The third and final week of the 2024 Giro d’Italia is packed with mountain stages, with the risk of worsening weather expected to make the ride to Rome even more arduous and tiring.
The riders could face rain on every stage in the north of Italy, with the early Italian summer only likely to return for the final stage around Rome on Sunday.
Several days of bad weather could turn the final week into a huge challenge, even for race leader Tadej Pogačar and his UAE Team Emirates squad. The bad weather will also add an extra factor in the battle for the podium places and make the final stages a real battle of survival for the sprinters and domestiques in the gruppetto.
Italian weather forecasts for Tuesday predict ‘precipitazioni diffuse, localmente abbondanti e persistenti’ – ‘widespread rain, locally heavy and persistent, with ‘carattere di rovescio o temporali’ – ‘downpours or thunderstorms.’ Later in the week the weather should improve but will remain variable, with some sun but also rain and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons.
The riders enjoyed a cool but dry rest day in Livigno, riding at an altitude of 1900 metres, with views of the snow on the surrounding mountains. They, however, were concerned about the bad weather expected to arrive, with a risk of snow on Tuesday and temperature of between zero and four degrees centigrade for the start of the stage.
On Monday race organisers RCS Sport, the UCI race commissaries, and team rider’s association representatives held a meeting to decide on how to protect the rider’s health without overly disrupting the race.
The biggest problem being the risk associated with racing in the cold rain and then descending the Umbrail Pass into Switzerland in temperatures close to zero. The Umbrail Pass climbs to an altitude of 2,498 metres and then descends rapidly for 18km, with a further 70km of descending valley roads all the way to Bolzano. The perceived temperature in the saddle would be several degrees centigrade below zero.
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Moving the start of the stage to after the Umbrail Pass and so reducing the stage to around 130km, with the climb to the finish in Val Gardena could be a solution.
However it would significantly change the stage and mean the Umbrail Pass no longer awards the Cima Coppi to the first rider over the top of the highest climb of the race. The Umbrail Pass was last week announced as a replacement for the Stelvio, which was removed due to the risk of avalanches.
RCS Sport hates disrupting the race and upsetting local authorities and fans already out along the stage route. They allegedly lobbied the riders and teams to race the stage with the Umbrail Pass, despite a meeting concerning the UCI’s Extreme Weather Protocol.
Plans and caveats
On Monday afternoon, RCS Sport announced that the stage would go on as planned ‘If weather conditions are deemed normal’. They allowed extra team vehicles in the race convoy and said race commissaire cars could also hand out clothing.
A special ‘parking zone’ will be created at the summit of the Umbrail Pass, after 50km of the stage, and the stage could be neutralised for three minutes to allow riders to change clothing.
They only added a short caveat to that, saying “In the event of extreme weather conditions, the stage will be neutralised up to a place where the safety conditions are met.”
That apparently left the riders concerned about being obliged to ride the stage.
“It's uncertain how the race will go because of the Stelvio and the weather. I have no idea what's going on but first, we need to survive as a team,” Pogačar said on Monday afternoon.
Profile for stage 16 of the 2024 Giro d'Italia(Image credit: RCS Sport)
Monte Pana, the finishing climb(Image credit: RCS Sport)
Stage 16 could change the podium places around Pogačar, even if the Umbrail Pass did end up being removed. It would reduce the stage from the original 206 km to around 120 km and significantly reduce the amount of vertical climbing from the 4,350 metres expected. It would also change the stage and make it a fast valley ride and then a race into the Dolomites and up to Santa Cristina Val Gardena.
The final 35km would still be packed with climbing. The riders face the 23.4 km Passo Pinei, which includes three different gradients on three different sections. After a small descent, the road kicks-up again for the 7.6km to the finish on the Monte Pana climb. It has an average gradient of 6.1% but a section at 15% and the final two kilometres at 11.8% via a series of hairpins.
There is no question that it will be a hard final after what could be a terrible day in extreme weather conditions.
Stage 16 Sprints
Intermediate sprint, km. 161.4
Intergiro bonus sprint, km. 177.7
Time bonus sprint, km. 184.8
Stage 16 Mountains
Giogo di Santa Maria/Umbrailpass (Cima Coppi), km. 50.2 - 16.7km at 7.1%, max 15%
Passo Pinei (cat. 1), km. 194 - 23.4km at 4.7%, max 15%
Finish: Monte Pana (cat. 2), km. 206 - 7.6km at 6.1%, max 15%
Stephen is one of the most experienced members of the Cyclingnews team, having reported on professional cycling since 1994. Before becoming Editor-at-large, he was Head of News at Cyclingnews. He has previously worked for Shift Active Media, Reuters and Cycling Weekly. He is a member of the Board of the Association Internationale des Journalistes du Cyclisme (AIJC).
