The Pogačar followers, the fast finishers and the outsiders – Analysing the Milan-San Remo contenders

Milan-San Remo was once a wide-open race, with a host of contenders from bulky sprinters to Grand Tour climbers.

The list of favourites for the 2026 edition is looking a little narrower after Tadej Pogačar's race-upending tactics from 12 months ago.

Whereas the race once boiled down to the question of who could make it over the Poggio, the ticket to the victory lottery on the Via Roma now lies on the rear wheel of Pogačar on the Cipressa.

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Who can dream of following the Slovenian when the expected fireworks surely materialise? Who are the fastest finishers if the World Champion and the defending champion Mathieu van der Poel can't quite blow the race to pieces with their attacks? And who are the dark horses slipping under the radar?

Here, Cyclingnews dives into the contenders for Saturday's Milan-San Remo.

Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Where else to start than with the World Champion? Tadej Pogačar may be yet to crack Milan-San Remo but he has bent the shape of the race, so much so that the 2026 edition essentially revolves around him.

After a couple of years of trying to generally intensify the race, the 2025 edition was a landmark as Pogačar brought the Cipressa, so long dormant as a decisive point of the race, truly into play. Now it’s not a question of whether Pogačar will play his cards and light it up on the Cipressa, but whether he’ll have anyone on his wheel at the top. Two managed it 12 months ago, but Pogačar is another year wiser, and seemingly still getting stronger.

The Tour of Flanders offers something of a clue here. He dominated on his debut in 2022 but was undone at the last, then returned to conquer it the following year. He is clearly similarly hell-bent on winning Milan-San Remo, and there’s an even greater sense of momentum after finishing fifth, fourth, third, and third. We’ve almost become anaesthetised to Pogačar’s history-making, and it almost feels like a solo from the Cipressa to land a fourth of the five Monuments is the next logical step in this story.

There are many factors at play, though. For starters, Pogačar will need his team to be better than the disorganised lead-outs they’ve mustered on the Cipressa in the past two years, and the absence of Tim Wellens is a blow in that respect. He’ll need a decent tailwind, which is looking likely. And he’ll need Mathieu van der Poel to be slightly off his spectacular best, which is looking rather less likely after the Dutchman’s exploits at Tirreno-Adriatico this week.

Either way, Pogačar’s presence will light up the race. Milan-San Remo was already brilliant, but he’s made it even better.

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech)

Milan-San Remo may revolve around Pogačar but the man to beat is very much Mathieu van der Poel.

The Dutchman has won two of the past three editions of the race. The other one, his teammate won – a victory that was ultimately set up by Van der Poel on the Via Roma.

With eight Monuments already to his name, Van der Poel is the dominant Spring Classics rider of this generation and now, with Wout van Aert in the rear-view mirror, it’s Pogačar who is, remarkably, the biggest threat to that status. The Slovenian has nine Monuments in hand and, with two Tour of Flanders wins and an extraordinary runner-up finish at Paris-Roubaix last year, he is giving Van der Poel a hell of a lot to think about on his own turf.

But Van der Poel seems to hold all the answers. Unlike Filippo Ganna, who was hanging on for grim death in Pogačar’s Cipressa attack last year, Van der Poel had the measure of the World Champion on the longer climb, the explosiveness to give him a test on the Poggio, and the superior finishing speed to win it on the Via Roma.

That was 12 months ago, but if anything Van der Poel looks even better so far in 2026. He won the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad at a canter on his season debut, then shone at last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico with two stage wins and a number of other show-stopping moments.

He is very much the most likely winner of the race on Saturday.

Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)

It feels appropriate to lead with the three riders who went clear over the Cipressa last year. We’ve touched on the form of both Pogačar and Van der Poel and suggested they look even stronger than 12 months ago, and while Filippo Ganna hasn’t done anything quite as sensational as those two, he appears to be very much on track with his form.

At Tirreno-Adriatico, he won the opening time trial by some margin – 22 seconds over just 11.5km. Later in the race he survived the selections on stage 4, as the heaviest rider in the 13-man group that contested the finish, where Ganna looked to spring a surprise with a last-kilometre attack.

That might give us a clue as to his path to Milan-San Remo victory. Ganna does pack a strong sprint and has even contested bunch kicks, but it’s hard to see him arriving on the Via Roma in a group that doesn’t include a faster finisher, Van der Poel being the clear and obvious example. Likewise, Ganna’s heavier frame and relative lack of explosiveness mean he’ll be fighting against being dropped on the Cipressa and Poggio, rather than trying to do the dropping.

Ganna’s best hope perhaps lies towards the bottom of the Poggio descent and onto the flat. If there’s any hesitation behind, any gap he can open is a dangerous one given his time trialling prowess. Ganna knows he has a lot of work and suffering just to earn that long shot, but his passion for this shines bright and a victory would send the home crowds into delirium.

Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike)

The winner of Milan-San Remo in 2020, Wout van Aert usually starts each and every Classic as a favourite, but his status is very much dimmed this time around. Remarkably, that 2020 San Remo remains the one and only Monument title to the name of the Belgian, who, at 31, is running out of time to turn his palmarès into something more reflective of his talents.

There has been no shortage of hiccups over the past few Springs, and this one sees Van Aert still working his way towards his top shape after a disrupted winter. Van Aert broke his ankle at the turn of the year, saw his altitude training camp derailed by foul weather, and had to pass on his season debut at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad due to illness. When he did get going, he punctured out of Le Samyn and admitted to a number of mistakes at Tirreno-Adriatico, including in his positioning, which remains an important question mark ahead of the hustle and bustle of the run-in to the Cipressa on Saturday.

