A third WorldTour stage race victory in 2026 for Isaac del Toro? Analysing the Itzulia Basque Country contenders

Less than two weeks after the 2026 Volta a Catalunya, cycling's latest top-level reminder that there is much more to bike racing than the Classics each spring arrives in the shape of Itzulia Basque Country. Neither of the top two stage racers of the current peloton, Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) nor 2023 Itzulia winner Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease Bike) will be present this year.

But for anybody seeking to remind the world that there is life beyond the Slovenian and Dane, the 2026 Itzulia Basque Country is an excellent place to start. For one thing, if there's always been one golden rule of the Itzulia Basque Country in its previous 64 editions, it's been that it has always been anything but flat.

However, in this year's edition, the trend for a relentless series of climbs the length and breadth of Euskadi has been taken to a new extreme.

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There are no bunch sprint stages at all - something almost unprecedented in previous editions of Itzulia Basque Country. For another, there are five uphill finishes out of a possible six, and that includes the stage 1 individual time trial, which opens up the hostilities on Monday, April 6 in Bilbao.

The opening 13-kilometre time trial through the parks and hills of the coastal city is much harder than usual, compared to the 2025 fairly-flat run through the vineyards surrounding the Basque capital Vitoria, ending with an uphill 500-metre grind at 9.2% gradient. Then after that, on all bar the last stage into Bergara, every day's finale offers variations on the format of a tough major climb then a nasty little unclassified ascent to finish.

This could be the Cat.1 San Miquel de Aralar (9.4km at 7.4%, the hardest single climb of the entire race) on stage 2. Or maybe Itzulia's much favoured combination of a concluding first-category and third-category on the toughest mountains day - in this case stage 5 in the shape of the Cat. 1 Izua (3km at 10%) and Cat. 3 Urkaregi (5.3km at 4.3%).

But be it the 400 metres at 8.8% on stage 3 into the industrial town of Basauri or the short, sharp rise into Galdako on stage 4, the organisation have hit on what they believe is a winning formula in terms of the race profile, and this year they've decided to repeat it almost ad infinitum.

Can Juan Ayuso set the record straight?

There are plenty of top names present who've thrived on such terrain present in this year's lineup, from Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) to Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), both former winners. There are also double Itzulia champion Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) to breakaway specialist Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost). The Irishman was the protagonist of what is considered the longest successful breaks in Itzulia's race history - over 120 kilometres, 55 of them alone - last year on stage 5.

What all of these, and more, have in common is that they will have to stop Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG). The Mexican's track record this spring of week-long World Tour stage race victories, at UAE and then Tirreno, places him in pole position to claim a third, and arguably the hardest, in Itzulia Basque Country. If Del Toro does so, he'll be well on track to taking over from last year's Itzulia winner and teammate, João Almeida, as the new standout name in the week-long stage race speciality.

The other big conditioning factor to Itzulia in 2026 will be, as ever, the weather and arguably the most notoriously gnarly, technical stage racing route of the entire season. Most recent editions have been run off in the dry. But as soon as there's even a drop of rain in Itzulia Basque Country, on more occasions the roads - narrow, wooded, twisting and severely technical - become much harder to negotiate.

With or without the poor weather, Izulia's already high potential for ambushes and surprises in a race supported by one of the noisiest, most passionate cycling fanbases in the world outside Belgium, can quickly and unpredictably morph into a tense, claustrophobic cauldron of non-stop drama. If Del Toro can handle all that and win, then it'd be a huge step for the Mexican in his non-stop rise to greatness.

The contenders

Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

On paper, you could say Itzulia Basque Country is made for Isaac del Toro. There are lots of explosive finales for him to show off his devastating uphill accelerations, only one short-tish time trial - his main weakness to date in 2026 - and plenty of opportunities for him to launch a surprise attack and disappear up the road while his rivals hesitate about who should chase.

After two major overall wins at Tirreno-Adriatico and the UAE Tour this spring, Del Toro has major momentum with him in these kinds of stage races. What's more, he has a team that is drilled and used to controlling races of this calibre ad infinitum, whether it was with Almeida last year and Pogačar in the seasons before that.

On the downside, Del Toro has shown himself vulnerable in the past when it comes to making tactical decisions on the hoof, and there are plenty of those needed in a race as volatile as Itzulia, and which is rarely won on pure strength alone. The young Mexican star comes in as the top favourite, but if he loses too much time in the opening race against the clock, an equally major statement will be needed to redress the balance - and Itzulia isn't always the easiest race to do that.

Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)

After losing Paris-Nice when he hit the rain-soaked ground at speed on a perilous descent on stage 4, just when he was leading and looking more than set to give Jonas Vingegaard a run for his money, Juan Ayuso returns to the fray in Itzulia. He's doing so on home soil and in a race he's already won, back in 2024, too.

But if his victory two years ago was overshadowed by the terrible mass crash in Itzulia a few days earlier, this time Ayuso will be determined to set the record straight without any such incidents overshadowing his success. Getting his first opportunity this season to take on his former teammate Del Toro, the rider who eclipsed him completely in the Giro d'Italia last year, too, may well compound any lingering sense of unfinished business.

Ayuso's trump card could well be on day one in the 13-kilometre time trial in Bilbao, where - on paper - he'll be one of the big favourites. Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and, possibly, Roglič, Itzulia's time trial champion par excellence, will likely give him a run for his money. But if Ayuso gets a good enough head start, there's every chance he could lead the race from beginning to end, no matter what Del Toro throws at him.

Paul Seixas (Decathlon CGA CMM)

For the last 12 months or so, the main question about Paul Seixas has always been - what is his upper limit? And with a hugely promising eighth place in the Critérium du Dauphiné (as the Tour Auvergne-Rhône Alpes was then called) last summer, as well as his overall victory in the 2025 Tour de l'Avenir, Seixas now faces his first WorldTour stage race of 2026.

