Don't be surprised by Pogačar's early dominance, history shows it's how every serial Tour de France winner succeeds - Philippa York analysis

'The Tour is Over’ was the headline at the conclusion of Thursday's big Pyrenean stage. On the menu for the sixth day of the 2026 Tour de France was the Col d’Aspin, the Col du Tourmalet, and a long uphill grind to the relatively unknown finish in Gavernie-Gèdre. Tadej Pogačar blasts the favourites group apart, and that’s it; the race has taken a direction of travel with only one outcome. Somehow, everyone is surprised, shocked, or appalled. For many, it’s all three emotions, and the culprit is the pre-race favourite who is also the guy chasing a fifth overall victory.

Oh, ye of little memory. Can it really be a surprise that after the first GC rendezvous, there has been a GC sort-out? I mean, what has Tour de France history taught us about this situation? Well, you don’t have to go back to the days of the 'Club des Cinq' to be reminded of how that select group got their campaigns started almost every time they won. They went all in on the first proper GC test, blasted the competition aside and controlled the situation to their advantage from then on.

They would lay down a dominant physical performance that said quite plainly, 'don’t even think about overturning my lead; otherwise, I’ll do it again, and you’ll be even further behind.' A physical blow and a psychological beating were delivered in that opening encounter. Anquetil and Indurain would do it in a time trial, whereas Merckx and Hinault could do it either in a TT or the first big mountain stage, and that would be their textbook play. Any opportunity afterwards would be icing on the cake that already had their name on it. Even when Team Sky came along with Wiggins and Froome, it was the same thing: hit them hard on the stage where the GC hierarchy would be determined, then control from then on – shock and awe tactics at their finest.

Watching UAE Team Emirates-XRG set the tempo on Aspin and then open up fully on the hardest parts of Tourmalet, I was immediately reminded of the Col de Romme in 2021. Pogačar had won his first Tour the year before in the final time trial, deposing Primož Roglič at the last minute, so he started the following year as favourite. On the first GC day, stage 8 finishing with a Romme-Colombière double before the descent into Le Grand-Bornand. Davide Formolo led out at the beginning of the penultimate climb, Pogačar then attacked, and only Richard Carapaz tried to follow but got blown off the wheel for his troubles. Tadej blasted up the Colombière, down the other side, and though he didn’t win the stage on that occasion, his GC rivals lost three minutes. In the overall standings, Jonas Vingegaard, who went on to be his closest competition, was at five minutes. The Dane only conceded another 20 seconds by the time the race reached Paris, but the damage of stage 8 set the tone. All in, let's see who is where and if you can’t follow, then it’s going to be very difficult to overturn any losses incurred.

After TTT triumph, Visma's frailties have been exposed

The historic lessons are there, and then there were the two road stages in Barcelona as a precursor to what was going to happen on the Tourmalet when La Mongie came into view. Visma-Lease a Bike winning the team time trial was a slight surprise and probably a wake-up call to Pogačar and company. Especially given that their big rivals were sans Wout Van Aert but could still deliver such a performance, yet the reply came the very next day. Issac del Toro led out in the final uphill finish, Tadej let the wheel go and, seeing no one was capable of closing the gap, waited until the right moment and rode across to his protegé. I’m not of the opinion that he let the Mexican win and more in the camp of Del Toro deserved the stage honours, which was an outcome that the world champion didn’t need to challenge.

And then the next day, on a slightly harder finish, Del Toro repaid the favour with Pogačar taking the stage and the yellow jersey off the shoulders of Vingegaard.

We had the perfect start to the Tour: Vingegaard with two days in the race lead, the UAE guys dictating the peloton, and Del Toro and Pogačar the strongest climbers in the first few skirmishes. Everything pointed to the Pyrenees being the opening battle in the GC war, and so when Adam Yates stood on the pedals through the avalanche shelters approaching La Mongie, those riders in the first group knew this was where the real test was happening. Del Toro accelerated out of the last tunnel onto the wide open section where you are hoping for a breather before the passage through La Mongie, and Pogačar took over. As soon as Vingegaard looked around for help, they knew the Dane was in trouble. If he didn’t close the 10-second gap on the ramp out of the village, he wasn’t going to do it in the final 3.5km to the summit.

Turns out he couldn’t, went too deep, and Pogačar never let him recover on the descent. By the time they reached Luz St Sauveur, for Vingegaard it was perfectly clear who was the strongest, and the 20km of rising valley road to the line were where he lost another two minutes to Pogačar. The body language said he was done, but Pogačar wasn’t exactly fresh either; he may have won the stage and reclaimed yellow, but it cost him too. He had to ride at 100 per cent to break the will of everyone, and that’s not something we have seen too often in the last couple of years. There’s hope yet, and he’s not five minutes behind like he was in 2021 when Pogačar blew everyone away in similar circumstances. A 2:42 deficit is one bad moment and a tactical mistake in the Alps. The GC isn’t done, but it’ll be difficult to poke a hole in the UAE armour.

