Our Tour de France predictions – The Cyclingnews team's best guesses for how the race will play out

It's very nearly time: the Tour de France starts tomorrow and finally all of the speculation will begin to turn into reality as the battles for stage wins, the podium, the classifications and the yellow jersey play out

Here at Cyclingnews, we've all been deep in Tour mania for several weeks, covering all the latest news and publishing lots of in-depth features and analysis about the race. But given all we've written and read about the race, what do we actually think will happen?

I (Matilda) challenged my colleagues to nail their colours to the mast before the racing gets underway on Saturday, predicting the full podium, jersey winners and one wildcard prediction.

Some of us went quite safe (I think the consensus is that Tadej Pogačar is going to win the Tour) but there are some wild ones in there too (Jackie, I'm looking at you). We've also weighed in on the Paul Seixas hype, what teams need to do to beat Pogačar, and how the sprints will play out.

What do you make of our predictions, and what are your own? Have a read and then join the discussion in the comments below!

Paul Seixas WON'T fly as high as some think – Matilda (Assistant Features Editor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Isaac del Toro

Mountains jersey: Tadej Pogačar

Green jersey: Mads Pedersen

White jersey: Isaac del Toro

It shouldn't feel like a wild prediction to say that a 19-year-old isn't going to podium the Tour de France, but given the hype and expectation around Paul Seixas it feels like I'm being contrary. I don't think Paul Seixas is going to smash this Tour, at least not overall. I can see him starting really well, I can even see him winning a stage, but I predict that he's going to falter towards the end and ultimately it won't be a top five performance. He's clearly a generational talent, but the Tour Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes taught us that he is still a bit too keen, a bit hot-headed, and that he does absolutely have weaknesses. If there's any race that can expose weaknesses, it's the Tour, and so – without a hint of criticism, he is 19 after all – I don't think he's going to go straight to the top. His future is bright, but this will be a learning experience.

Jonas Vingegaard will get his third – James (Staff Writer)

Podium:

1. Jonas Vingegaard
2. Tadej Pogačar
3. Paul Seixas

Mountains jersey: Alex Baudin

Green jersey: Tim Merlier

White jersey: Paul Seixas

Jonas Vingegaard will return serve in his ongoing match with Tadej Pogačar at the Tour de France, taking his total to three yellow jerseys compared to the Slovenian's four by the time they reach Paris.

While the signs point to a stronger-than-ever Pogačar again given his complete domination of almost every race day he's completed in 2026, this season has seen Vingegaard's cleanest run at the biggest race on the calendar since 2023.

On that occasion, he cemented his win from the year prior ahead of Pogačar in emphatic fashion – though the Slovenian had broken his wrist in Liège three months prior – but in the past two editions has been hampered in spring with heavy crashes at Itzulia Basque Country and Paris-Nice, disrupting his build-up.

With that in mind, 2026 brings Pogačar and Vingegaard to the start of the Tour on the most equal footing since 2022, when the Dane also got the better of his rival. I think something similar will happen as the next three weeks unfold, where a top-shape Vingegaard, buoyed by his win at the Giro, will take down Pogačar in the heat and high mountains once again.

Julian Alaphilippe will be France's only stage winner – Alasdair (Senior News Writer)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Adam Yates

Mountains jersey: Ben Healy

Green jersey: Dorian Godon

White jersey: Juan Ayuso

France got just one stage win last year, but it was a humdinger, as Valentin Paret-Peintre soared to victory on the Mont Ventoux, in the process proving that Soudal-QuickStep were far from a spent force even after the abandon of Remco Evenepoel.

And this year? Of the top names, Dorian Godon has taken a giant step up in transition stage victories, but he's now on everybody's radar, as is teammate Kévin Vauquelin and rival Paret-Peintre, Paul Seixas is likely going to be racing conservatively to try and survive as long as possible and Bruno Armirail will be on permanent Vingegaard-watch.

Julian Alaphilippe, however, has none of these responsibilities, a huge wealth of experience at winning Grand Tour stages, the ability to read a race like few others, and his versatility has been his trump card time and again.And when underestimated - like, arguably, this year in the Tour - he's at his most dangerous: what are you waiting for, Alaf'?

