Tadej Pogačar has changed E3 Saxo Classic's status but it remains the best Flanders form guide – A closer look at the contenders for Friday's race

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away from the universe containing Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), there was an era when whatever happened in the E3 Saxo Classic was seen as the most reliable optic for success for what played out nine days later in the Tour of Flanders.

While Omloop Het Nieuwsblad was considered too far away on the calendar and has never been won in the same year by the same rider who conquered De Ronde, the much closer Gent-Wevelgem (now In Flanders Fields) was always too much of a law unto its perpetually eccentric self and Dwars door Vlaanderen, now held on Wednesday, feels too straightforward (relatively speaking) and lowkey. E3 and Flanders have been won by the same rider in the same year no fewer than nine times since 1998.

The key to it losing that status is Pogačar. Just as almost every major one-day cobbled Classic (and a fair few others) has been re-shaped by Pogačar's propensity for long-range attacks, so there's been a knock-on effect on the events where he's not taking part, too, like E3 Saxo Classic - which Pogačar has only raced once, in 2023. As a result, it's become more of a general guide to Flanders form than a specific one, particularly this year, when the slightly weaker field is missing some of the key other players, like Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike).

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That said, and to take last year, no fewer than five of the top 10 finishers in E3, also featured in the top ten of Flanders. And if 2025 Flanders winner Pogačar wasn't amongst the E3 participants last March, it's not as if we really needed reminding he was going to be a factor nine days further on. So even if E3 isn't quite as accurate a gauge of success as it used to be, it's still a good form guide for the bigger event 10 days later for those who take part.

E3's role as a final testbed for Flanders hasn't always been the case, though. E3 was first held in 1958, but only in its current form in the 1990s, when the mix of cobbled bergs and obscure Flemish rural backstreets made it so similar to Flanders. E3 is 60 kilometres shorter than the Ronde, too.

The parallels these days are much clearer. All but two of the 16 ascents (one less than last year) and one of the 10 cobbled sectors (one less than last year) are in the final 120 kilometres of the 206 that comprise the route. Few cobbled Classics have such an intense, draining and drawn-out finale and the double ascent of the Oude Kwaremont (from different approaches each time) and going up the new E3-Col in Ronse's Karnemelkbeekstraat, with stretches of 12%, will only add to the challenges. The usual final combination of the Varent cobbles and Tiegenberg climb, though, as well as a 20-kilometre run-in afterwards, remains a tried-and-tested last segment of the race.

Even if E3's status as a herald of Flanders is diminished, it remains an event in a class of its own.

The contenders

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech)

Some doubts still hover around Mathieu van der Poel after his crash and finger injury in Milan-San Remo, and his fading in the final kilometres of La Primavera also sparked a few question marks. But should he turn up, there is only one stand-out favourite for this year's E3 Saxo Classic and that's the rider who's won the race for the last two years and who's never been off the podium in his four participations since 2021.

2024's victory and 2025 were taken in remarkably similar fashion, too, launching attacks 40 kilometres out, on the Paterberg in 2024 and the Aude Kwaremont in 2025. So no doubts that he's got this race dialled. There are multiple reasons for this, but one is maybe that his bike-handling skills - which he used to stunning effect in Omloop this spring, avoiding a crash on the Molenberg after Rick Pluimers fell heavily right in front of him - are more than in tune with the never-ending technical demands of Harelbeke's crunch final half.

With the honourable exception of Jasper Philipsen, who was not present at E3, another rarely mentioned factor about Van der Poel is his excellent team support. Riders like Paris-Roubaix podium finisher Sylvan Dillier, the Swiss veteran who was part of a 200-kilometre breakaway in San Remo, can be invaluable assistance to the Dutchman before his usual devastating solo efforts. But so too could the likes of Tibor de Grosso, more than ten years Dillier's junior and fast learning the ropes. Alpecin don't have not such a roll call of galacticos as UAE Team Emirates do at their disposal, perhaps, but there are always a host of strong supporters.

Van der Poel rarely needs to make a statement, such as been his predominance in the Classics in recent years, but after his San Remo setback, this might just be the time when he opts to prove to the world that he's not on a downwards trajectory form-wise after his injury. Or, looked at another way, you could say that if Van der Poel managed to keep Pogačar in check for so long at San Remo despite not being able to hold his handlebars properly post-crash, then Friday's ride across the cobbles may turn out to be a complete walk in the park for him, too.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)

Second in E3 last year, prior to a third win in Gent-Wevelgem (now In Flanders Fields), Mads Pedersen delivered a hugely impressive fourth place in Milan-San Remo last week on what was effectively his season debut. The record books will have his 2026 start date down as Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, of course. But after such a bad crash on stage 1 in Valencia, fracturing his collarbone and wrist, fourth place at San Remo six weeks later for the former World Champion represented something of a comeback for the ages.

His morale will likely be climbing high as a result, but if he obviously has the endurance to handle 200 kilometres at E3, the question is more - can Pedersen really handle the much tougher terrain (and, potentially, weather) in Belgium than the smooth roads of the Ligurian coastline in San Remo?

You'd be tempted to say yes, of course, given how well he handled the torrential rain in Harrogate in a certain World Championships victory eight years ago. But after his injuries and long spell away from racing, this is no ordinary spring for Pedersen, so even after San Remo, E3 represents another big voyage into the unknown for the Dane.

Should he be on form, there's every chance he could be the rider who runs Van der Poel the closest, as was the case, together with Pogačar, in Flanders and Roubaix last year. The forever ambitious Pedersen will be itching, in any case, to turn in a top performance on terrain that he knows even better than Van der Poel - he has raced E3 no fewer than eight times, twice as many times as the Dutchman.

Last but not least, if Pedersen does need to take a back seat, then Lidl-Trek's fast-rising Czech powerhouse Matthias Vacek is also out to make a name for himself after a quiet start to his Classics campaign - and Pedersen for sure would be happy to help the teammate who gave him so much support in last year's Giro d'Italia.

Jasper Stuyven (Soudal-QuickStep)

One of the most experienced E3 racers this year - he's one of just four on the startlist with 10 participations alongside teammate Dylan van Baarle, Matteo Trentin (Tudor) and Luke Durbridge (Jayco-AlUla) - Jasper Stuyven's second place in the 2024 edition of E3 represents his high-tide mark in the race to date. But in a sense his past participations barely matter, given his new role as the co-leader of a revamped, revitalised cobbled Classics team in Soudal-QuickStep, the home squad par excellence for these races. What's more, Soudal's star rider of yesteryear, Tom Boonen (present in the Soudal team car for E3 this March), remains the record holder for victories in E3, with five.

As such, the former Lidl-Trek racer and Omloop winner is seen as the spearhead (together with Van Baarle) for a revival of Soudal's Classics ambitions in the post-Remco Evenepoel era. It's true that plenty of cautious notes have been struck about how their plans will take a good while to come to full fruition. But Stuyven will surely be wanting to make some kind of statement of future ambition, even if it doesn't actually turn into full-blown success this year.

Watching how he and Van Baarle - who has much the same mission, but has never cracked the top five in E3 - work together to try to pull something off will be an interesting sub-plot at the very least in this year's E3. Or could it be something more?

Kasper Asgreen (EF Education-EasyPost)

Five years feels like fifty years at times in cycling when it comes to success, and from some perspectives, Kasper Asgreen's Classics dominance of 2021, when he took both E3 and the Tour of Flanders in the same season, certainly looks to be fast fading in the sport's rearview mirror. But at the same time, it's only two since Asgreen was in a long break in E3 early on (and he did the same in Paris-Roubaix a few weeks later, too), and the Danish star still has the caché of being one of just two riders starting E3 this year who actually know what it feels like to win it.

The lack of top results in recent years removes him from the uppermost rung of pre-race favourites, but with no Neilson Powless currently racing because of injuries, Asgreen's moved up a few notches in the unwritten team hierarchy, so this is a good chance for him to grab if he can. As Asgreen showed with his Giro d'Italia stage win last year, he's still got an excellent nose for breakaways and in a team like EF with a long tradition for room for mavericks to shine, too, he's got both breathing space for his gift for improvisation that allows him regularly to punch above his weight, too.

Last but not least, how many riders can say they've beaten Van der Poel in a Monument in a two-up sprint? Not many, but Asgreen is one of them, way back in Flanders in 2021. Five years on, that's still got to count for something.

Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ United)

Romain Grégoire's possibilities in the cobbled Classics are a total mystery, even to himself - yet despite that lack of experience, all of the indirect evidence available suggests that he could well make a real impact.

