The light is fading on the 2022 road season and with the falling of the leaves, the hopes of at least two teams are being stripped bare as Israel-Premier Tech and Lotto Soudal appear to be stuck in the relegation zone in the UCI's 2023 WorldTour sporting criteria.
We have previously posted an explanation of how the UCI points system works and followed the rise and fall of the 22 teams who aspire to be in the sport's top tier for the next three seasons. Now, it's time to follow what comes next for the first teams to be relegated from the UCI WorldTour in this new scheme.
Unlike football, where relegated teams get 'parachute payments' from broadcast revenue, there are no such benefits in the sponsor-driven realm of professional cycling. Instead, relegated teams are at risk of being gutted of their riders and could see sponsors and financiers depart as teams' futures fade.
Already the chaos of the promotion/relegation system has cost Lotto Soudal. Their manager John Lelangue has taken his own kind of parachute out of the team and into the organisation of Tour de Pologne, and in a response to criticism from former manager Marc Sergeant, appeared to blame his predecessor for creating the holes that sunk the ship.
There are two options for relegated teams - drop down to ProTeam status and hope to take advantage of UCI rules that award automatic invitations or fold. The top two ProTeams of 2022 will be automatically invited to major one-day WorldTour races while only the top ProTeam will get a bid for the Grand Tours.
Israel Premier-Tech aren't in a position to earn automatic Grand Tour invitations as the best ProTeam, even if they opted to remain on the second tier. The team may be looking for a third option as owner Sylvan Adams threatened to take legal action against the UCI to pressure them expanding the WorldTour from its 18-team limit. Failing that, he's suggested he may pull his money out of the sport altogether.
There could be a fourth option if one of the top 18 teams fail to meet other criteria - financial, ethical, organisational and administrative - that the UCI require to gain a WorldTour licence.
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Arkéa-Samsic, already the target of OCLAESP raids in 2020, now risk losing the points earned by Nairo Quintana in the Tour de France if the Colombian's CAS case loses and his disqualification for tramadol positives is upheld. They have enough points without Quintana, and even with the case, they will still most likely meet the ethical criteria.
There have been some concerns over Astana Qazaqstan's future after the team struggled to pay riders on time and faced an investigation in Luxembourg in March. But Cyclingnews understands the team's budget, while small, will keep them in the WorldTour, but the Licencing Commission will be looking closely at their finances. They could pick up Quintana as an easy points win for the coming seasons.
If all goes as planned, and the UCI do not back down on keeping the 2023-2025 WorldTour to 18 teams, and it's hardly likely one of the top 18 teams will fail to meet the UCI criteria. So, it is almost certain that the two teams relegated will be Lotto Soudal and Israel-Premier Tech.
On top of a heavy October racing schedule, those riders will be keeping their agents busy as they look to take advantage of clauses in their contracts that allow them to leave if their team loses WorldTour status. The teams will be kept busy negotiating with agents, sponsors and also Grand Tour organisers who could reassure team backers by promising wildcard invitations for next year.
Israel-Premier Tech and Lotto Soudal in theory could be gutted on the transfer market but in reality, with smaller teams on tight budgets and bigger teams almost entirely full with riders on multi-year contracts movement opportunities are very limited.
Israel-Premier Tech are more likely to get gutted by transfers, although their top scorers are toward the end of their careers. Jakob Fuglsang hinted at retirement if the team is relegated, while sprinter Giacomo Nizzolo - who finds himself in the same boat as last season when his then-team Qhubeka-NextHash came unraveled - will be a valuable prospect on the market. Michael Woods and Simon Clarke, both 36, still have more to give and could be picked up on a bargain, however teams might be more interested in signing an up-and-coming rider like Corbin Strong or Jenthe Biermans.
Lotto Soudal are less likely to see a mass exodus. Philippe Gilbert is already retiring, and they have a solid roster if they can keep the band together as a ProTeam. Beyond Arnaud De Lie, Victor Campenaerts and Caleb Ewan, the rest of the roster might struggle to wedge themselves onto another WorldTeam's roster and, with automatic invitations likely for 2023, would be more likely to stay put.
While the relegation points might be nearly wrapped up, the back-room wheeling and dealing is far from over. Transfer season may well extend into January as riders fight to get onto WorldTeams with budgets that are already tied up.
2020-2022 Team Ranking changes for 3 October, 2022
This week there were six one-day races and the CRO Race contributing to the 2022 Team Rankings which, in turn, contribute to the 2020-2022 Team Rankings that will determine which 18 teams meet the UCI's sporting criteria to remain in the WorldTour through 2025.
Cofidis was the big winner this week, with two victories and 426 more points. Bryan Coquard's surprise victory over Arnaud Démare and Axel Zingle's sprint victory in the Famenne Ardenne Classic along with Max Walscheid's podium in the Sparkassen Münsterland Giro lifted the team three places in the three-year rankings. They overcame the effects of the UCI Road World Championships that dropped them to 18th and narrowly nudged BikeExchange-Jayco, EF Education-EasyPost and Arkéa-Samsic down one notch each.
BikeExchange-Jayco's week paled in comparison with the previous, and the team only managed to rake in 79 points. EF Education-EasyPost benefitted from sending a strong team to the Italian one-day races, where the talented young Andrea Piccolo picked up third in Coppa Agostoni and Rigoberto Uran was fifth in Giro dell'Emilia. Arkéa-Samsic packed on 200 more points by stacking their riders in the top of the results sheet in the Famenne Ardennes Classic and Tour Vendée.
The 200 points that Arkéa-Samsic added and the 224 points won by EF-EasyPost offset the danger of Cofidis' upward movement, and although the four teams plus Movistar in 13th are separated by just over 300 points, the gap between 18th place and 19th-placed Lotto Soudal is all but unassailable now.
Each week the gap keeps expanding, and Lotto Soudal have over 1100 points to make up on Arkéa-Samsic to climb out of the relegation zone, while Israel-Premier Tech have almost 1900 points to make up.
It's still possible, but not plausible, that either team could move up. Movistar gained 553 points this week thanks to Enric Mas' win in Giro dell'Emilia, where Alejandro Valverde also landed in fourth. Valverde added a second place in Coppa Agostoni with Mas in ninth.
The upcoming Il Lombardia is a WorldTour 'Tier 3' race, the highest of the one-day WorldTour races on par with the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. The win is worth 500 points, 400 for second and 325 for third.
Laura Weislo is a Cyclingnews veteran of 20 years. Having joined in 2006, Laura extensively covered the Operacion Puerto doping scandal, the years-long conflict between the UCI and the Tour de France organisers ASO over the creation of the WorldTour, and the downfall of Lance Armstrong and his lifetime ban for doping. As Managing Editor, Laura coordinates coverage for North American events and global news.