Seixas and Del Toro will light up the race – Patrick (Deputy Editor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Paul Seixas

Mountains jersey: Lenny Martinez

Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen

White jersey: Paul Seixas

I think it’s a two-horse race but I think two other, younger horses, will make it a more open and interesting battle than we’ve seen in recent years.

For half a decade the Tour has settled into a pattern of Pogačar vs Vingegaard, followed by a group of also-rans. This rivalry has been riveting in places and with Vingegaard back to his best there’s every chance this latest chapter could be a classic. But with Paul Seixas and Isaac del Toro in attendance, there’s every chance it could be a more tactically complex race.

Seixas winning the Tour on debut at 19 is fanciful stuff but he’s so good I can see him on the podium. When Pogačar and Vingegaard really open up, I struggle to see the likes of Evenepoel, Ayuso, or Lipowitz really sticking, but I think – at least in the first half of the race – Seixas is right there with them, giving them something else to think about apart from each other.

I can also see a situation where Del Toro enters the tactical fray. UAE have the strongest team and when setting up Pogačar in the mountains I don’t see many riders left in contact as the Mexican comes to the end of his turn. He can sandbag with those also-rans behind, he can come back into it if there’s hesitation up front, and, dare we say it, he could also be used as a secondary card to put pressure on Vingegaard. I think this Tour could be a classic.

For all the talk of Vingegaard after his Giro win and the rise of Seixas, Tadej Pogačar will win comfortably – Dani (Senior News Writer)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Isaac del Toro

Mountains jersey: Tadej Pogačar

Green jersey: Tim Merlier

White jersey: Isaac del Toro

19-year-old Paul Seixas is the talk of the Tour as the buildup to the Grand Départ continues, but any mention of him becoming the youngest Tour champion in history is surely misplaced.

Seixas has impressed beyond the level of any teenager in recent memory with dazzling wins at Itzulia Basque Country and La Flèche Wallonne, and surely there’ll be memorable moments again here, but, as outings at Strade Bianche and Liège-Bastogne-Liège showed, he isn't ready to beat Tadej Pogačar just yet.

I'm afraid the same can be said of Jonas Vingegaard. He impressed with an expectantly dominant ride to Giro d'Italia glory, but I don’t know if we’ve seen any evidence that he can once again get the better of his great rival, Pogačar.

Vingegaard could only beat what was in front of him last month, but given how Pogačar has raced this season – a level above even his fearsome 2025 form – I find it hard to see anyone beating him, barring the usual caveats for crashes or illness.

Paul Seixas will rise to the occasion, and France will love it – Kirsten (Editor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Paul Seixas

Mountains jersey: Tadej Pogačar

Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen

White jersey: Paul Seixas

With the top two places in the overall classification appearing to be locked up between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, the race for third will be one of the most riveting to watch play out across the three weeks of racing between Barcelona and Paris. There is a lot of pressure on the young Frenchman, Paul Seixas, but I believe he will rise to the occasion; even if the top two spots are out of reach, a podium is certainly a possibility. In fact, the most interesting storyline of this year's Tour will be the group of riders - all in the young rider category, too - who will be in contention for the general classification (even if a couple of them are either co-leading alongside or supporting a veteran teammate this year in the hunt for yellow). Seixas is the youngest on that list at only 19, and up against riders like Isaac del Toro, 22, Lenny Martinez, Juan Ayuso, 23, and Florian Lipowitz, 25, all of whom have promising careers ahead of them and are the riders to watch for the future of the Tour de France. As for Seixas, whether he debuts with a stage win, a top-10 overall or reaches that final podium, there is no doubt that France will be behind him every step of the way.

Olav Kooij will shine if Seixas doesn't – Laura (Managing Editor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Remco Evenepoel

Mountains jersey: Paul Seixas

Green jersey: Tim Merlier

White jersey: Isaac del Toro

I know, I know. Pogačar is the overwhelming favourite, but the Tour de France is so chaotic that all the preparation in the world can't protect you from random mishaps - and Pogačar's luck has to run out sooner or later. Barring any incidents, I think it will be incredibly close between Vingegaard and Pogačar and yes, Remco Evenepoel. All three have had flawless seasons without crashes and injuries.

With regard to Seixas, I think it would be better for his career if he went for stage wins and the mountains jersey rather than the podium. A top 10 would easily follow, but it's a lot of pressure to fight for the Tour podium - he needs time to grow physically and mentally and time to race for fun a little bit.

