Tour de France 2024 stage 1 preview - Will Tadej Pogačar strike the first blow in Rimini?

Eight weeks after the first Grande Partenza of the season, the second is upon us as Italy plays host to the start of the year's second Grand Tour.

Following the opening of the Giro d'Italia in Piedmont, the peloton has headed to Tuscany for the first stage of the Tour de France, Saturday's hilly 206km cross-country run over the Apennines from Florence to Rimini.

As was the case at the Giro, the opener here is one suited to the puncheurs and GC contenders, this time with seven classified climbs packed into the route and a flat 15km run to the line in the seaside resort town.

Before the winner of the stage and thus, the first leader of the 2024 Tour, is decided, there's the matter of the polka dot jersey. A maximum of 23 points on offer hand a hefty reward to the inaugural breakaway of the race, though the battle over the early lead in that competition should serve as an aperitivo to what unfolds later.

Rimini, situated by the Adriatic Sea as a gateway to the pan-flat Po Valley, may not have any star racers to shout about in contrast to the famous Florentine Gino Bartali. And despite the sprint-friendly, local geography (Arnaud Démare won a Giro stage there four years ago), it's likely a rider with abilities closer to the Giro- and Tour-winning Bartali than the Frenchman will raise their arms in victory on Saturday afternoon.

The sprinters, the GC men and the puncheurs

But who? The lead-in to the start of this year's Tour has been seemingly marked more by pessimism and caution from the peloton's big names, rather than any grand proclamations about their ambitions.

With so many climbs lying in wait on the opening day, including three inside the closing 50km, the consensus is that pure sprinters including Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan), and Fabio Jakobsen (DSM-Firmenich PostNL) have virtually no chance of success. Reigning green jersey winner Philipsen's proclamation on Thursday that he could "start without any stress" cemented that.

Even the hopes of those more versatile contenders – think Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease A Bike), and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny) – are borderline. Van Aert, who has only logged a handful of race days since crashing out of the spring Classics, has already played down his chances, saying, "I've never started the Tour de France in such poor form."

His eternal rival Van der Poel compared the opening two stages with the same days at last year's race, saying "it looks like it'll be a bit too hard again" and adding that "it depends on… what other teams want to do."

He noted that there will likely only be a few chances for him to taste personal success this Tour, with even the "easier stages" logging over 3,000 metres of climbing. The number on stage 1? 3,800…

Pedersen was upbeat at Lidl-Trek's pre-race press event earlier in the day, though even his statements were cloaked in caution, his chances also at the mercy of other teams. Well, one in particular.

"I know it'll be on the limit if not over the limit, so everything has to play in our favour, but it also would be stupid just to sit up at the bottom and say 'OK, I can't make it'," he said.

"If I have to do a result, then it really depends on how all the teams want to race the last climb. So, it's open, it's in their hands if I will make it or not. Especially UAE – if they want to win already on day one, and if they go full from the bottom to the top, then I don't know – I'm not going to survive."

Unsurprisingly, all eyes are on UAE Team Emirates heading into stage 1. The sprint specialists may not survive to contest the finish simply because they're not suited to the stage while reigning race champion Jonas Vingegaard's first day back in the saddle could well predict his ability to once again challenge for the yellow jersey.

"Everything from here is a bonus," he said on Thursday. "We might have to fight to hang on early in the race and then later in the race, we'll find our normal level. We'll find out in the coming days."

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) – overall and stage winners at the Critérium du Dauphiné earlier this month – are further names to watch, even if both showed signs of weakness at the warm-up race.

That brings us to Tadej Pogačar, then, the man with the strongest support squad in the race, the man who dominated the Giro a month ago, and who – a reportedly very mild COVID-19 infection aside – has suffered no blips or setbacks in his Tour preparation.

He and his UAE Team Emirates squad reconned the stage earlier this week and onlookers are already expecting him to try and put distance between himself and a rusty Vingegaard as soon as possible.

There are other names in the frame, of course, but thoughts of an opening-day battle royale between the biggest GC names on the start line are hard to resist. Beyond the 'big four', it's names such as Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), and Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla) who spring to mind.

Elsewhere, a raft of puncheurs are in the frame, be it from the breakaway or from one of the myriad attacks which will fly over those late hills. Look out for established names who have numerous Tour stage wins on their cumulative palmarès including Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla), Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious), and Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost).

Others to watch include Israel-Premier Tech's pairing, La Flèche Wallonne winner Stephen Williams and Dauphiné podium sitter Derek Gee, one of the breakthrough men of the year in Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny), Arkéa-B&B Hotels promise Kévin Vauquelin, and newly crowned Spanish champion Alex Aranburu (Movistar).

The route

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That crop of GC men, outsiders, puncheurs, and hopefuls will have plenty to grapple with besides the searing accelerations of their rivals – and warm temperatures of up to 30°C – on stage 1.

The opening stage of the Tour is as comparable to a major one-day Classic as any other day of racing, with its 3,800 metres of climbing sitting between Strade Bianche (3,670) and Liège-Bastogne-Liège (4,270). It's far from a simple start to the Tour, and it's no surprise that the race's sprinters have already largely written off their chances of success.

The flat start to the race will take the peloton from the Parco delle Cascine along the River Arno, past the historic sights of central Florence and across the famous Ponte Vecchio, part of a flat 30km run towards the first climb of the day.

The second-category Col de Valico Tre Faggi (12.5km at 5.1%) is the day's first difficulty, peaking at 930 metres after 49.7km. A 25km descent into the region of Emilia-Romagna brings the race to climb number two, the third-category Côte des Forche (2.5km at 6.2%) and the intermediate sprint at Santa Sofia shortly afterwards.

The second-longest climb of the day is up next in the form of the third-category Côte de Carnaio (10.5km at 4.6%) before another long descent – this time 30km – to another second-category test in the Côte de Barbotto (5.8km at 7.6%).

From there, the riders pass into the province of Rimini and the final 60km, where the second-category Côte de San Leo (4.6km at 7.7%) and third-category Côte de Montemaggio (4.2km at 6.6%) lie in wait.

The day's final climb, coming via a short excursion through the enclave micronation of San Marino, is the aptly named Côte de San Marino (7.1km at 4.8%).

The gradients aren't the steepest of the day, and the climb isn't the longest, but with plenty of climbing already in the legs, this is where the stage 1 winner and first yellow jersey of the 2024 Tour may well be decided, though a 10km descent and 15km flat run to Rimini lie ahead.

Stage 1 Sprints

• Intermediate sprint, km 86.6

Stage 1 Mountains

• Col de Valico Tre Faggi (12.5km at 5.1%), cat. 2, km 49.7
• Côte des Forche (2.5km at 6.2%), cat. 3, km 77.8
• Côte de Carnaio (10.5km at 4.6%), cat. 3, km 98.3
• Côte de Barbotto (5.8km at 7.6%), cat. 2, km 135.6
• Côte de San Leo (4.6km at 7.7%), cat. 2, km 157.3
• Côte de Montemaggio (4.2km at 6.6%), cat. 3, km 167.1
• Côte de San Marino  (7.1km at 4.8%), cat. 3, km 179.7