Pogačar vs Vingegaard: A physiological head-to-head – Where the battle will be won at the Tour de France

There is no doubt that Tadej Pogačar is the best cyclist in the world, if not the greatest cyclist of all time. But there is one rider in particular, a special Danish rider by the name of Jonas Vingegaard, who has beaten Pogačar twice at the Tour de France. The first time, one could argue, was a fluke. Jumbo-Visma organised a masterclass on stage 11, exposing Pogačar with their dual-leader strategy on the climb to Col du Granon. Pogačar lost nearly three minutes to Vingegaard that day, a greater deficit than he would finish behind the Dane in Paris.

Vingegaard had won the Tour de France, and in 2023, he set out to do it again. This time, the beating was even more severe. Pogačar finished seven and a half minutes behind the Dane, a result that seems unfathomable in the context of 2026. Pogačar is now leaps and bounds ahead of his rivals, it seems. No one has come close to beating the Slovenian in years.

So what was it about Jonas Vingegaard that gave him the ability to defeat Pogačar? Few riders have achieved such a feat in their entire cycling careers. Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert, for example, have beaten Pogačar in races like Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix. But there, the differences are obvious. Van der Poel and Van Aert have at least 10kg on Pogačar, maybe even 15kg. In races as flat as these, the raw power advantage is real.

But when it comes to Grand Tours, Pogačar and Vingegaard are much more closely matched. They are nearly the same height, yet one of the riders is much lighter than the other. In this article, we’ll dive deep into the physiologies of Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard before discussing the potential effects this could have on the Tour de France, from the team time trial on stage 1 to Alpe d’Huez on stage 19.

Welterweight vs Lightweight

The most obvious place to begin this physiological comparison is by looking at Pogačar and Vingegaard on paper. They are listed as nearly identical in height – Pogačar is 176cm while Vingegaard is 175cm – but Pogačar is significantly heavier than the Dane.

In fact, they are in entirely different weight classes, with Vingegaard weighing 5 to 6kg less than Pogačar. But in the sport of cycling, weight is not a constant, and we have actually seen these riders change weight over the years. According to years of climbing calculations and interview quotes, it seems like Vingegaard has gained a small amount of weight since his first years as a pro, while Pogačar has lost some weight.

First, let’s look at the two-time World Champion. Teammates have said that at the beginning of his career, Tadej Pogačar ate like a normal person. He wasn’t weighing his food or measuring portions of white rice. He would eat whatever he wanted during training and racing. The end result was that he was slightly overweight, probably around 67kg. Before 2020, Pogačar was still posting his power data on Strava, and if you go back and analyse those power outputs, you’ll notice that they are quite high. Now this is obvious if you know anything about Tadej Pogačar, but when you use his old climbing times to calculate his power-to-weight ratio, it was not the most impressive.

Fast forward to 2026, and we know that Pogačar races at around 66kg in the spring and 64 to 65kg in the summer. This is entirely intentional, a way for Pogačar to gain raw power and muscle for the Spring Classics and lose that excess weight for the pure w/kg tests at the Tour de France. When Pogačar lines up for the Tour, you can see that he is very lean in his chest and upper body. Take a look at a photo from Paris-Roubaix, and you will notice the difference in upper body muscle that he was carrying.

Now let’s take a look at Jonas Vingegaard, a lightweight rider who tips the scales at some 60kg. He began his career in the high 50s, so it’s likely that Vingegaard has actually gained weight since the start of his career. That weight translates into more power output, and we can see how much the Dane has improved his punch and sprint in recent years. He’s even outsprinted Pogačar – a rider who can win a reduced bunch sprint – on multiple occasions.

Some databases list Vingegaard at 58kg, but our recent calculations suggest the Dane weighs about 60kg, if not 61kg. That means that Vingegaard is losing a significant amount of raw power to Pogačar at all times. If both riders are pushing 6w/kg, the difference is 390w for Pogačar to Vingegaard's 360w. At 7w/kg, the difference extends to 455w versus 420w.

When riding full gas on the climbs at the Tour de France, Pogačar is pushing 7% more power than Vingegaard even if their w/kg outputs are identical. Normally, you’d say that Vingegaard still has the advantage on climbs because of his power-to-weight ratio. But at the speeds they are climbing nowadays, raw power is still faster until the climb becomes steeper than 10%. Pogačar can climb up an 8% climb in the big ring, suggesting the speed isn’t low enough for his extra five kilograms to become a disadvantage.

