By winning the Giro d'Italia, Jonas Vingegaard has had his strongest Tour de France preparation yet – but we still have no idea how he'll compare with Tadej Pogačar

Jonas Vingegaard versus Tadej Pogačar. The rivalry that has come to define Grand Tour racing, particularly the Tour de France, for the last half a decade.

Even though the pair may only actually race each other in one or two races per year, one cannot do anything without the other's name being invoked – or, perhaps more accurately, Vingegaard cannot do anything without Pogačar's name being invoked.

He wins five stages of the Giro d'Italia, and we're still talking about how Pogačar won six. The Dane ticks off the Grand Tour triple, and it is seen not just through the lens of the achievement itself, but the fact that he did it before his perennial rival.

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Sometimes it does go the other way, and maybe there will be a mention of how Vingegaard never does this whilst Pogačar racks up his Monument wins. But even then, the relationship dynamic is one-sided: Pogačar is the benchmark, apparently in a league of his own, the example to which Vingegaard is always compared.

In a lot of ways, that can seem utterly unfair, and you can tell that it's something Vingegaard has little regard for, moving swiftly on from any mention of Pogačar – like when he was constantly brought up during the Giro, despite not even being there. Equally, Pogačar rarely engages in any attempts to pit the two against each other.

And it's not a form of animosity; in fact, it's always felt like the opposite. The pair have always had immense respect for each other, get along better than most rivals, and seem pleased to have someone to constantly challenge their level. It's because of this that neither feels compelled to join in on the endless comparison, respecting their own and each other's achievements separately.

As they should be, of course. It is enormous for Vingegaard to win the Giro d'Italia and join the small club of Grand Tour triple winners, and that should be celebrated in its own right.

But with the Tour de France rapidly approaching, where the two are expected to do battle for the sixth consecutive time, it is impossible to extricate the two riders from each other for long. Vingegaard's Giro victory is a success in itself, but it is also an important step on the way to the Tour. The question is, though, how much can it actually tell us about how he might compare to Pogačar this time around?

Vingegaard's best build-up yet

Perhaps before we compare Vingegaard to Pogačar for the millionth time, we should first compare Vingegaard to himself. And in that regard, Vingegaard has had one of his best Tour de France build-up periods yet.

Taking on the Giro and the double for the first time in 2026, Vingegaard had a novel programme for the first half of this year, skipping many of the races he'd usually do to try a totally different shaped calendar as he tries to return to Pogačar-beating levels.

Admittedly, the year did not start well, missing the UAE Tour because of that controversial, fan-related crash, but then he won both Paris-Nice and the Volta a Catalunya with relative ease, and of course trounced the Giro. And he did not go over his limit in Italy, did not spend more time than needed in the pink jersey or go for every stage win possible. He was clinical and measured, doing enough to win and not a whole lot more.

With three GCs and nine individual wins under his belt, this is undeniably the best Tour build-up Vingegaard has ever had. Better than 2022, where he took a couple of wins before winning the Tour, and arguably better than 2023, when he won O Gran Camiño, Itzulia Basque Country and the Dauphiné before winning the Tour.

And this year has obviously been better than 2024, where Vingegaard had an awful crash at Itzulia and still finished second overall at the Tour. Similarly, in 2025, his Tour prep was hampered by a crash and bout with concussion from Paris-Nice, and again he came second, not ever really on the level of Pogačar. But the last time he had a Tour run-in this good, he won it.

Physically, Vingegaard's form right now cannot be faulted. He's not injured, he seems healthy, and his shape was clearly a level above everyone else in Italy. You may argue that the level of competition was nowhere near what it will be in France, and whilst that's true in some obvious ways, it doesn't mean it was an asterisked win for Vingegaard. He beat former Grand Tour winners and very strong riders on very difficult climbs.

When Pogačar simply rides away, it's dominance and unmatched ability, but when Vingegaard does it, it's because his rivals aren't good? That doesn't seem to make much sense. Unless there were literally no other climbers in the race, I don't think there's any way to argue that Vingegaard isn't on a very high level right now.

But more importantly, Vingegaard seems to also be mentally in the zone. The impact of a so far unimpeded run-in to the Tour cannot be understated, and the Giro went as smoothly as it could have been. He seems calm, confident, and relaxed. At no point in the Giro did he have to stress, nor overexert himself or his team. He will likely come away from this race knowing that he won with still some more left to give. That's a supremely good place to be in before the Tour.

What does it mean for the Tour de France?

That is the big question. And the answer is contradictory. On one hand, it's fair to say that it looks like Vingegaard is going to start this year's Tour de France in better shape than he has for the last two, in a really strong place mentally and physically, with the confidence of knowing he has previously only got better in his second Grand Tour of the year. In isolation, the signs for Vingegaard are all fantastic.

But on the other hand, what we know about how he may compare to Pogačar is practically zero. Pogačar has raced one stage race, the Tour de Romandie, with a much lower level of competition than Vingegaard faced at the Giro, and the two are yet to face each other this year. Those more adept at analysing climbing times and power data might be able to tell you more than me, but really, we have very little to go off.

Therefore, I'm hesitant to join either school of thought right now. Some people will be out there saying yeah, Vingegaard won the Giro, but Pogačar has blatantly been better the last two years, and shouldn't be worried about not winning his fifth Tour this summer. Those on the other side will say Vingegaard's achievement at the Giro is proof he's at the top of his Grand Tour game, and ready to truly threaten Pogačar in France. Either argument could be true.

All we know is that Vingegaard is going better than he has for the last two years, and Pogačar is also as dominant as ever. With only Pogačar racing the Tour de Suisse between now and then, we're unlikely to find out much more about either rider in the weeks before the Grand Départ in Barcelona.

What I will predict, however, is that we are going to get a really good battle. This era-defining rivalry between Vingegaard and Pogačar has actually been caveated on many occasions: Vingegaard's Itzulia crash, Pogačar's wrist, various other factors – often, the pair have not come into the Tour on completely equal footing, and the results have reflected that.

But this year, finally, it looks like we're going to be treated to two riders, both at the top of their game, as unencumbered as possible. Only the French roads are going to tell us who is stronger this time around, but for now, we can look forward to an all-out fight between two greats.

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