Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney reigns as queen of Mont Ventoux, but the Tour de France Femmes crown is still up for grabs – Analysis

On its Tour de France Femmes debut, Mont Ventoux more than lived up to its brutal reputation, even if the Giant of Provence didn't deliver a knockout blow in the fight for the yellow jersey.

In four previous editions of the race, the showpiece mountain has decided the fate of the maillot jaune, but this week all is still to play for as the Tour heads towards a thrilling finale in Nice.

In 2022, Annemiek van Vleuten rubber-stamped her dominance with victory atop La Planche des Belles Filles, while the next year Demi Vollering's Col du Tourmalet triumph put the race out of reach for Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney.

2024's grand finale on L'Alpe d'Huez saw the Polish racer hold off a Vollering charge to seal yellow, while last year, Pauline Ferrand-Prévot (Visma-Lease a Bike) rather dampened any final weekend tension with a remarkable solo up the Col de la Madeleine.

Certainly, there was no doubt about who was the strongest on Mont Ventoux, as Niewiadoma-Phinney sailed clear 9.7km from the line. She surged away from FDJ United-SUEZ leader Vollering and race leader Marlen Reusser (Movistar) before racing out of the forest, beating back the raging headwind, and placing her name alongside Gaul, Merckx, and Cooke on the climb's historic honour roll.

There's also no doubt that the race is far from over. The Tour's new leader raced across the line and past that famous communications tower a full 1:16 ahead of Vollering, but the podium trio – established in the Jura on stage 5 – are separated by fewer than 40 seconds.

The gaps could've been even greater but for the Dutchwoman's final kilometre charge. At 2km from the top, Niewiadoma-Phinney was almost 1:50 clear, but of course, there's nothing to regret for her after such a ride.

Instead, she and her support squad at Canyon-SRAM – including lieutenant Antonia Niedermaier and directeur sportif Rolf Aldag – will now look ahead and devise a strategy to withstand the inevitable assault on her new jersey.

To borrow a phrase coined by Reusser earlier in the week with her time trial focussed 'Project Dijon', they'll now need a 'Project Nice' as FDJ United-SUEZ will be set to marshal their considerable forces against Niewiadoma-Phinney, perhaps even on today's stage, though more likely in Sunday's far tougher finale over the Col d'Eze.

"I definitely expect a massive fight for basically everything – bonus seconds, sprints, everything – because the gap is so small," Niewiadoma-Phinney said after winning atop Ventoux, her attention already turning towards the upcoming challenge.

After four consecutive GC-focussed days, Canyon-SRAM will be thankful for a stage 8 that provides some respite, or at least a chance to take a breath as opposed to a day packed with hills. At least the opening 150km of the race's longest day should be fairly straightforward, before two fourth-category climbs – plus a potential banana skin in the form of the 450-metre wall, the Chemin de l'Arieta – in the final.

"Tomorrow we just see what's going to happen, ride in the front, stay in the front, make sure nobody from the top 10 goes anywhere," said team directeur sportif Rolf Aldag.

"Then, of course, Nice is going to be a big, big battle."

Another German, Niedermaier, will be key in winning that battle. In a head-to-head against FDJ, Canyon is outgunned in terms of full team strength, but the 23-year-old white jersey holder has been among the strongest riders in the race in her own right.

If Niewiadoma-Phinney is the team's present, then Niedermaier is the future – although given her recent second place at the Giro d'Italia it could also be fair to argue the she is their present as well. On Ventoux, she was by her team leader's side until Vollering's attack, and will be the single vital support figure in Canyon's yellow jersey defence, especially on Sunday.

Disappointment for Vollering, but opportunities remain

Any debate over whether Vollering might have made her move earlier, or whether she might have reacted to Niewiadoma-Phinney's initial acceleration – with her reflecting that "I really should have closed the gap straight away" – is now beside the point.

Vollering was clearly disappointed after the stage, which many expected to be her coronation and another of cycling's crown jewels added to her collection alongside the Tourmalet and L'Alpe d'Huez. But, looking on the bright side, there's 'only' 15 seconds to take back, half as much as she gained on Niewiadoma-Phinney with that final-kilometre jump on Ventoux.

That kind of acceleration may well be where this race is won and lost. Vollering has already made 14 bonus seconds compared with Niewiadoma-Phinney's four in the hills, even if no real-time seconds separated the pair in Lausanne and Belleville-en-Beaujolais.

Canyon-SRAM are well aware of this, with Aldag saying, "Theoretically, anything could happen. Even with bonus sprints, Demi would get there."

Of course, Niewiadoma-Phinney is an Amstel Gold Race and La Flèche Wallonne champion, and so this terrain is hardly a weakness for her. Vollering, a three-time Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner, has shown her own punchiness several times this week, and to date looks the stronger of the two in the hills. That is what the race may well hinge on as it turns away from its headline mountain south towards the Côte d'Azur.