On top of the raw power difference between Pogačar and Vingegaard, we also have to factor in the physical and mental toll of getting to race weight. For Vingegaard, the process is likely uncomplicated. He doesn't have to worry about losing weight in the lead-up to the Tour. In fact, he is probably more focused on fueling his training and recovery rather than cutting back.

In contrast, Pogačar seeks to lose weight in the lead-up to the Tour. While it isn’t a crazy amount of weight to lose (one to two kilograms in two to three months), it still can take a toll physically and mentally. Riders like Remco Evenepoel likely lose even more weight between winter and summer, something that the Belgian got right in 2024, but he hasn’t been able to recreate that consistent, world-class climbing form.

What does this all mean for the Tour de France? It means that one rider can take advantage of certain stages, while the other will have to limit their losses.

Flats, hills, mountains and time trials

With all else equal, more power on the flat means more speed on the flat. That gives Pogačar the upper hand on most terrain at the Tour de France. Until the gradient exceeds 10%, Pogačar’s raw power advantage will translate into superior speed.

While Vingegaard used to struggle more on the flats, punchy hills, and crosswind stages, the Dane seems to have improved his weaknesses significantly. In fact, Vingegaard is one of the strongest riders on the flat, despite weighing only 60kg. He has certainly improved his raw power output and aerodynamic position – remember when he was the only rider able to follow Evenepoel in the crosswinds at this year’s Volta Ciclista a Catalunya? (The stage where Evenepoel crashed on his own in the final roundabout.)

Flats and crosswinds are no longer a weakness for Vingegaard, but that doesn’t mean that Pogačar no longer has the advantage. Every stage is being raced harder and harder each year, which means a greater total workload, especially on the flats between mountains. If UAE Team Emirates-XRG is pulling the peloton through a valley at 50kph, it will take a certain amount of raw power to sit in the bunch. If that requirement is 300w, it is easy for Pogačar, an output that is at the top end of his zone 2. But 300w for Vingegaard is a higher percentage of his threshold, and a higher w/kg for the lighter Dane. When all else is equal on the flat, Vingegaard is strong enough to stay with Pogačar, but he is also working harder, accumulating more fatigue before the final climb has even begun.

When it comes to time trials, it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reason that Pogačar is better than Vingegaard. Of course, the Slovenian has more raw power. But at 55kph, aerodynamics matter more than power, and that’s why Evenepoel is a better time trialist than Pogačar. With all due respect to the Belgian, he is not putting out more power than Pogačar in a 20km time trial. In fact, Velon CC posted some of Pogačar’s power data from the Tour de Suisse, where he won the time trial by less than a second ahead of Mathieu van der Poel. The Slovenian was pushing 450w on the time trial bike, an output of nearly 7w/kg in the aero position. I have never seen numbers like that on a TT bike.

Pogačar’s power – Stage 4 TT at the Tour de Suisse

Time: 8:46

Avg power: 450w (6.9w/kg)

Vingegaard has done some incredible time trials in the past, but he has also done a number of poor ones. This year’s Tour begins with a 20km team time trial in Barcelona, which ends on a punchy 700-metre climb. In this stage, team strength will matter more than an individual rider’s raw power output. But that will change on stage 16 when there is an individual time trial with a 9.6 kilometre climb. With an average grade of only 4.2%, Pogačar will have the advantage on the climb, as well as on the 10 km of flat before the finish. Realistically, Vingegaard will have a better chance at beating Pogačar the day before on the steep climb to Plateau de Solaison.

This is a very similar climb to the Col du Granon where Vingegaard finally took the reins from Pogačar in 2022 and left the Slovenian pedaling in squares. But a steep gradient wasn’t the only factor that day. Another was the heat.

Heat as a physiological weakness?

Hot and humid weather was once a weakness for Tadej Pogačar. Of the few times in his career when he completely cracked, nearly all of them have been in the heat. But since then, Pogačar has not shown signs of weakness in the heat. According to his coach, Javier Sola, Pogačar has been heat training consistently for the last few seasons. That seems to have solved his hot-weather performance problem.