In perhaps the lone example of what Van Aert felt was a fair and honest reflection of his form, he was 10th at Strade Bianche two weekends ago. He will have made a step forward through Tirreno but it still seems unlikely we’ll see the Wout van Aert of old on Saturday. He has an extra two and three weeks for Flanders and Roubaix, but Milan-San Remo might just come too soon.

Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech)

If we do get a bigger group sprint on the Via Roma, then Jasper Philipsen is arguably the favourite. The Belgian has established himself as arguably the world’s top sprinters in the past few years, and he’s much more than a flat-track finisher, twice placing runner-up at Paris-Roubaix and winning Milan-San Remo itself two years ago.

When it comes to Philipsen, the key is the double act he forms with Van der Poel, and in that respect, Alpecin-Premier Tech have the perfect combination for the race. Van der Poel will invariably go on the offensive, as he did to win alone in 2023, but when he can’t get away he can always bring Philipsen into play, as was the case in 2024.

After Pogačar’s groundbreaking Cipressa attack last year, though, it would appear that the race is weighted even more towards Van der Poel this time around. The world champion’s presence has simply made a bunch sprint – already becoming rarer – an even more remote possibility. But San Remo is never a foregone conclusion, and despite some question marks over his early-season sprinting form, his searing victory on the uphill finish at Nokere Koerse on Wednesday suggested he may have come good at the right time.

Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5)

An hour before Philipsen was launching that searing sprint, Tom Pidcock was making a statement of his own over in Italy, winning Milano-Torino with a display that suggests he’s in a very good place ahead of San Remo.

The British rider looked so at ease physically and mentally as the leading candidates made their way up Superego, and his finishing attack was that perfect mix of brains and brawn. Launching just ahead of the tight bend onto the final ramp, Piddock took all the momentum to create a gap, then ripped out of the saddle and kept ramping it up as his rivals faded into the distance.

Pidcock had a breakthrough season last year with his new Pinarello Q36.5 squad, making a first Grand Tour podium, and he has made a strong impression so far in 2026, with a stage win and third overall at Ruta del Sol, and podiums at Vuelta a Murcia and Clásica Jaén. He was seventh at Strade Bianche but dropped his chain twice just as Pogačar was making his race-winning moves.

Pidcock was 15th on his debut at San Remo in 2021 and nearly triumphed in the race in 2024 with a late attack 1.2km from the finish. So he’s well suited to it, even if it will be a tricky one for him to win. His descending skills are legendary and the descent of the Poggio is a clear opportunity for him, but the real question mark will be whether he can join the band of Pogačar’s followers on the Cipressa. If he can avoid his positioning mistake of 12 months ago, his quality means it’s not a stretch to imagine him in that esteemed company. After which, who knows what could happen?

Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United)

Three riders went over the top of the Cipressa together last year but initially it was four that went clear. The forgotten man from that attack was Romain Grégoire, who couldn’t hack the pace all the way to the top, but still outdid the rest of the field in managing to follow for any time at all.

He went on to win six races in what was a breakthrough campaign and this year, having just turned 23, he looks to be moving through the gears. Fifth at Ruta del Sol was followed by victory at the Faun Drôme Classic and second spot at Trofeo Laigueglia, but it was his fourth place at a gruelling Strade Bianche that stood out.

Grégoire was always seen as a puncheur more suited to the Ardennes Classics but he’s developing into a more rounded Classics rider and will head to the cobbles of Flanders for the first time in a couple of weeks. Another year older and wiser, he’ll surely be looking to go with the Pogačar fireworks once again, and hang on a bit longer this time.

Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM)

We're getting much deeper into outsider territory here, but Tobias Lund Andresen has been the surprise package of the season so far, so why can't he spring another one on Saturday?

The 23-year-old Dane is a sprinter who's best suited to finishing fast after a series of hills, and is enjoying a bit of a breakthrough in the colours of his new team Decathlon CMA CGM. He won a stage of the Tour Down Under and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race in Australia at the start of the year, and made a strong impression at the Classics' Opening Weekend, with top 10s at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne.

A sprint victory at Tirreno-Adriatico ahead of Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Intermarché), Jasper Philipsen, and Paul Magnier (Soudal-QuickStep) confirmed his step-up in level this year and marked him as an outside threat for Milan-San Remo.

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

A bonus ball, and a rider highlighted by our resident columnist Sean Kelly (two-time San Remo winner) as the "danger man" that no one's looking at this Saturday.

Isaac del Toro has played down his own chances, insisting he'll be burning all his matches leading Pogačar out on the Cipressa, more than likely as the last man in the line before the world champ takes flight. If that all goes to plan, then the Mexican prodigy's part in the race will indeed be reduced to that of servant.

But not everything always goes to plan, and not all plans are stuck to. What if Pogačar has problems or crashes earlier in the race? Del Toro is more than good enough to step into the leadership role. And what if UAE decided to mix things up a little? A Del Toro attack could be a cunning way to put the pressure back onto Van der Poel.

It's hard to see UAE employing the dual leadership strategy but the point is that if they did, or if something happens to Pogačar, Del Toro can be a legitimate contender. His star is still on the rise, with wins at UAE Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico so far this season, plus a podium at Strade Bianche behind Pogačar. He has very much cemented himself in the world class bracket and he has viciously explosive climbing skills well suited to Milan-San Remo.

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