Tour de France stage 18 preview - can all-conquering leader Tadej Pogačar defend his yellow jersey on the same climb where he lost the race in 2023?

'I'm gone. I'm dead.' With these words, Tadej Pogačar effectively recognised his definitive defeat in the 2023 Tour de France on the Col de la Loze, and two years later, as the peloton toils its way up the same mammoth, 26.5-kilometre Alpine climb, they will be floating in the air once again.

Will the UAE Team Emirates-XRG leader be able to gain revenge on his own legs, as he so graphically put it in his yellow jersey press conference of the evening before and remain in the lead all the way to the top?

Or will Jonas Vingegaard, the same rider who already had Pogačar on the ropes after the Combloux time trial in the 2023 Tour, manage to drop the Slovenian on the Loze as he did two years ago, and definitively put his arch-rival to the sword once again?

Either way, this is crunch time with a capital C in the 2025 Tour de France. The battle for third place between Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), currently in the provisional podium spot, and his closest pursuer Oscar Onley (Picnic-PostNL) will not be lacking in interest, of course.

On a stage featuring three Hors Categorie ascents and a summit finish on the Loze, the fight to resolve positions further down the GC will be equally intense. But the main feature will continue to be, once again, the latest round in the five-year duel between Vingegaard and Pogačar.

The positions are completely reversed from 2023, where Vingegaard began the stage with an important but still bridgeable advantage of 1:48 on the Slovenian and ended it still in yellow but with an utterly irreversible lead of 7:35.

This time, Pogačar is in command, and with a 4:15 gap. However, following the Mont Ventoux, where Visma-Lease a Bike and Vingegaard delivered a major onslaught on the yellow jersey with multiple attacks by the Dane, the sense that momentum is on his side has grown considerably stronger than it was after Pogacar's knockout performance on the Hautacam. So at this point in the game, there's no predicting quite how high in the mountains the yellow-and-black tide could reach.

The beauty of the situation, for fans if nobody else, is that we've reached the double-or-quits moment in the Tour. 'We can't see Paris yet, all we can see is the top of the Col de la Loze,' is how XDS-Astana sports director Mark Renshaw aptly put it to Cyclingnews on Wednesday, but as the toughest stage lying between here and the Champs Elysées on Sunday, if they want to win the Tour, Visma-Lease a Bike have no option but to go on the attack.

Vingegaard has stated clearly that he is prepared to sacrifice his second-place overall, which would be his third since 2021, in order to try and take the yellow jersey. It would not be surprising, therefore, that rather than try and conserve energy, Visma try to repeat their strategy of getting at least one or two riders in the early break, so that come the Loze, the Dane can count on their support to guide him up the final climb.

There are opportunities aplenty for the killer bees specialist climbers of the calibre of Simon Yates or Sepp Kuss, say, to move ahead of the pack alongside others keen to imitate lone breakaway Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) in 2023, who crowned the Loze ahead of the field prior to taking the win a few kilometres further on in Courchevel.

The Col du Glandon, a mere 21 kilometres long, is the opening challenge of the day once the race has left the start town of Vif. And that's followed by the equally daunting Col de la Madeleine, just a couple of kilometres longer but with a much steeper average gradient of 7.9%.

Both of these pale in comparison with the Loze, though, with an interminable total ascent of 26.4 kilometres, multiple ramps of over 10%, the most difficult at 6 kilometres from the summit, just where the climb hits the real high altitude of 2,000+ metres above sea level.

The Madeleine may be a more relentlessly steep climb, with almost no gradients at less than 6% - unlike the more uneven Loze - and the Glandon may have even more wildly varying gradients and pitches to test the riders' legs. But the Loze is both the last climb of the day and the highest of the entire Tour at 2,304 metres above sea level, and as such, the one most likely to be affected by the worsening weather set to hit the race late on Thursday afternoon.

Will the Col de la Loze history repeat itself, and Vingegaard get the better of Pogačar? Or will Pogačar put his ghosts of two years ago to rest with a commanding ascent of the climb that poleaxed his chances of a third Tour back in 2023? On Wednesday evening, Pogačar quietly pointed out that the ascent to the Loze is not exactly the same as two years ago, when the race came up the other side of the Alpine climb, so in the most literal of senses, it's not possible for a repeat scenario of 2023.

Perhaps more to the point, it's clear that the UAE leader is a much more accomplished climber than he was two years ago - and even then, he was hardly a poor one. As Vingegaard put it a few days ago, both he and the Slovenian made their biggest recent climbing progress in the mountains in 2024, so there can be no doubt that Pogačar will be much more difficult for even a much-improved Vingegaard to master this time round.

Yet the opportunities for the Dane to get the better of his rival are running out, and of the two Alpine stages left in the Tour, the Col de la Loze summit finish looks to be much more suitable to him than La Plagne 24 hours later. One way or another, by Thursday evening, the Tour's final outcome will be much clearer than it has been up to now. Or as the time-honoured cliché has it, from the top of the tallest, most difficult mountain of this year's race, you will - finally - be able to see the Champs Elysées.

Tour de France stage 18 details

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At 171.5km in length with three back-to-back hors catégorie climbs, including a summit finish atop the mighty Col de la Loze (26.4km at 6.5%), stage 18 marks the queen stage of this year’s Tour de France and where the race will likely be decided.

With attacks from the GC contenders expected on the final climb, time gaps between the favourites at the finish are an absolute certainty and should solidify the order in the overall standings heading into the final few days of the race.

It will be an attritional day, as the Col du Glandon (21.7km at 5.1%) should soften up the legs of the riders before they take on the more difficult side of the Col de la Madeleine (19.2km at 7.9%). A long descent will then be followed by a short bit of valley road before reaching the foot of the final climb at Brides-les-Bains.

The riders will then climb up to Courchevel, where the final ascent to the top of the climb begins. Climbing to over 2,300 metres above sea level, the stage victory isn’t the only prize up for grabs at the summit, as the winner will also be awarded the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, which marks the highest point in the race.

The high altitude will be but one among the many challenges that the riders will face throughout the stage, along with steep gradients of around 10% towards the summit of the Col de la Loze.

Weather conditions have also been a factor on this climb in the past, as hot temperatures in 2023 caused Tadej Pogačar to crack as Jonas Vingegaard sealed the maillot jaune at that year’s race.

Stage 18 Sprints

• Rioupėroux, km. 23.7

Stage 18 Mountains

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• Col du Glandon (HC), km. 62.3
• Col de la Madeleine (HC), km. 104.6
• Co de la Loze (HC), km. 171.5

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