'It was a snowball effect' – Oscar Onley's rapid transformation into an in-demand Tour de France contender

On July 17, 2025 a switch flicked for Oscar Onley as he rode the challenging slopes of the first big mountain stage of the Tour de France and looked back over his shoulder to see riders like Remco Evenepoel and Matteo Jorgenson slipping away behind him on the long testing climbs.

The Scottish Picnic PostNL rider may have moved up one spot on the overall standings that day, going from seventh to sixth overall, but what he walked away with was far more valuable even than a position on GC. Before that day of racing to the top of the Hautacam on stage 12 the Scottish rider had promise, after it he had proof.

Onley had undoubtedly already played a perfect hand on the shorter climbs that had materialised so far, which left him well-placed overall, but that was terrain he'd already proved suited him and "the Hautacam was something completely different". The 180.6km stage in the Pyrenees also packed in the category 1 Col du Soulor and the category 2 Col des Bordères which both peaked in the final 50km before the finish on top of the HC climb of the Hautacam.

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On the category 1 climb it crackled across the radio that Evenepoel had been dropped, so was Jorgenson for a time, but Onley was holding firm. There was regrouping again as the race headed toward the base of the Hautacam, but in the early stages of the 13.5km final ascent Onley was again among a select group that could hold on until the fireworks began between T​​adej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike). He ultimately finished fifth – not just ahead of Evenepoel but also a swag of other riders like Primož Roglič who had been highly placed on the pre-race favourite lists which Onley had been little more than an honourable mention on.

"From that moment on I started to believe a little bit more. It was a bit of a snowball effect," Onley told Cyclingnews as he looked back on that all-important day in the European summer while he started to prepare for what looks set to be another pivotal season.

"We went into the uphill TT, still in a good position, and then the following day improved again on my GC position going into the final week," said Onley who shifted up to fourth at that point. "From there, I gained a little more confidence, because something I struggle a little bit with is backing myself and having that confidence to belong there."

The 23-year-old who shifted up to the WorldTour in 2022 with a five-year contract with Picnic PostNL had been accumulating results in races like the Tour Down Under, where he had come fourth twice in a row, and in the run-up to the Tour de France he had also snared third overall at the Tour de Suisse. That fourth-place overall at the Tour de France which he managed to hold right through to the end was, however, another matter altogether.

"I think it's really accelerated everything, maybe a few years earlier than I was expecting," said Onley. "Because when I've spoken to the team in the past, we've always had this plan of going for GC and Grand Tours, and it's kind of something I've kind of put to one side, because, I mean, this was my second real Grand Tour, and so I'd never raced GC in a Grand Tour before."

That is an entirely different beast and finishing just one step off the podium, when he hadn't even entered the event with a serious GC challenge in mind, is just about as compelling an argument as there is to show just how squarely he now belongs in the ranks of the top overall contenders.

"[In] one-week stage races, you don't have these long climbs, and so it's hard to say after that I want to podium in a Grand Tour or without having any substance behind it. But obviously now I feel like I have a leg to stand on and I can put myself forward and say that I want to podium at a Grand Tour and ultimately win one in the coming years."

Team appeal

Onley is certainly not alone in that view of his future prospects. While the transfer of Evenepoel may have been the high profile transfer of the season, there is plenty of late season noise around the rider that was this year a stone's throw from the Tour de France overall podium. That means that while his contract may be in place till the end of 2027, when Onley shot to success in July there were plenty of teams who wanted to bolster their chances in France by seeing if they could snaffle the young rider.

Even this late in the season, the uncertainty surrounding where the rider will race next year is clear. He may have been half a world away in Australia but earlier this month news surfaced which made it clear plenty was going on behind the scenes in Europe, with the rider telling Cyclingnews from the sidelines of the Tour of Bright earlier in the month "we'll see" when asked if he would be riding with Picnic PostNL next year.

Plenty of teams have expressed interest with Daniel Benson's Cycling Substack having reported that it is Ineos Grenadiers – who are determined to return to the top step of the podium at the Tour de France – that is working on a late season deal.

Whether Onley makes the move to a bigger budget team or stays put at the squad where he started his career, given the accelerated path his showing at the Tour de France put the rider on, 2026 should be a big year.

The likelihood is that it will once again start with the Tour Down Under in January, an event where Onley has proven form, coming fourth overall the past two years. It was also the scene of his first WorldTour win when he stormed to the top of Willunga Hill in 2024. It's not only the step up in performance through the year that bodes well for his hopes to "at least get on the podium" but with a course that leans more heavily to the climbers this year there could be even more.

"I think if everything goes well, I can, I would hope to be in contention for the win," said Onley in early December. "But now that my goals are probably looking towards July, we have to discuss how important Down Under really is, because for me, I love racing there and I like making it a good goal at the start of the year, but is it the best prep for the Tour?

"Yeah, it's something we have to discuss but I hope to be there in good shape and competing for the win."

While the plans for the year ahead may still have been hazy, Onley discussed his broad plans after testing where his early off-season training had put him at the Tour of Bright – joking that it was a bit of a wake-up call after a less-than-cruisy stage up Tawonga Gap.

The Ardennes, he said, have appeal as "on paper, Flèche and Liège should suit me quite well" and while the Tour de France may be the only Grand Tour Onley has ever done it doesn't seem that he is eager to smooth his path toward a Grand Tour overall podium by looking away from France.

"When you've raced so well at the Tour, it's really hard to go to another Grand Tour straight away," said Onley.

Stepping up to the podium in July though, is no small task as with the depth of the field and the fact that Pogačar and Vingegaard have monopolised the top two steps for the past five years, meaning the competition for the one remaining spot left has been fierce.

"I think in the future, for sure, to try and get on a podium for the first time it is more of a viable way to do that through the Vuelta or the Giro before the Tour but you also have to look at the profile of the route as well," said Onley. "I think on paper, the Tour suits me quite well next year, with quite few TT kilometres and some climbs that I know, and that should suit me quite well."

To chase that podium goal, regardless of whatever team is around him, Onley isn't shying away from the fact that as huge as the steps forward he has made in recent years are, more are required. Onley pointed to his time trial as one of the areas where more work is required, with the first race against the clock on stage 5 this year in particular costing him more than two minutes to Evenepoel, a little under that to Pogačar and just over 40 seconds to Vingegaard.

"And obviously we'll try and improve that climbing ability a little bit more," said Onley. "For sure, there's gains to be made there, but I think we're already at a high level in that regard."

The third facet, then, he said, is race craft.

"I'm not Pogačar or Vingegaard so I need to look at other situations where I can take time."

Stepping up that race craft is in fact an area that will be crucial for his broader season goals for 2026 as well.

"I think if you look at my results this year, I'm always there or thereabouts, but I never feel like I win that much, and it's something that I really want to do – put my hands up in the air," said Onley who has a professional win tally of two – a Tour de Suisse stage in 2025 and the Tour Down Under stage in 2024.

"As a climber, that's hard because, you know, most races you go to there's an elite climber there but there's always opportunities elsewhere. I want to try and just get my hands up in the air a bit more often."