Jonas Vingegaard will try, but in reality, no one is likely to upset the Tadej Pogačar show at the Tour de France – Philippa York analysis

Can anyone upset the Pogačar show at this year's Tour de France?

Looking through the results of this season so far would suggest that the simple answer is no, they can’t. Outside of the speciality races like Paris-Roubaix, whenever Tadej Pogačar has been on the start line everyone else has been racing for second place.

The stats tell the story more starkly than merely revisiting the performances, thirteen wins from sixteen race days. His worst result is a 12th place but that anomaly is more down to the escapees surviving to dispute the victory than any hint of weakness on the part of the world champion. Domination doesn’t come more clearly than the current 2026 season we have witnessed so far.

Hence, all things considered, Pogačar starts his campaign to join the Tour five-time winners' club as the outright favourite. There isn’t one terrain or stage of this 113th edition that ought to pose a problem.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG are dedicated to ensuring his success, they have no sprinter to complicate the flat stages, the hilly days are covered by Nils Polit, Tim Wellens and Florian Vermeersch and then then there’s the mountain guys who would be leaders in the their own right if on another team: Adam Yates, Brandon McNulty and Isaac Del Toro. The last spot looks like being between Jay Vine and Pavel Sivakov with either bridging the all important role of being strong enough to help Politt and co. on the flatter days but also perfectly capable of being there deep into a mountain stage.

You can moan about all that talent being in one team but that’s how it’s always been: the best team attracts the biggest sponsors with the deepest pockets and the resulting successes attract the best riders. In terms of recruitment, UAE have built the machine that allows Pogačar to function and if plan A doesn’t work out, they have riders like Del Toro waiting to take over. The Mexican might be starting his first Tour but he’s there with an eye on the future and to take some of the pressure off Pogačar if the opportunity presents itself.

Challenging such domination is going to be difficult however one rider is sure to try, and that rider is Jonas Vingegaard. Visma-Lease a Bike losing Wout van Aert to injury will affect their race but the Giro d’Italia confirmed that Vingegaard is back to his climbing best and will push Pogačar to his limit in the highest mountains.

The opening team time trial and the individual TT of stage 16 are where I expect the Visma leader to be most worried. Both occasions look to be days where time is lost rather than gained, perhaps not by much, but psychologically it means that Vingegaard then has to be wondering where he can take those seconds back. With Pogačar’s current form, there won’t be many chances until the final week and the double Alpe d’Huez finishes.

Visma have a great team and it’s perhaps not as great as UAE in every role, however the Tour always comes down to a rivalry between two riders. In this era that’s been Tadej Pogačar versus Jonas Vingegaard and I don't expect that to change here, if anything Vingegaard looks to be climbing on par with his rival so the bonus seconds and the TTs could be the deciding factors. They’ll certainly influence the tactics between the two big names.

The fight between the rest

Now for the riders behind the two big names. Normally I would have said this is where Remco Evenepoel sits, however he’s been very quiet since the Classics and there’s no race form indicating where he sits in the hierarchy.

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe had a decent enough Giro d'Italia with Jai Hindley on the podium but the Tour is another level higher again and seeing as Vingegaard cruised through that race doing enough to win but not going too deep, I expect to see the Australian in the service of Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz in France. The latter may have just won the Tour of Slovenia but he hasn’t beaten any of the riders he will be in direct competition with this year for a top-five place and I don’t see that changing.

Del Toro and Paul Seixas will be thinking the same and that’s before you include Juan Ayuso or Mattias Skjelmose. The young German will profit from Evenepoel taking most of the pressure, but this year looks like being a bumper edition where everyone turns up with a defined goal and the candidates for the top 10 are numerous.

The main interest of all the newcomers has to be Paul Seixas of Decathlon CMA CGM, a team who are now back to being a GC squad after a brief period of restructuring around one day racing. The hype around Seixas seems to be justified and though he hasn’t raced Grand Tour or any stage race even remotely close to them in length, the signs are there.

The pressure will certainly be on him and the start in Barcelona is perfect terrain to show just how good he can be. Surviving to the final week is an altogether different matter but until then he will be influential in how that top 10 is raced. The second week's terrain is far from easy and ideal for attacking riders which, given how we’ve seen Seixas race so far, will be ideal for him. I don’t think we will be disappointed with his performances whilst he is in the race, though him withdrawing as the Tour heads towards the Alps may not be a surprise either.

Netcompany Ineos are in a difficult situation with their leaders for the Tour. Oscar Onley has had a bit of a nightmare season after transferring from Picnic PostNL. DNF at Paris-Nice, Romandie and the Dauphiné and he’s not sure to start, which may remove one issue in who is team leader, but it adds another because none of Kevin Vauquelin, Thymen Arensman or Carlos Rodríguez seem likely to be battling with Lipowitz, Seixas and Del Toro. They might finish with them some days but it’ll be the exception to the norm for them.

The opening TTT is the Ineos' big chance to be in the limelight and that middle week struggle through the Massif Central where Vauquelin, if he’s out of the GC squabble, has the perfect terrain for his battling style. One thing is for sure, their press conference will say they have multiple options for the GC, but realistically, they won’t be surrounding any of the big names.

For me, the only British hope for success is Tom Pidcock, who doesn’t have to pretend he’s riding for the overall classification and can concentrate on stage wins instead. That is a goal which he can certainly reach and one which ought to suit his characteristics more than being quiet, careful and staying patient until the last week. In terms of producing a stellar one-day performance Pidcock is up there with the best. The tricky part at the Tour is delivering on the chosen day.

The points classification looks like being the hardest to decipher. Tim Merlier, Jasper Philipsen, Jordi Meeus, Olav Kooij, Binian Girmay, Dorian Godon, and Mads Pedersen will be looking at each of the 7 sprint stages in detail. Three opportunities in the opening segment, then after the first rest day there are two flat stages in the middle week and two more in the final part – though one of them, the Paris finish, has Montmartre to negotiate.

Soudal-QuickStep and Alpecin have the teams to control and set up a big bunch sprints because neither have a proper GC rider to protect. The same for NSN and Girmay but to a much lesser extent, and it’s a similar role for Lotto Intermarché and Arnaud De Lie. Mads Pedersen has Ayuso and Skjelmose riding a GC race at Lidl-Trek but he has the advantage that the lumpy second week opens the possibility of infiltrating the break and accumulating points that way.

All in all it ought to be a fascinating Tour de France. Will Tadej Pogačar make it five wins, will a fully fit Jonas Vingegaard outclimb everyone and will Remco Evenepoel revisit the Paris podium? Then there’s Paul Seixas for whom the whole of France expects a performance that gives them hope that one day they'll see one of theirs on that top step again. Not long until these questions are answered.

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