The third week of the Giro d'Italia is packed full of climbing, and four tough mountain stages, in what is being touted by many as 'the real Giro'. The GC has been taking shape the last two weeks, but the real battle is going to take place in the final week.
After a rest day on Monday, there's no easing into the final week, with Tuesday's stage 16 offering up an ultra challenging parcours, featuring 4,700m of elevation, four climbs – three of which are category 1 – and a summit finish on the San Valentino climb, which features gradients of up to 14%.
There are plenty more days for the GC to explode, but signs are pointing to many teams wanting to take things up early, rather than leaving attacks to later in the week, when legs will be more tired. With its repeated climbs, stage 16 looks like a perfect opportunity for aggressive riders and teams to make things hard.
The route
The 203km stage starts in Piazzola sul Brenta, and the first 60km is not quite flat, instead quite gradually rising for the first part of the race. The likelihood is that this opening section will be raced pretty flat out, with a big fight for the breakaway, but they won't be let go easily as the GC teams will have to essentially 'approve' whichever group goes away, to make sure it's not too threatening.
This means that the race could very well hit the first climb with no break established yet. The Cat. 2 Carbonare climb kicks off proceedings with 12.9km of uphill at an average 4.9% gradient, though some ramps go up to 10%.
If a break hasn't gone already, it could go here, but the flip side of a break going so late is that they're often not given a lot of time, as the GC teams find it harder to ease off and let the gap go on climbs, compared to the flat.
From the top of the Carbonare, there's a fairly long descent, and then the road goes straight up again, this time the 10km, 7.5% Candriai. This is category 1, because it's steep, and previous stages have told us that being far from the finish doesn't mean riders won't attack a climb like this – lots of teams are keen to make things difficult early, if not to get away, then at least to tire their rivals.
Anyone finding this climb hard will be in trouble though, because there are still two category 1 climbs to go after it. When they descend from Candriai, there's a little uphill again where there's an intermediate sprint, and then they go down to the foot of the penultimate climb, the Santa Barbara.
This climb is possibly slightly harder than the final one because it goes steadily up, rather than in steps as the final one does. It's 12.6km in length with an average gradient of 8.3%, with some steeper ramps in the first half, and a steep 16km descent to follow.
Then there's no respite, just straight into the final climb up to San Valentino. There are three distinct 'steps' to the 18km climb, so there are some moments where it lets up briefly, but in general it's a long and steep climb, with some ramps over 14%.
There's also an added complication on the climb, as the day's Red Bull Kilometre, and its associated bonus seconds, is placed 6km up the climb, so if the breakaway isn't ahead, there will be a big fight for that, and then still 12km more to climb.
Breakaway or GC?
The question is whether this will be a stage for the breakaway or the GC riders to win, and the evidence so far is pointing towards a possible GC winner. The breakaway battles have been taking a long time to resolve in this race, as there are some GC riders that keep attacking, and that ultimately harms the break's chances of getting a good gap. If they go in the first 60km, the peloton can ease up and let the gap go to five minutes, but once the climbs start, the peloton has to pace.
Even if a break does get a good gap, it has to be a strong one to survive, and there are not that many great climbers who are not otherwise engaged in team support in this race. So it's hard to imagine a group strong enough to survive, and given enough time.
Instead, it seems likely that this will be a GC day, with one of the overall contenders taking the stage win, and – they'll hope – some time on their rivals. On the flip side, the tough, relentless series of climbs mean that someone is sure to crack and lose some times, with stage 16 offering the hardest mountains challenge yet.
Plus, of course, even if a break did survive to the line, the GC riders will still battle out on these steep climbs, even if it's just for time and not the stage win.
The final climb will be decisive, in that it will decide the winner, but don't be surprised to see things break up early. Maybe a team will pace on the first two climbs to make things hard, and then attacks could certainly start as early as the Santa Barbara. Furthemore, since there's no flat between the two final climbs, a group that goes over the top of the penultimate ascent can definitely survive to the finish.
Contenders
Isaac del Toro will face a big test on stage 16 (Image credit: Getty Images)
A lot of the narratives that have been brewing and bubbling in this race look set to boil over in the final week, and Tuesday's stage could be the start of some explosive storylines. The biggest test, by far, will be for leader Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) who has only ridden stages like this once before, in last year's Vuelta a España. There's very little information to work out how well he can perform over repeated big climbs, so tomorrow should reveal a lot. What's more, how UAE race should give more insight into their strategy around Del Toro and pre-race leader Juan Ayuso.
If they mess around tactically, though, UAE could definitely be attacked, and second overall Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) looks like a contender to do that. He's ridden a lowkey race so far but is clearly on good form and likes it when it's hard.
If we're wondering which teams might be aggressive, Ineos Grenadiers are an obvious option – they've been digging in all week, and have made it clear that they're searching for more than a 5th to 10th finish. Their strategy so far has been to take it up early, so they may be eyeing an early stage.
As well as riders trying to move up, though, the first stage of the final week is bound to see others unravel. A lot of those who are placed in the top 10 are simply there by their following wheels, and the relentless nature of stage 16 is sure to catch some people out.
A lot of racing has already been done, and there's a lot still to come, but the cliché seems to ring true – the real Giro starts on Tuesday.
Climbs
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Passo di Santa Barbara profile(Image credit: RCS Sport/Giro d'Italia)
San Valentino profile(Image credit: RCS Sport/Giro d'Italia)
Matilda is an NCTJ-qualified journalist based in the UK who joined Cyclingnews in March 2025. Prior to that, she worked as the Racing News Editor at GCN, and extensively as a freelancer contributing to Cyclingnews, Cycling Weekly, Velo, Rouleur, Escape Collective, Red Bull and more. She has reported from many of the biggest events on the calendar, including the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France Femmes, Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. She has particular experience and expertise in women's cycling, and women's sport in general. She is a graduate of modern languages and sports journalism.
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