Stage 8 – categorised as 'flat' in the roadbook – features a potential launchpad late on in the Côte de la Ginestière, 7.7km from the finish later on Saturday. The climb is far from the most challenging of the Tour, though, at 2.5km long and a relatively shallow 4.4% average gradient.

Instead, it may serve as a softener for the Chemin de l'Arieta. The 450-metre stretch of road, unmentioned in the race roadbook, is a wall, averaging 13%. Could Vollering and FDJ try something there?

If they decide against it, then they'll have just 99km to play with on Sunday – either that, or face a year-long wait for another go at yellow.

The final stage, with four ascents of the Col d'Eze – the first starting at kilometre zero – and an intermediate sprint after just 23.5km, will offer plenty of opportunities to make time. It's worth noting, however, that Vollering hasn't managed to fully drop Niewiadoma-Phinney this week.

Either way, the GC contenders have come together to realise race organiser ASO's dream scenario, with a game of seconds – that familiar tension of a Paris-Nice finale – playing out with three of the best riders on the planet.

Reusser clear of the rest and still in the fight for yellow

Behind the two champions duking it out for a second title lies Reusser, now relieved of the race lead after three days in yellow following her time trial triumph.

The Movistar leader's plan to turn 'Project Dijon' into 'Project Nice' hasn't worked out as she hoped, and the blow Niewiadoma-Phinney dealt on Ventoux looks likely to prove fatal to her chances of winning this Tour. She's still very much in the game, however, lying 39 seconds off the lead and 24 behind Vollering.

Reusser can afford to take a risk or two, as well. Between the time trial, the hills of stage 5, and Ventoux, a chasm lies beyond the final podium spot, and, barring a final weekend catastrophe, her 2:20 advantage over fourth-placed Elisa Longo Borghini (UAE Team L'IMAD) shouldn't be overturned.

Whether Reusser can make time on Niewiadoma-Phinney and Vollering in the hills around Nice is another matter. She is undoubtedly the best time triallist in the world, and many of her biggest road race successes have been built on that strength – from two of her Tour de Suisse victories to her 40km solo ride to glory at Gent-Wevelgem three years ago.

She's certainly a capable puncheur, but a 39-second turnaround will require a longer effort. At this point, a Marlen Reusser Tour de France Femmes victory would surely involve her going clear in Nice and using her time trial power to hold off her rivals.

At the risk of underestimating Reusser – something that happens far too often, she pointed out before the race – she is now clearly the race's third-favourite. A stage win and a final podium in Nice would be a fantastic outcome to her first 'real' Tour campaign, but, having had a taste of yellow, she will be dreaming of the jersey once more.

"I am a bit disappointed about today, because I still somehow believed it would have been possible," she told Cyclingnews after Ventoux.

"But it's always 'Would, would, would', so you need to do it, and Kasia did it."

Behind Reusser, there are plenty more battles to be fought, even if the podium places look to be well out of reach. Fourth place is certainly up for grabs, with Longo Borghini putting another 10 seconds between her and Niedermaier with a late burst to the finish line.

"I'm really looking forward to Nice. I mean, I hope to get to Nice, first of all!" Longo Borghini said afterwards, before noting that she'll be going on the attack once more.

Only 22 seconds separate her and Niedermaier ahead of the final weekend, though the German's priorities lie with her team leader and the yellow jersey.

Cédrine Kerbaol (EF Education-Oatly), 40 seconds further back, is on course for her third top-10 finish in a row. She moved up two places to sixth – equal with her career-best two years ago – with her Ventoux ride and will hope to jump up another in Nice.

"I quite like being more aggressive than that. I didn’t get the chance to be, as the pace was very high from start to finish," the Frenchwoman said atop Ventoux.

"Every day is a battle, and unexpected things happen. We’ll keep fighting right to the end."

Just over two minutes separate her and the 10th-place stage 6 winner Kim Le Court-Pienaar (AG Insurance-Soudal). UAE Team L'IMAD pairing Paula Blasi and Dominika Włodarzyk and Lidl-Trek's talented Canadian Isabella Holmgren lie in between them.

All will be looking to consolidate their position, especially Holmgren, the 21-year-old Tour de l'Avenir champion racing her first Tour. Last summer, UAE scored two stage wins, so they'll surely have ambitions here, while Le Court-Pienaar will be a favourite today if a reduced group comes to the line.

Beyond the yellow jersey changing hands, the biggest stage of the race has thrown up a host of side stories, but much of the focus will be on the 'big three' of the 2026 race as the denouement of another thrilling edition of the Tour de France Femmes looms.

Support our unrivalled coverage of the Tour de France Femmes and women's cycling by subscribing to Cyclingnews. In return, you get unlimited access to high-quality journalism, with breaking news, race analysis, and expert insight from inside the women's peloton. Plus, the Cyclingnews app lets you follow the action wherever you go! Join today.