Super talents and former winners, but can anyone really challenge Tadej Pogačar? – Analysing the men's favourites for Strade Bianche 2026

With the Classics season now underway, Strade Bianche is the next big appointment for the stars of the men's WorldTour, with the white gravel roads of Tuscany and a stunning finale into Siena set to decide one of the calendar's most thrilling races on Saturday.

It brings with it the 2026 debut of a certain Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), a three-time winner, defending champion, and World Champion, who will look to open his account with another dominant performance.

While he has won three of the last four editions with long solo moves – only missing out in 2023 as he opted to prepare for Paris-Nice instead of racing at Strade – Pogačar hasn't gone unchallenged, and that will again be the case this season.

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Saturday's race features a stacked start list, with three other former winners taking the start and a whole host of the peloton's top climbers there to challenge his spot at the top.

The route has been slightly softened with 14km and two gravel sectors taken out, but the hardest parts remain unchanged, and the San Martino in Grania, Monte Sante Marie, Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe sectors will again be decisive.

What's guaranteed is around five hours of total chaos, punctures, crashes and high octane attacks on some of the most breathtaking roads in the sport, with the steep climb up the Via Santa Caterina and Siena's Piazza del Campo certain to welcome another worthy winner.

With that in mind, we've taken a look through the top contenders and picked the most likely riders to challenge Pogačar's dominance, from established stars to young guns looking to impress on debut. Here are Cyclingnews' favourites for the men's 2026 Strade Bianche.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Tadej Pogačar retains his status as the favourite again this season, even in his first race of the season. A fourth win would see him stand alone as the rider with the most Strade Bianche wins ahead of Fabian Cancellara, which looks a likely conclusion from Saturday's race.

Putting up ridiculous numbers across his three wins, Pogačar has ridden the last 19km, 81km and 50km alone during those triumphs, often lighting up the racing on the five-star Monte Sante Marie sector and rarely being matched.

Pogačar does know the risks of this race, however, crashing before his victory in 2022 and then hitting the deck at high speed in last year's race, which he had to chase back from before dropping Tom Pidcock to take victory.

Aside from his own strength, the Slovenian will have the help of some very powerful teammates, even in the absence of last year's third-place finisher, Tim Wellens, with rising Mexican star Isaac del Toro the obvious standout after winning the recent UAE Tour.

Del Toro won the third-most races of any male rider in 2025, many of those at one-day races, and what he lacks in experience, he more than makes up for in power. If anything were to befall UAE's main leader, the Mexican would be expected to step up as the second favourite for victory.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5)

No one has come as close to Pogačar during his three wins as Tom Pidcock did last season, with the multi-discipline star lasting until the final lap up Pinzuto, excelling on the gravel sectors, uphill and downhill, and proving exactly why he, too, is a former winner.

Pidcock has an impressive record in his four appearances, never finishing outside the top five, and he'll be looking to maintain that record on Saturday and potentially challenge the World Champion again.

The Brit has impressed already in his first races this season, winning a stage in Andalucia, taking second on the gravel roads at Clásica Jaén, but he did struggle in the cold at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad last Saturday, so he'll be happy to see a milder forecast for Tuscany.

Following a full-strength Pogačar attack still looks unlikely for the Brit, and anyone for that matter, but if he can get ahead of him on one of the downhill sectors with his technical advantage, there could be a route to a second victory for Pidcock – but it will take his absolute best.

Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Perhaps the most anticipated starter at this year's Strade Bianche is another former winner, Wout van Aert, who will be racing the Italian Classic for the first time since 2021 and looking to add to his 2019 victory.

Van Aert has been back to Siena with success since winning a thrilling gravel stage of the Giro d'Italia last season, ahead of Del Toro and his skills as one of the top technical and versatile riders will immediately place him among the favourites.

Though luck has not been on his side in recent months, with suffering a fractured ankle during a January cyclo-cross race and a stomach bug forcing him to push his road start back to Tuesday's Ename Samyn Classic. Even then, it wasn't the comeback return he'd wanted, with a late puncture and double puncture continuing this period of poor fortune.

