A day for the breakaway specialists before week three kicks off? – Giro d'Italia stage 15 preview

The theme of the second week of the Giro d'Italia is that, when it comes to the GC fight, most riders are just waiting for the third week. All of the hardest climbing is packed into the final six stages, and there's a sense that anything that's happened so far could be easily ripped up once the race hits the mountains. 

As a result, many of those last-week stages are being pencilled in as GC days, meaning that the breakaway specialists, who have not been rewarded many times so far in this race, are searching out chances to go for the win.

The next opportunity could come on Sunday as stage 15 should, in theory, offer a day for the breakaway, though the events of stage 14 have slightly complicated things – more on that later.

Starting in Fiume Veneto, the first 100km of the race is largely flat, peppered by just one short, sharp climb after 44km, before the race tackles the Monte Grappa climb, a long and challenging ascent in the Venetian Prealps.

This 25km climb featured twice on the penultimate stage of last year's Giro d'Italia, won by Tadej Pogačar, but this year the race will go up the slightly easier side, with an average gradient of 5.7%, or 6.4% in the last 8km. It's a long and leg-sapping climb, but peaks out 90km, so in theory it won't be decisive – but that doesn't mean teams can't make it hard.

From the top of the Monte Grappa, the riders will descend back down to the valley, for about 20km of respite before the Dori climb, 16.6km effort averaging at 5.3%. The stage then finishes on the plateau, with just under 28km of undulating road between the top of the last climb and the finish line.

The flat between the two main climbs will be the decisive point for any breakaway, as they'll need to work together and hard to maintain a gap into the last climb, so a successful move would need some riders who are powerful on the flat, more so than just pure climbers. 

However, the GC riders and teams could always decide they want to contest the stage instead, and unfortunately for the breakaway specialists, the events of stage 14 might have just made it more likely that the overall contenders get involved on stage 15.

After several riders lost time on what was supposed to be a straightforward day, we could see some teams keen to strike while the iron is hot and take back time on Sunday, either on the Monte Grappa or Dori.

View from inside the peloton

Looking ahead to stage 15, we tapped up Monte Grappa local Marco Frigo for his insight on what could be an interesting day to Asiago. Frigo lives 5km from the base of the climb and has climbed the first half of the ascent "a thousand times".

The 25-year-old Italian is starting to make a name for himself as one of the breakaway specialists in the current peloton, and though much of his Giro so far has been about looking after GC leader Derek Gee, he's hoping to shine in the remainder of the race.

"I hope that the next week will be more active, also the breakaway part," he said, already looking at Sunday's stage. "I think tomorrow can be a day for the break."

However, the largely flat first 100km – with few clear places to launch a move, save a 1km, cat.4 climb – could swing things in favour of the peloton, if a move goes late and struggles to build up a good gap.

"We never know because we saw the other day that was maybe for the break, and then it came back," Frigo said, referring to stage 11.

"I think tomorrow it could take a long time for the breakaway to form, and then there's no time for the breakaway to go to the end. So we have to pay attention. I would like to be there if it's a breakaway day, but we'll see."

Of course, the strength of the breakaway will matter, especially on a parcours as tough as the one stage 15 is offering up. But more than that, Frigo said, the composition and cooperation of the group will matter, and there are a few riders more likely to bring a move to the finish. 

"For sure, when you see [Luke] Plapp in a breakaway, [Mattia] Cattaneo, those kind of guys, you know they are there and they will pull, and they're not there just to be smart and play the game," he said.

"OK, when you're in the break you do have to play the game, but you have to do it in a way that means you can bring the break to the line. They are all good riders and they are strong, in the flat they pull a lot, so those kind of riders. You don't want them to be in the break because then it's a big fight against them, but it's always good to have them to bring the breakaway to the end."

With sparingly few chances for the breakaway left in this race, the specialists like Frigo will be motivated and alert on Sunday morning, but this Giro hasn't stuck to the playbook so far, and any team could rip the script up once more tomorrow.

Climbs

Image 1 of 2

• Muro di Ca' del Poggio (cat. 4), km. 45
• Monte Grappa (cat. 1), km. 123.4 (25km, avg. 5.8%, max 11%)
• Dori (cat. 2), km. 186.5 (16.3km, avg. 5.5% max 9%)

Sprints

• Sprint 1 - San Martino Colle Umberto, km. 29.6
• Sprint 2 - Possagno, km. 89.8
• Time bonus sprint - Enego, km. 185.8