Second in the Volta ao Algarve in February, including a stage win on the Alto do Fóia, is already another big step up, particularly given that victory was taken against the likes of Ayuso and Almeida. But on the other hand, Itzulia is an exceptionally unforgiving, intricate kind of race, much more complex to handle than Algarve. So Seixas' youth and inexperience on the roads of the Basque Country could form a real counter-argument to those predicting France's first success in Itzulia since Laurent Jalabert in 1999.

Still, Seixas has the habit of punching above his weight time and again, and his explosive uphill finishes are just what's needed to succeed in Itzulia. And at 20 years of age, and with nothing to lose, even a crack at a stage win would be a major triumph and bode well for his chances in two more races where he'll be making his debut this spring: La Flèche Wallonne and Liége-Bastogne-Liège.

Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

One of the more obscure records of recent cycling history is that Primož Roglič has never lost a time trial in the Itzulia Basque Country. Ever since 2017, he's won no less than five, the most recent the opening stage in 2024. Could it be six times lucky?

All good things come to an end and it's not looking great for the Slovenian, to be honest, despite having some solid recent results like fifth in Tirreno-Adriatico to boost his confidence. The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe leader has the second half of the season, in particular the Vuelta a España, as his overriding goal of 2026, and whilst never one just to go through the motions, on paper a lot more riders will be in a lot better form than him right now.

And yet. Quite apart from Roglič's track record in the setpiece battles in the time trials, his victory in the 2021 Itzulia Basque Country, tearing apart Pogačar's UAE team and leaving the Slovenian reeling himself with a long-distance break on the final day, was one for the ages. What's more, Roglič's ability to suddenly turn the tables remained intact all the way through to the Volta a Catalunya last year, too, when he destroyed Ayuso's lead at the last moment possible.

So if Roglič is on anything near his top form, that TT record in Itzulia might just hold for yet another year. And who knows what could happen after that?

Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Five years ago, when Brandon McNulty briefly held the race lead of the Itzulia Basque Country and teammate Pogačar declared himself to work as a domestique de luxe, it had all the feel of a breakthrough moment. The lead itself went up in smoke, though, after Roglič went on the rampage on the final day. Not even Pogačar himself could stop McNulty plummeting from the top spot on GC to 17th overall by the finish.

Fast forward five years and McNulty's now notched up a seventh and a fifth place overall at Itzulia, as well as helping teammate João Almeida take the outright win last year. But it'd be only human if he still had something of a sense of unfinished business about the race, and on top of that he's clearly in great form.

A chance of a second podium finish at Paris-Nice unravelled for him in the big crash on stage 4 and he'd already had a crash in the Volta ao Algarve on its key mountain stage to the Foia, too, just at the wrong moment. But he was up there giving Pogačar key support at San Remo on the Cipressa in his debut participation and was again in the thick of it on the last day of Catalunya en route to Montjuic. After the success of San Remo for Pogačar, Itzulia, then, could be where it finally goes right for him on a personal level in 2026, too.

Ben Healy (EF Education-Easy Post)

After last year's devastating breakaway stage victories in the Basque Country and again in the Tour de France, nobody would be in the slightest bit surprised if Ben Healy opted to make a long-range move or three in this year's edition of Itzulia. But could this be where the Irishman steps up in the GC game as well?

With 10 wins to date in his palmares, Healy has yet to take a stage race, although leading the Tour de France last year en route to ninth overall - his first top 10 in a Grand Tour - and then getting eighth in Tirreno-Adriatico this spring hints he's got plenty of potential in that area.

While he's said over the winter he's looking more at one-day racing this year, it'd be interesting to see if he gets his chance to raise his game in the GC battles at Itzulia, a race with exactly the kinds of punchy finishes and short climbs that seem to suit him the best. And if he gets the chance to have a crack at another stage win en route, then so much the better

Ion Izagirre (Cofidis)

In his last year as a racer, it's far more likely that Ion Izagirre doesn't manage to win the Itzulia Basque Country than actually succeeds in repeating his 2019 overall victory. But in a sense, it doesn't matter.

With no less than seven podium finishes in his palmares in his home event - four third places, the most recent in 2024, two seconds and a win, as well as two stage victories - there can be no doubt that Izagirre's participation in Itzulia Basque Country for one last time has a very special feel to it.

There'll almost certainly be homages in start or finishing podiums along the way. But as one of the peloton's sharpest racers and a rider with no less than 12 participations in the race - the first with Euskaltel-Euskadi back in the former ProTour team's glory days in 2013 - Izagirre won't miss out on any chances to shine for one last time on his home roads. It'll certainly be worth keeping your eyes open for those, because Izagirre will be determined to make them count.

Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)

It's been a good year for Antonio Tiberi so far - or some important parts of it, anyway. A breakthrough summit finish victory in one of the two toughest stages of the UAE Tour at Jebel Mobrah culminated with a second overall behind Del Toro, and was preceded by a fourth place in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and followed by a third place in the Trofeo Laigueglia, too. Tirreno-Adriatico, though, was when the italian went off the boil in terms of stand-out performances - in an interview midrace he blamed poor recovery after UAE, although there may have been other reasons - and so how he performs in Itzulia, his next race, will be something of a voyage into the unknown.

Still, we'll know a lot more about his real state of form, after the opening 'race of truth' time trial, and it'll become clear if he's still on something of a recovery path, in which case a stage win is the most likely option, or aiming much higher. Either way, as we saw in the Tour de Pologne's similarly hilly terrain last year, where he took second overall, Itzulia is the kind of race that favours him well.