'The Giro d'Italia always produces surprises' – Vincenzo Nibali warns top 2026 contender Jonas Vingegaard about Grand Tour's innate unpredictability

Double Giro d'Italia winner Vincenzo Nibali has warned lead 2026 contender Jonas Vingegaard that he cannot let his guard down for a second when it comes to trying to conquer the first Grand Tour of this season.

The 29-year-old Visma-Lease a Bike racer is widely viewed as the top candidate for overall victory in Rome on May 31. However, he has never ridden the Giro d'Italia before, and Nibali, who rode 11 Giros before retiring at the end of 2022, has offered the Dane a few sage words of advice about what to expect.

"Nothing is ever straightforward at the Giro," Nibali told La Gazzetta dello Sport this week, "there are always surprises."

Nibali mentioned last year's dramatic reversal of fortunes on the final weekend of the Giro as a case in point, where Vingegaard's former teammate Simon Yates managed to wrest the pink jersey from Isaac del Toro on the very last mountain stage with its ascent of the Colle delle Finestre. The Finestre was the same ascent, too, where Chris Froome surprisingly overturned Simon Yates' own hold on the maglia rosa back in 2018 – again, very close to the finish.

With that unpredictability in mind, as well as Vingegaard's later commitment to riding the Tour, Nibali said the logical thing for the Dane to do would be "to impact as early as possible and then try to control the race."

"Not in the medium mountain stages in the first week, but somewhere like the Blockhaus [on stage 7]."

"He'll want to get a good difference from that point, partly because there's always the risk of dangerous breakaways in the Giro, and partly so his team can control things with a good margin on their rivals."

"There's also the risk of bad weather in the Giro, too, so that helps. Plus, he's got the Tour de France to think about as well, so he can take things in a more measured way if he's got that advantage."

Given that expected emphasis on controlling the race, Nibali did not predict Vingegaard to show off the same kind of fireworks as with Tadej Pogačar in 2024, when, after the GC race developed into a mere formality, the Slovenian repeatedly launched himself off in search of yet more stage wins, eventually amassing six.

He warned, however, that even with a solid advantage, Vingegaard could not afford to sleep on his laurels, given how the third week was always the most important in Grand Tours.

“Last year in the final week of the Vuelta a España," – which Nibali also won, back in 2010 – "you could see how everybody felt the fatigue. And at the Giro, nothing is ever decided until the very end."

Potential Giro GC heavyweights of the calibre of João Almeida, Richard Carapaz, and Mikel Landa have all announced this week that they won't be starting.

Perhaps with that in mind, Nibali was asked about the chances of his compatriot Guilio Pellizzari, sixth in the 2025 Giro, and 2021 winner Egan Bernal as two potential top challengers.

"Looking at the Tour of the Alps," – where Bernal finished second – "it's clear Bernal's building up well, and then there's [ToTA winner] Pellizzari," Nibali observed.

"He finally got a win for Italy there. The previous one was mine [in 2013], so there's been a gap.

"But he took a big step forward in the Vuelta last year, with that stage win in the last week, and he's slowly growing. I think he has to go for a top three in the Giro this year."

Pellizzari can also be motivated by the fact that the Giro is always a very unpredictable event, Nibali underlined to Gazzetta.

“The Giro is also where new stars are born. We have seen it many times in recent years. And even when there is a clear favourite going in, the Giro is a race where things change at the drop of a hat.”

Who will challenge Jonas Vingegaard at this year's Giro d'Italia? Subscribe to Cyclingnews for unlimited access to our coverage of the Corsa Rosa. Enjoy unrivalled reporting from our team of journalists on the ground, including breaking news, analysis, and more, from every stage as it happens, plus access to the Cyclingnews app to follow the action on the go! Find out more.