My prediction for sprinters is that Olav Kooij will embrace his Tour chance and win a few stages, but Tim Merlier will be more consistent and take the green jersey over Jasper Philipsen. Del Toro will slot into the white jersey while supporting his teammate.

Dreaming of a wild gravel crossover – Jackie (North American Editor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Florian Lipowitz
3. Jonas Vingegaard

Mountains jersey: Paul Seixas

Green jersey: Tadej Pogačar

White jersey: Isaac del Toro

Looking outside the box and completely on the wild side, what if Specialized found a way for Soudal-QuickStep to add Mads Würtz Schmidt to their roster? Not only would that be a blockbuster move, but a huge boost to a team thought to be comprised of just Classics riders. They don't really have a major GC contender, and Würtz Schmidt would at least get them back into that conversation. The big Dane rode six years with WorldTour teams and has started three Grand Tours, riding the Tour once with Katusha Alpecin. He's won everything on gravel this year, including The Traka 360 and Unbound Gravel, so maybe he wants a new challenge? A ticket with Soudal-QuickStep keeps him on Specialized equipment. This is probably a nightmare scenario for the former road pro, so I'll dream on.

The green jersey will be the only truly interesting battle – Will (Senior Tech Writer)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Isaac del Toro

Mountains jersey: Tadej Pogačar

Green jersey: Jasper Philipsen

White jersey: Isaac del Toro

I would dearly love a close GC battle, but I just can’t see it with Pogačar being so imperious. I can see a world where the team uses his swashbuckling style early in the race to get a significant but not massive lead, and then uses that to demoralise the competition (and the audience, to be fair) into fighting for scraps and defending podium spots, in the meantime hoovering up the mountains jersey in the process and making it once again a de-facto bonus jersey for the winner.

The green jersey though is still anyone’s game. Unlike some years there doesn’t seem to be a clear dominant sprinter at large, and while I think Philipsen will ultimately triumph primarily down to the team around him, it could go anywhere, and will certainly liven up transition stages as well as flat ones, which might end up more exciting than the mountains if the race is sewn up by the time we get there.

Paul Seixas will inspire a new GC racing dynamic and so spark a new era in Tour history – Stephen (Contributor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Paul Seixas
3. Jonas Vingegaard

Mountains jersey: Thymen Arensman

Green jersey: Tim Merlier

White jersey: Paul Seixas

After six seasons of Pogačar-Vingegaard battles, I have a feeling that this year's Tour de France will follow a different, more unpredictable script. At least I hope so. Pogačar's performances are superlative but legendary editions of the Tour are built on fierce rivalry and aggressive racing. Vingegaard losing bravely to Pogačar is a sequel we've already seen.

Please step forward Paul Seixas. I hope the French teenager's talent and youthful bravado will change the dynamic of the Tour, perhaps inspiring the likes of Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz, Juan Ayuso and others to also pile in on Pogačar.

Seixas has already produced some incredible performances but it is his inner determination and quiet sense of greatness that makes him stand out. Ultimately, Seixas might not be able to defeat Pogačar this July but he will give us a first sign of what a post-Pogačar era could look like. And it looks good.

If Pogačar is to lose, Vingegaard, Seixas and Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe need to unite – Pete (Engagement Editor)

Podium:

1. Tadej Pogačar
2. Jonas Vingegaard
3. Isaac del Toro

Mountains jersey: Richard Carapaz

Green jersey: Dorian Godon

White jersey: Isaac del Toro

I'll accept that this is a head-over-heart prediction on paper. However, this year's start list fills me with hope that, in reality, Tadej Pogačar will have a harder time joining the 'Club des Cinq' than some think. Jonas Vingegaard arrives with less pressure than perhaps in previous years after his Giro victory, and I hope he will ride with greater risk as a result. Paul Seixas and a Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe duo of Florian Lipowitz and a well-rested Remco Evenepoel should hopefully compound the pressure on Pogačar. Plus, I hope to see the teams that lack an outright podium contender, I'm looking at you, Netcompany Ineos, EF Education-EasyPost, Lidl-Trek, be willing to take a bold approach and really cause carnage in the opening forays into the mountains.

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