Van der Poel, Van Aert lead challenge against Pogačar, but can debutant Evenepoel spoil the party in rare matchup? – Analysing the favourites for the men's Tour of Flanders

The second Monument of the 2026 season arrives this Sunday at the Tour of Flanders, with the stars of the sport aligning for an all-out battle over 278km from Antwerp to Oudenaarde, where the iconic bergs of the Flemish Ardennes come into focus.

Brutal cobbles and typical dreary Belgian spring weather are certain, and the racing will surely match it when it comes to difficulty. With all of the vital warm-up races completed at E3, In Flanders Fields and Dwars door Vlaanderen, the build-up of anticipation for the 110th edition of the Ronde van Vlaanderen is nearing its crescendo.

The opening 100km of racing will serve as the preamble to the absolute chaos, with six flat cobbled sectors and 16 cobbled climbs, 'hellingen', set to separate the best from the chasers. The Paterberg, Oude Kwaremont and viciously steep Koppenberg will take the headlines as the most essential climbs. However, there are several opportunities to make your rivals feel the pain across Sunday's iconic route.

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There will be a mix of former winners on the start line on Easter Sunday morning, but also willing challengers, with defending champion Tadej Pogačar the favourite to add a third Flanders title to his Milan-San Remo crown from earlier this year.

Practically all of the top Classics specialists are here to try and defeat him, from Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert, to Mads Pedersen and the wildcard surprise entry of Remco Evenepoel, who is making his debut at the race.

With that in mind, here are Cyclingnews' top contenders to conquer the roads of De Ronde and be named the 2026 men's Tour of Flanders champion in Oudenaarde.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Where else to start but Tadej Pogačar? The defending champion and a two-time winner, Pogačar has completely dominated the Tour of Flanders on his past two appearances, scorching away from everyone on the final of three ascents up the Oude Kwaremont, after blowing up the race completely on the second time up the longest cobbled climb on the route.

Tour de France winners aren't always suited to the short, sharp climbs that decide this iconic race, but Pogačar's punch has turned the cobbled roads into his playground, where even the best Classics operators can't match his brutal accelerations.

He does have a target on his back, as is the case at every race he starts, and his main rivals know that working with him to arrive at the foot of the Kwaremont together is likely setting themselves up for failure.

But Pogačar can often nullify any tactical headaches with his incredible ability to attack alone from range, so don't be surprised if he goes even longer at Flanders to reduce the risks, even at just his third race of 2026.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG have also impressed in his absence these past Flemish races, especially Florian Vermeersch, who should play a vital role in positioning and potentially leading out Pogačar on one of the climbs.

A big contender for the top five himself, Pogačar is in good hands with Vermeersch, making a repeat victory and record-equalling third victory at Flanders seem even more likely. He's equal on Monument titles with the great Roger De Vlaeminck, but he should move ahead of him as the next best behind Eddy Merckx on Sunday if he arrives at the key climbs safely.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech)

Mathieu van der Poel has proved the biggest challenge for Pogačar both at the Tour of Flanders and throughout the spring, but the Slovenian has proved too strong up the climbs even for the three-time winning Dutchman in 2023 and 2025.

Van der Poel outfoxed Pogačar on his debut at Flanders in 2022, just staying with him over the climbs before easily outsprinting him to the title in Oudenaarde. However, he hasn't had the climbing legs to match him up the repeated Kwaremont attempts at their past two Flanders face-offs.

Obviously wanting the outright record, Van der Poel will be expected to switch up his tactics to try and take a fourth victory, knowing that just trying to follow Pogačar when he makes his inevitable huge attack is often a stretch too far, even for him.

Alpecin-Premier Tech are the experts in these races, and while the Dutchman has lost some of that firepower in Gianni Vermeersch heading to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, he and the savvy Roodhooft brothers are surely hatching a plan.

Coming off the back of a close but successful E3 Saxo Classic solo win, and an impressive performance at In Flanders Fields, where teammate Jasper Philipsen took victory, this does appear to be the very best Van der Poel, and not the rider we saw get dropped on the Poggio at Milan-San Remo.

He also has the benefit of knowing that an early crash in the race and sickness in the build-up last year impacted his shape, but he's been able to relax in Spain ahead of Sunday's race, so he should arrive at 100% and be raring to go.

Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Wout van Aert and the Tour of Flanders, an eternal goal that he may never get to in the face of the likes of Van der Poel and Pogačar, but one that he and Visma-Lease a Bike will continue to pursue.

Despite showing great form in recent weeks, at Milan-San Remo and his two warm-up races on the Flemish cobbles, In Flanders Fields and Dwars door Vlaanderen, neither ended in a victory, and on both occasions, one in a duo with Van der Poel and one on his own, he ended up getting caught in the final kilometres.

The second at Dwars was more heartbreaking, as it was his third bad day there in a row – crashing brutally in 2024, losing an unlosable Visma three-against-one to Neilson Powless in 2025, and getting caught and passed by Filippo Ganna in the final kilometre in 2026.

