura and the Colle di Berbenno bring the race towards its midpoint.

There is some respite as Il Lombardia enters the long valley that leads towards Lake Como. However the big finale begins in earnest when the route reaches the lake shore at beautiful Bellagio and then swings back inland to tackle the Madonna del Ghisallo climb up to the cyclist’s chapel and the Ghisallo Museum.

The chapel bells will ring out across the lake as the riders pass but, with just 60km to go, there will be no time to enjoy the moment. The race will be ‘on’, with the steep final sectors of the Ghisallo climb likely to see some strategic action or the demise of the early attack after 192km of racing.

The fast road via Erba takes the riders to Lake Como for the final climbs and offers some brief respite but the three late climbs come after 220km of racing. Anyone without the legs or ambition for victory can fortunately climb off at the team buses in Como and make a dash for the last flight of the day out of Milan – another Il Lombardia tradition for a fatigued peloton.    

The 2022 Il Lombardia will be decided on the climbs overlooking Lake Como with the autumnal sun likely to create a unique warm yellow or bronze sunset colour that the French call mordoré. It is the colour of a classic Il Lombardia and of the end of the cycling season.

The first ascent of San Fermo della Battaglia comes with 32 very intense kilometres to go. It is only 2.7km long at 7.2% but zigzags up the side of the hill, offering plenty of points to attack. In the last 15 years a number of winners have gone solo here and descended to victory in Como.

This year the riders pass through the finish with 22km to go and then immediately tackle the Civiglio on the other, sunlit side of  the valley. The Civiglio is 4.2km long with an average gradient of 9.7%, with the hardest section cruelly in the penultimate kilometre. It is the place to attack for anyone feeling especially strong and will surely condemn many others to defeat.

A fast descent, that Nibali knows well and knows how to use to gain an advantage, leads back down to Como for the second and final ascent of San Fermo della Battaglia. The summit comes just 5km from the finish. Several sweeping curves project the riders onto the flat road overlooking the still waters of Lake Como and towards the finish line on the Lungo Lario Trento.

Il Lombardia contenders 

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The defending champion, Pogačar, will wear race number 1 after his 2021 triumph and his victory at the Tre Valli Varesine indicated he is near his form of 2021 and perhaps his best.

He lost the Giro dell’Emilia to Enric Mas (Movistar) last weekend but the 24-year-old Slovenian appears to have the team, the tactical nous and the finishing speed to take a second victory on Saturday. His UAE Team Emirates squad was decisive during Tre Valli Varesine and will include Rafal Majka, Davide Formolo, Diego Ulissi, and possibly João Almeida and even Vuelta a España revelation Juan Ayuso. No one will have a better team.  

It will be fascinating to see just how strong Vingegaard will be in a major one-day race and if he is inspired by a Tour de France revenge match with Pogačar.

The two have not raced against each other since July, with Pogačar somewhat retaking his crown despite a Tour defeat. Il Lombardia will be a true indication of the breadth of Vingegaard’s talents and ambitions.  

Vingegaard’s best monument result is 14th in last year’s Il Lombardia. He is Jumbo-Visma’s leader and looked good at the CRO Race but there is a significant difference between end of season stage racing and winning a Monument like Il Lombardia.

Nibali and Valverde’s last dance at Il Lombardia

Of course Il Lombardia is more than a Pogačar versus Vingegaard race.      

Alaphilippe’s current limits could  be exposed on the Civiglio and San Fermo della Battaglia climbs but the likes of Sergio Higuita and Bora-Hansgrohe teammate Aleksandr Vlasov could be a serious threat, along with 2019 winner Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo), Adam Yates (Ineos Grenadiers), Romain Bardet (Team DSM) and Pierre Latour (TotalEnergies).

Mas may want to ride for Valverde as he did at the Tre Valli Varesine but the Movistar rider arguably has the form to test Pogačar on the steep slopes of the Civiglio. Victory would confirm the gentile Spaniard has rediscovered his competitive spirit and prove his own team wrong.

Nibali and Valverde seem to have the form to go all the way, even on their final big day out, and so are true contenders for victory.

Nibali tried an attack at Tre Valli Varesine and hinted at a similar attack on Saturday. He won in 2015 and 2017 with panache attacks and appears to have the form for what would be a perfect, emotional send off in Italy.

“I feel good and can be up there and do something. It’s a good sign for Saturday but a lot of other riders feel good too,” Nibali said after Tre Valli Varesine, with little sign of being 37-years-old and with 15 seasons in the saddle.    

Valverde has ridden Il Lombardia 10 times during his long career but never won it. He was second in 2013, 2014 and 2019 and has a haul of other placings but Italy has never been friendly to him, right back to when the country's anti-doping investigators seized his DNA to confirm his blood doping and links to Operacion Puerto.

As statistician Ammattipyöräily highlighted on Twitter, Valverde's three most recent race results have been third, fourth and second at Tre Valli Varesine, with 348 podiums during his career. The only result missing from the final months of his career is a win. 

A Valverde victory at Il Lombardia would be an incredible ‘last dance’ for the Highlander of Spanish cycling.