I think what is more worrying is that, so far, Visma's climbers haven’t shown the level they need to take on the UAE armada. Sepp Kuss and Davide Piganzoli were expected to be near their leader in crucial moments, and they’ve been patchy.

The euphoria of having the first yellow jersey has worn off quickly, and the sprint and transition stages that preceded and followed the Pyrenees have shown that Van Aert’s absence could be a factor in the next phase of the race. Victor Campenaerts does his role of protecting Vingegaard well; however, they don’t have a rider who can cover the breakaways and be a really useful asset on a really hard day. If they have to use Matteo Jorgensen on the tough stages between the big mountains, then he’s going to be dropped earlier when the major climbs are the crunch moments. The Dutch squad might be waiting on UAE to falter, but so far that scenario hasn’t looked likely. On the contrary, Pogačar and his teammates are in a good place and probably thinking about getting Isaac Del Toro into the runner-up spot come Paris. All the interactions between the race leader and the Mexican champion seem to be 'this is the how, where and when of the Tour and if you stay close to Tadej then you’ll learn how things work at this level.'

While others falter, could Del Toro and Seixas capitalise?

Del Toro is in a similar position to Paul Seixas, except he has less pressure than the young French star and more freedom to initiate situations without intense scrutiny of his motives. With nine days of racing done, Seixas is in unknown territory as far as his recovery and strength are concerned. He has handled the conditions and stresses at this level remarkably; the Tourmalet didn’t break him, and he was one of the strongest in that test, so how he manages this middle week will be interesting. Decathlon have had their good surprise with Olav Kooij winning the first of the bunch sprint finishes, so the Seixas story can develop at its own pace. However, I imagine the Red Bull duo of Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz will not only be looking at each other but also at the Decathlon leader very closely.

There’s always some intra-team drama on the Tour, and this year it looks like it’s going to be a Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe affair. Remco hasn’t got full control of his emotions yet, so we will probably see more outbursts if he has a difficult moment or two. Compared to Lipowitz, who seems unfazed by most things, Remco hasn’t quite mastered dealing with not meeting his own expectations or those he has placed on others. He’s looked good, sometimes ominously so, but whether that translates into being directly involved in testing Pogačar and Del Toro remains to be seen. There’s plenty of time ahead where frustration is going to be knocking at his door again, and if it’s his co-leader whom he sees riding off into the distance, then there’ll be someone, probably from a Belgian media outfit, who’ll be asking how he felt in that moment.

The only thing for sure for Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe going into the first rest day is that their press conference will be well attended.

Pedersen's strategy for green is going to plan

Quoting the general media trend that Tadej Pogačar is going to win the race, the only classification of any contest looks set to be the points jersey. Mads Pedersen came with that in mind, and a Lidl Trek squad with that as the main aim alongside Mattias Skjelmose's GC challenge as an add-on. So far, Mads is doing what he has to do: get in the breaks, hoover up the points from there and make the top-10 in the sprint finishes if that’s how the stage pans out. As the middle part of the race develops, more of the pure sprinters will tire, and Pedersen will hopefully move from being in that 8-10th spot to the top five.

Binian Girmay isn’t letting him have that jersey just yet, though. However, neither are as fast as Tim Merlier, though given that Soudal QuickStep have ridden to make sure a bunch sprint happens, it seems like a fair reward for their efforts. Over at Alpecin-Premier Tech, who have done even more peloton pulling, it hasn’t quite gone as smoothly for Jasper Philipsen, despite the Mathieu van der Poel leadouts. The stage win means pressure is off now for MVDP, winning on a so-called traditional transition day. Those up-and-down days in 40 degrees with melting tarmac and energy-sapping little climbs in most of the descents are horrible, which explains why we see the likes of Tom Pidcock and Van der Poel giving 110 per cent on these occasions. They are basically Classics conducted under a blazing sun in the middle of a three-week race. Only 40 or so riders surviving in the main bunch tells the story that getting from the Pyrenees to the Alps is always going to come at some cost.

Sadly, as can also be a traditional happening, we lost a maillot jaune in the heat of the battle. For Uno-X, having Torstein Træen in the race lead was a dream come true, crashing and breaking bones less so, but they are in every escape, and Tobias Johannessen is involved in the GC battle too, so I would say that everything from now on is a happy bonus. It probably won’t be covered as much as the GC or Red Bull sagas to come, but there have to be good moments to sit alongside the ups and downs of life at the very top.