But if there was a weakness there at one point in Pogačar’s physiology, it could still exist. Even if the chances are only 0.01%, Vingegaard will try to expose Pogačar in the heat. The Dane has always been strong in hot conditions, especially at the Tour de France. It’s difficult to say exactly where this physiological difference comes from, but the contrast is notable.

Pogačar excels in cold and rainy conditions, and he seems to have fixed his performance problems in the heat. Despite hailing from Denmark, Vingegaard excels in the heat, while also holding his own in the cold and wet. Physiologically speaking, heat adaptations are quick and easy with modern sports science. Almost every professional cyclist does heat training, especially before a summer race like the Tour. There is no doubt that both Pogačar and Vingegaard have been preparing to race in the heat, but the question is, could Pogačar’s old weakness be exposed?

Known power data

When you put all the pieces of the physiology puzzle together, you begin to form these two distinct riders. Both are incredibly strong, with world-class raw outputs as well as power-to-weight ratios. But one rider is five kilograms heavier than the other, and that means bigger power numbers.

We’ve gathered power data from Strava and Velon CC, and this is the difference between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard.

When Pogačar is riding full gas, he is pushing 450-470w (6.9-7.2w/kg) for an extended period of time. Keep in mind, these are the average outputs that he will do on a 30-40 minute climb. To get the winning gap, he will push 600-700w (9.2-10.8w/kg) for up to a minute to squeeze his rivals off his wheel. Rumour has it that Pogačar can push 500w for 20 minutes, a ridiculous output of 7.7w/kg. These numbers seem impossible, but when you look at the speed that Pogačar is climbing, the times that he is putting down, and the gaps between himself and the rest of the best cyclists in the world, it all adds up.

Pogačar’s Power – Stage 5 of the Tour de Suisse

Time: 9:39

Avg power: 470w (7.2w/kg)

The scary part is that, even being five kilograms lighter, I’m not sure that Vingegaard can match Pogačar’s power-to-weight ratio. The Dane can push incredible numbers, well over 400w (6.7w/kg) for an extended period, which makes him one of the world’s best climbers at 60kg. But up against Pogačar’s numbers, it’s difficult to even come close.

Vingegaard dominated this year’s Giro d’Italia, putting up some 7w/kg climbing performances, but only for the final few kilometres. Similar to the timing of Pogačar’s attack at the Tour de Suisse, you can see the difference not only in raw power but also in their w/kg.

Vingegaard's power – Stage 9 of the Giro d’Italia

Time: 7:30

Avg power: 420w (7w/kg)

Avg Gradient: 10.4%

One of the things, ironically, that could save Vingegaard at the Tour is the speed that Pogačar is riding on climbs. While a 7% grade isn’t steep enough to favour Vingegaard, it means that Pogačar will be riding at more than 25kph in the big ring. At this high speed, the drafting benefit becomes significant, and instead of matching Pogačar’s output, Vingegaard could save 30-40w in his draft. If you imagine Pogačar pushing 450w and Vingegaard pushing 400w, the physiological differences start to even out if Vingegaard is sitting in the draft.

That brings us to the final piece of the puzzle, the weapon that Pogačar has been sharpening for the past few years: a seated acceleration at over 10w/kg.

If Vingegaard is able to save that much energy in the draft, then he has a chance of staying with Pogačar. But if the Slovenian can knock Vingegaard out of his wheel and into the wind, it will be impossible for Vingegaard to close the gap because of Pogačar’s superior power output. Thus, Pogačar needed a way to get Vingegaard out of his draft. He couldn’t just attack on the steep sections of the climb because that’s where Vingegaard could match him. He couldn’t rely on a teammate’s leadout because Vingegaard was able to match his 10-second burst. But then Pogačar started accelerating in a seated position.

This kept the speed as high as possible, favouring raw power output rather than w/kg. When the speed is higher, it’s more difficult for Vingegaard to match the raw power of Pogačar. So the Slovenian worked on that seated snap, and we’ve seen time and time again that Pogačar is able to power away at 600, 700, even 800w while planted in the saddle. Vingegaard has been copying this style, as we saw at this year’s Giro d’Italia.

That is still the problem Vingegaard has yet to solve. But we’ve seen him arrive at the Tour with secret weapons that don’t come into play until halfway through the race. While you’re watching the best riders in the world this July, keep an eye on those seated accelerations and the difference in physiology between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard.