History says Enric Mas won't win this Vuelta a España, but he's had the answer for everything since inheriting red and distancing Primož Roglič – GC analysis

Spain has waited 12 years for a next home winner of the men's Vuelta a España. Not since Alberto Contador took control of the red jersey on stage 10 of the 2014 edition and carried it all the way to the Santiago de Compostela finale have they played the Marcha Real when presenting the maillot rojo on the final podium.

But after 14 stages of the 2026 race, Spain is continuing to believe in Enric Mas, who, yes, inherited the jersey rather than specifically earning it, but has more than proved a worthy leader since he refused to wear it on the podium in Xeraco after Tadej Pogačar crashed out on stage 8.

Three big GC days of racing have come since – the kind of days where in the past you would expect Mas to underperform on at least one of, where a rival would scorch ahead of him as he folded back into the role of deuteragonist – but on each occasion, Mas hasn't just passed the test and survived; he's been the strongest.

Try as Felix Gall might continue to do, rated as the second-strongest climber before the race having finished runner-up in the Giro d'Italia behind Jonas Vingegaard, the Austrian has had no answer for Mas.

At the Alto de Aitana, Gall's Decathlon team set a violent tempo to bring the race back to the overall contenders, only for Mas to leave him behind. Last Thursday at Calar Alto, it was very much a case of déjà vu: Decathlon whittled things down with their strength in numbers, but Mas countered and gained more time.

Assured, punchy, superior, and in control are words which, in Vueltas gone by, you would associate best with four-time winner, Primoz Roglic, but even he – the rider who has long been a thorn in Mas' side when it comes to pursuing red – is losing time at every opportunity.

Mas has taken ownership of those adjectives and is doing to Roglič what seemed unthinkable. For years, the finales of many of the Vuelta's hardest climbs would witness a 'Roglification', a term coined by journalist Daniel Friebe for when the Slovenian would get his team to control the race before he ruthlessly burned his rivals, including Mas on several occasions, away on the final ramps of a climb.

But there has been no latest example of the like to talk about yet at this ongoing Vuelta; Mas is far and away the punchiest of the top GC favourites, which his surprising bridge across to Pogačar on stage 6 highlighted best, and he backed up on stage 14.

After his Movistar team had controlled the day well and the GC fight started to unfold up to Sierra de La Pandera, Mas opted to mark the moves that came from Richard Carapaz and Gall, who tried only a few big attacks instead of trying to slowly grind down his competitors as he had in previous days.

But even his most well-timed acceleration was easily responded to by Mas, who expeditiously closed the gap. Gall had fired his best shot, but the race leader was never in trouble; in fact, the situation was about to get better for him.

For the second GC day running, Movistar had got their tactics perfect when it came to breakaway formation, with the same characters who got up the road and provided the ideal assist en route to Calar Alto also finding themselves with a big role to play to Pandera: Pablo Castrillo and Raul Garcia Pierna.

Movistar didn't arrive at this Vuelta with a star-studded team by any means, but there can be no questions asked of the riders who are supporting Mas. The other standout has been 23-year-old former national champion Ivan Romeo, who has got through a mountain of work on the front, seemingly leading Mas onto the climbs and having enough in the tank to control the lower slopes.

With the break several minutes up the road on stage 14, Castrillo was the first to be caught up by Mas in the group of favourites, upping the pace for his leader and providing sustenance, but it was Garcia Pierna who played a starring role in support. Caught by Mas, Gall, Roglič, and Carapaz in the final 2km, he got on the front and put in one last pull to distance the four-time winner and his Ecuadorian former teammate.

Gall pushed on to overtake Roglič overall and jump into second, taking Mas with him as he moved further ahead in the lead as the second week nears its conclusion. What was a 1:00 lead from second place when he inherited it ahead of stage 10 has grown out to 2:06 in the five stages since.

History not on Mas' side

Three more guaranteed GC showdowns remain in the third week for the leader to navigate, and while anything but him extending his lead seems unlikely given how the second week has played out, it's the business end of things where Mas has long failed to deliver in his career.

A top climber throughout his career, he's only ever won one WorldTour GC title, at the Tour of Guangxi in 2019. And in the 13 stage races both he and Roglič have finished, Mas has never beaten the Slovenian.

History says Mas won't win this Vuelta, but thankfully for him, it's not the palmarès of his long-term rival that he is racing. But that doesn't mean you can, nor should, count out the wily Red Bull racer.

On paper, a more than two-minute lead should feel more comfortable than it does for Spain's hopes, but the stage 18 time trial remains the factor causing concern. It's a discipline which Mas has long been inferior at, especially compared to Roglič, but he can count on the fact that Gall similarly doesn't excel against the clock, so it will be his old rival he has to keep an eye on.

It's been the question posed to both of them ever since Mas went into red. Does he have enough time? Is 1:18 enough? Is 1:45 enough? And now, is 2:10 enough to hold off red being snatched from him before the final mountain stages?

The record books again point to Roglič definitely having the upper hand next Thursday. 22 times they have raced time trials against each other as professionals, and on 22 occasions Mas has lost out.

But what can't be underestimated is that last 25 seconds he gained on yesterday's stage, pulling his advantage out past the two-minute mark, a huge psychological win for Mas, who even on his worst day on the TT bike, should be able to hold onto red heading into the brutal final weekend.

Roglič and Mas last raced over a time trial of similar distance at last year's Tour de France into Caen, and the time gap between the two was 1:38, but the Slovenian's form does remain a bit of an unknown, having been hit by a driver and crashed amid his preparation for the Vuelta.

And even in his absolute pomp as a TT rider in 2021, when he became the Olympic Champion in Tokyo, Roglič's destruction of the final Vuelta time trial into Santiago de Compostela saw him beat Mas – who had second place secured and only had to survive the final day – by 2:04.

So in reality this current version of the pair looks set to have the distance between them narrowed, yes, but likely with Mas holding onto the jersey and psychological edge before Peñas Blancas on stage 19 and Collado del Alguacil on the penultimate day.

And even if Roglič was able to produce a vintage performance in the time trial to wrest back red, Mas could be confident in having the advantage once again when the road heads uphill, but keeping his head would perhaps be the most essential ingredient.

This Vuelta is far from done, and Mas still has three big tests to pass, alongside the threat of coming unstuck at any moment, highlighted all too well by Pogačar's crash, but for now, as the blazing heat continues to beat down on the riders in Spain, it's the home veteran who's in the driving seat to take it home.

It will take something really special to beat him, but as has proven true several times in the past decade, there's few things more dangerous to a rider's race leader than an underestimated Primož Roglič with nothing to lose

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