"It's cursed here," he said at the finish.

But while another defeat could dampen his morale, don't forget that he attacked away with 40km to go and looked every bit the Van Aert of old, before his crash-ruined 2024, and seems to be peaking just in time for the big appointment at Flanders.

Of course, he's been no match for Pogčar and Van der Poel in recent seasons, getting dropped on the key climbs and fighting to finish fourth in the most recent edition. But this is the best he has looked in a while, and perhaps the tactical battle between the winners of the past four editions could benefit the Visma man.

He also has his former Classics right-hand man Christophe Laporte back in support, after illness kept him out of De Ronde last year, and Visma have impressed as a whole this spring. However, they would need to produce something really special on Sunday to do it.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)

Last year's runner-up, Mads Pedersen, remains one of the superstars able to compete with Pogačar and Van der Poel over the toughest cobbled terrains, but he has only just returned from two fractures at Milan-San Remo; his standing ahead of Flanders is slightly lower.

He's still been impressive since he came back, finishing fourth in San Remo, ninth at E3 and 10th at Dwars door Vlaanderen. He hasn't yet been the world-beating Pedersen we saw beat Van der Poel in a sprint at Gent-Wevelgem in 2024 and ride 70km solo to defend that title a year ago in the lead-up to Flanders.

It's his usual incredible sprint after a hard day, and some of that punchy accelerating power that he said he is missing after Dwars, but that isn't to say he won't still be in the mix when the big favourites start kicking things off fully on the climbs.

He's also anticipated before at Flanders, knowing that getting ahead of Pogačar and Van der Poel can sometimes be the best way to challenge them. Expect the Dane to still be well among the top five on Sunday, but he may be missing the few percentage points required to really go for victory – perhaps that will return to him fully at Paris-Roubaix a week later.

Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Remco Evenepoel is the surprise package for Sunday's Monument, as he is finally making his debut and taking on his home nation's most prestigious race. Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe kept it secret for almost three months but told the world it was indeed no April Fool's joke that he would be participating, announcing the news on the morning of Dwars door Vlaanderen.

When it comes to actually competing, few riders can be considered a top favourite without having fully experienced the cobbles of Flanders first; even Pogačar had to get a lesson from Van der Poel in his first edition, finishing fourth almost impossibly from a two-up sprint.

Evenepoel adds a different element to how things should be raced on Sunday, as he, like Pogačar, is a much lighter climber than the Classics specialists of Van der Poel and Van Aert. He may be lacking in the positioning front, and of course, crashes are very possible on the hectic, dangerous Flanders course, but Red Bull have decided it's a risk worth taking.

He's long been a better one-day racer than stage race, too, shown in his Olympic and World road race titles, and he's got every bit of the punch and absolute power that should, in theory, make him a more than capable Flanders contender.

It's certainly going to be exciting seeing how Evenepoel changes the racing dynamic, if at all. But those riders listed above definitely won't want to let him get away up the road solo at any point, nor will they want him to be leading a chasing effort. It's going to be a debut to remember, for sure, good or bad.

The chasing pack

The difficulty of a course like Flanders makes it hard to imagine anyone but the absolute best riders can really contend for victory, but surprises aren't impossible, and we've seen several attacks either come unstuck or just survive in the warm-up races, so those behind will believe.

But Flanders is a different beast entirely, both in the unrelenting difficulty of its 280 kilometres and in the quality of the startlist. With both Pogačar and Van der Poel starting, it reduces the number of riders who can win significantly, so here are some dark horse contenders who could challenge the top five, or indeed the podium.

Alec Segaert has impressed massively since joining Bahrain Victorious and has proved to be a real threat as a late attacker, almost winning In Flanders Fields and managing to hold off those behind to take victory at the GP de Denain.

Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Inermarché) and Paul Magnier (Soudal-QuickStep) represent the unlikely potentials for a sprint final, and both have shown signs that they may one day be Flanders contenders. But bad legs and bad luck have followed the pair of them, so a top result on Sunday would be a shock.

Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility) has been one of the most consistent riders in the spring and continues to improve, finishing fifth at E3 and ninth at In Flanders Fields. The climbs on Sunday may be a stretch too far for him, though.

In a similar vein, it would be a huge surprise not to see Matteo Trentin towards the front in the final, as the experienced Tudor leader has shown his expert knowledge and ever-present form is enough to compete just a step behind the top guys.

Returning to their status as a pure Classics team, Soudal-QuickStep also have the dual threat of Jasper Stuyven and Dylan van Baarle to try and follow or anticipate the top favourites' attacks, while Magnier waits in the wings, but the Belgian squad still look a distance from their previous glories of the 2000s and 2010s.

Finally, two other former winners are taking the start. Neither Kasper Asgreen (EF Education-EasyPost) nor Alberto Bettiol (XDS Astana) look like they will threaten for a second victory in Oudenaarde on Sunday, though.

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