Who will challenge Jonas Vingegaard at the Race to the Sun? Analysing the contenders for Paris-Nice

While the Classics specialists ply their trade over in Belgium, the Grand Tour contenders are due to get their engines primed for the build-up to the Tour de France in Paris-Nice, racing 1,245 kilometres from Achères to Nice.

In his third straight year of early-season disruptions, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) is making a previously unplanned start in the Race to the Sun, having had to drop the UAE Tour from his calendar after a training crash and illness.

That makes the Danish rider the prime contender to win Paris-Nice – even if it is his first competition of the season.

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While his Tour de France rival Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) prefers to race Strade Bianche and the likes of Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Pogačar's teammate Isaac del Toro have opted for Tirreno-Adriatico, there is still a sizable list of riders lined up to challenge Vingegaard. Among these top contenders are several notable names.

The eight-day Paris-Nice route starts with an Ardennes Classics-style stage to Carrières-sous-Poissy outside of Paris, contains a 24-kilometre team time trial as a prelude to the TTT in the Tour de France in July, and three uphill finishes before an unconventional finish around Nice that completely avoids the Col d'Eze and Col des Quatre Chemins that featured in 2024 and 2025.

Still, there is enough climbing throughout the week to challenge the Paris-Nice contenders, but they might have to get a little clever about how they pick up time along the way.

On Friday, UAE Team Emirates-XRG announced that João Almeida would not be racing due to illness, Picnic-PostNL said the same about Max Poole, and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) is out with a wrist injury. Here are Cyclingnews' favourites for the 2026 Paris-Nice from the remaining start list.

Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Before Opening Weekend, Cyclingnews' news editor Patrick Fletcher suggested that Vingegaard's team have had a nightmare start to 2026, having not won until Matthew Brennan's victory in Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne. However, compared to the past two years, Visma-Lease a Bike's luck has been far better in 2026.

Consider that Vingegaard crashed in Itzulia in 2024 and suffered serious injuries that kept him out for three months before the Tour de France. In 2025, he crashed in Paris-Nice and suffered a bad concussion while in the lead of the race – an incident that again kept him out of competition for almost three months. He still finished second in the Tour both years.

Some road rash and a small bug might have forced a change of plans, but while skipping the UAE Tour is a setback, he's more than capable of winning Paris-Nice as a first outing – he won Volta ao Algarve in his opener last year – and he is likely still on track for his new goal, the Giro d'Italia, before the Tour de France.

One thing that might work against him is that Wout van Aert and Matteo Jorgenson are sticking to their schedule to race Tirreno-Adriatico, which will take away two major motors for the TTT.

However, he's set to have help from the likes of Victor Campenaerts and Edoardo Affini on that stage, even if the team figures to be lighter on climbing support than it might be at the Grand Tours.

Vingegaard hasn't won Paris-Nice before. He was second to Pogačar in 2023. If he can claim the title this year and avoid any further bad luck, he can then head to the Giro d'Italia and try to re-establish himself as Pogačar's better at the Tour just like his Slovenian nemesis did in 2024 (albeit with Catalunya, not Paris-Nice).

Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)

After a contentious departure from UAE Team Emirates, Juan Ayuso is quickly establishing himself at the top of Lidl-Trek's stage race hierarchy. With his victory in this year’s Volta ao Algarve, he will be the sole rider to head up the team’s efforts in Paris-Nice after Mattias Skjelmose was unable to start because of injury

Ayuso is coming in with the momentum of a stage win and overall victory in Portugal, and he'll have Mathias Vacek and Søren Kragh Andersen as anchors for the TTT and Lennard Kämna for climbing support.

The enforced absence of Skjelmose means Ayuso will be the full focus of Lidl-Trek's efforts, but as a former winner and runner-up of Tirreno-Adriatico, he'll have plenty of options on his own account despite the drop in firepower.

Kévin Vauquelin and Oscar Onley (Ineos Grenadiers)

Ineos Grenadiers are hedging their bets, giving two incoming riders a shot for Paris-Nice: Frenchman Kévin Vauquelin and Oscar Onley.

The two exciting young riders also had a strong start to 2026: Onley was fourth in Algarve, while Vauquelin was fifth.

Their strengths balance each other's weaknesses – Vauquelin is the better time trialist, while Onley is a stronger climber – and two is always better than one when it comes to trying to defeat a star like Vingegaard.

In this edition of Paris-Nice, the stage profiles may suit Onley, but the team time trial will be pivotal in shaping their overall standing. With Filippo Ganna participating in Tirreno-Adriatico, Ineos will be missing a key TTT rider who will most likely be powering their Tour de France team time trial in July.

Aleksandr Vlasov and Dani Martínez (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

With Remco Evenepoel taking a break before the Volta a Catalunya, Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe also head into Paris-Nice without former winner Primož Roglič (racing Tirreno), leaving Dani Martínez and Aleksandr Vlasov to lead the charge.

Both riders have finished seventh overall in their first stage races of 2026 – Vlasov at the Ruta del Sol and Valenciana, Martínez at the Volta ao Algarve. Both riders, too, have past podiums and a single stage win in Paris-Nice on their palmarès – Martínez was third in 2022, Vlasov second in 2021.

While Martínez is punchier, Vlasov is more of a diesel, so they'll be targeting different stages. Having two equally matched leaders will be advantageous, tactically. Can either of them match the likes of Vingegaard? We'll find out in Nice.

Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious)

Frenchman Lenny Martinez has been hyper-aggressive in his first three outings this year, finishing on the podium in the Faun Drôme and Faun Ardèche Classics, and looks to be on fine form for Paris-Nice.

A stage winner in 2025, Martinez is back in the Race to the Sun for the second time, having become far more consistent in week-long stage races last year with fifth place in Catalunya and second at Tour de Romandie.

Still just 22, the early signs in 2026 are pointing toward a true breakthrough year for Martinez, and Paris-Nice might just be a confirmation.

Iván Romeo (Movistar)

22-year-old Romeo started to come into his own in 2025 after his first two neo-pro years. Last year, he landed just off the podium in the UAE Tour and scored a top-10 in the Volta a Valenciana.

In the first two months of this year, Romeo has finished fourth in the Clàsica Jaén and won Ruta del Sol after seizing the lead on stage 2 from the breakaway before smartly fending off the challenge from Uno-X Mobility's Andreas Leknessund.

He won't be given the same luxuries in Paris-Nice, but Romeo is a clever and dynamic racer worth watching. The same could be said for Leknessund, also lining up at this race.

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