What is on his side, however, is that he was the only rider to drop Pogačar uphill at any point last season, surging away from him on Montmartre to win the last stage of the Tour de France. So if anyone can live with Pogačar, perhaps it's the star rider who hasn't appeared in any of his victories here.

He'll have Matteo Jorgenson by his side, who is another contender for a top 10 finish, and Visma will be praying that he gets a clean run at the key climbs, so they can really tell where Van Aert is at.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)

No one in cycling is having more pressure piled on their shoulders than Paul Seixas at the moment, with the 19-year-old French super talent going from strength to strength in his first few races this season, and the expectation rising.

After Seixas beat Juan Ayuso and João Almeida on the queen stage at the Volta ao Algarve, everyone was watching, but when he decimated a stacked field at the Faun Ardèche Classic in Pogačar-esque fashion, he sent all of France into a frenzy.

Long-standing French team boss Marc Madiot labelled him as "the chosen one" and the "Messiah" after his performance, but the man he will be trying to beat as he looks to reach his full potential will be the man he emulated with his long solo effort last weekend.

Pogačar comes face to face with Seixas at Strade Bianche, and there is rising hope that he can follow the violent bursts of the World Champion. History says even the best talents don't perform overly well over Strade Bianche's sterrati – Pogačar finished 30th and 13th in his two appearances – but if Seixas is the talent he's promised, perhaps he can challenge the podium at the first attempt.

He's got all the talent and skills required to do so, along with a background in cyclo-cross, but don't be too surprised if the inexperience shows on Saturday, as Strade Bianche is a whole different beast to Faun Ardèche and the like.

Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost)

Ben Healy has established himself as one of the top riders in the peloton these past two years, as both a breakaway hunter and a man for any hilly Classic, including Strade Bianche.

Fourth last year, Healy's punchy skills and time trialling ability make him a worthy candidate to get away on an uphill section of gravel and stay away, so expect similar from him on Saturday.

The 25-year-old raced in France last weekend without any results to shout home about, but he would've been targeting the likes of Strade as the place to peak.

Anticipation is almost always the name of the game for Healy, so expect an early move from him over the white roads, and good luck to anyone trying to chase him down.

Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers)

Returning to the Tuscan race for the first time since his memorable podium in 2021, Egan Bernal is not a rider to discount when it comes to the top contenders for Strade Bianche.

An expert over the gravel, the former Tour de France and Giro d'Italia winner has long been underrated as a one-day racer, and he looks set to feature as one of Saturday's top riders, even against the likes of Pogačar and Pidcock.

Bernal has started the season in red-hot form, retaining his Colombian national road race title, then finishing seventh at Faun Ardèche. He will be looking to repeat what he managed in that thrilling edition four years ago, where the top 10 was littered with stars: Van der Poel, Alaphilippe, Van Aert, Pidcock, and Pogačar.

Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious)

Pello Bilbao is another consistent performer at Strade Bianche, perhaps not one to be looked at as a potential winner, but he's always a podium threat. Tentth, fifth, seventh and fifth read his four finishes in Siena, so he certainly knows how to race it.

Bahrain Victorious' whole team is actually filled with top talent for this race, with Matej Mohorič – twice a top six finisher and former Gravel World Champion – also lining up, and one of their new signings for 2026, Attila Valter, who has finished in the top five on two occasions.

Between the three riders, they could have the largest number in a leading group or chase group that forms once the racing inevitably breaks apart, and this could be the best path to scoring a podium. So watch out for their blue jerseys, but Bilbao in particular.

Honourable mentions

When it comes to the riders sitting just beneath the top favourites, Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Intermarché) looks a great option for his third top 10 finish at Strade after showing signs of his previous best form at the recent UAE Tour

Former Gravel World Champion Gianni Vermeersch looks like Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's best option, and in the absence of Mathieu van der Poel, perhaps Tibor Del Grosso can bring Alpecin-Premier Tech a top result on his debut.

Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United) is among the several puncheurs hoping to survive the toughest sectors in the middle, as will Pogačar's young teammate Jan Christen and top Norwegian racer, Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility).

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