Making his debut in the northern one-day racing, despite his comparative youth, the 23-year-old has developed a real knack for being in the right place at the right time, even if he's yet to hit the big time. In the 2025 San Remo, for example, he was the last rider to be dropped by the leading trio of Van der Poel, Filippo Ganna and Pogačar, and he was the one who made the most of the confusion in a lead group sent off course in Faun Ardéche to win that race in 2025, too. Furthermore, he's got wins as varied in terrain as stages of the Tour de Suisse, Itzulia Basque Country and the Faun Drome this year, and then there was a fourth place in Strade Bianche and second in Trofeo Laigueglia this year as well.

This year, in keeping with that versatility, the 23-year-old's not simply switching the Ardennes Classics for his first full cobbled Classics campaign, rather he's combining both. Absolutely nothing directly suggests that Grégoire will be up there on Friday afternoon amongst the bergs and straats of central Flanders. But absolutely everything about him suggests it wouldn't be a surprise, either.

Christophe Laporte (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Christophe Laporte's E3 track record is deceptive. Second in 2022 suggests he was the first loser, but in fact, that day he and teammate Wout van Aert launched a joint long-range attack on the Taienberg that saw the Frenchman and Belgian reach the finish line together. Van Aert was allowed to roll home in first place, but Laporte could just as easily have been given that honour.

Away for the best part of a year because of illness in 2025, fourth in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad speaks volumes about how his ability to ride the cobbled Classics has been undiminished by so long off the bike. The form was already there, in fact, in the Vuelta a Andalucia, where he won the opening day's chaotic bunch sprint, and it was in evidence, too, in his hard work at San Remo for Van Aert en route to the Belgian's podium finish.

Once again, Laporte's position in the Visma-Lease a Bike hierarchy for the Classics will hinge at least a little on Van Aert takes part in E3. For now, that's unlikely to happen, and the absence of Matteo Jorgenson - focusing on the Ardennes Classics - pushes the Frenchman a little further into the limelight. Already a winner at Ghent-Wevelgem (In Flanders Fields) a few years back, Laporte may have to play second fiddle there to Matthew Brennan, assuming the Briton has recovered from the illness that kept him out of Milan-San Remo. But at E3, if Van Aert does not make a last-minute appearance on the start list, it'd be a huge surprise if Laporte was not in the thick of the action on his own account.

Biniam Girmay (NSN)

It's been quite a few years now since Biniam Girmay made history with his 2022 victory in Gent-Wevelgem, and he preceded it with a fifth place in E3 Harelbeke just two days before. But even if he was completely out of the running in Milan-San Remo following his unfortunate crash, the Eritrean fastman has had something of a bounce back this year following a more uneven 2025, and after two wins in Spain, some near misses in Paris-Nice, Belgium might just be where he comes good.

His best option would be, obviously, a reduced bunch sprint, where the multiple Tour de France stage winner can put his hugely impressive final turn of speed to great effect. Even if Van der Poel does head up the road on one of his trademark solo moves, a podium position remains a possibility. And if that happens, then suddenly at Ghent-Wevelgem - which is a race that suits him down to the ground - anything could be possible.

Aimé De Gendt (Pinarello-Q36.5)

What do Aimé De Gendt and Christophe Laporte have in common apart from both being hugely experienced and talented Classics riders in their 30s? More than you'd think, perhaps: just as Laporte has a chance to shine on Friday with no Van Aert and Matteo Jorgenson to overshadow him a little, so De Gendt has the opportunity to make an impact in E3 Saxo Classic given the lack of Tom Pidcock in the squad's line-up.

You could immediately qualify that by saying that Pidcock was never down to take part in E3, whereas Van Aert is a former double winner. But the point remains that in both cases, in the absence of a charismatic team leader, races like E3 become opportunities for the lesser lights to step to the fore. And in the case of De Gendt, just like Laporte, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that at E3 they could seize that chance with both hands.

Fifth in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the most similar race to E3 beyond Flanders itself, is one good reason to argue he'll be up there on Friday. So, too, is a seventh place in E3 last year and a host of minor results and near-misses around five or six seasons back. These latest results suggest that De Gendt is having something of a revival of top performances. And given this is Pinarello's collective opportunities to step into the limelight whilst Tom Pidcock pounds his way across the mountains of the Volta a Catalunya - and before coming back to lead the team in the Ardennes - it's certainly a good moment for De Gendt to be hitting the high notes.

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