When the Giro d'Italia gets underway this Friday, it's going to simultaneously have one big GC favourite, whose race it is to lose, but also a real air of unpredictability and openness. Somehow, both of those things can be true at once.
The big favourite is, of course, Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike). But after him, the list of top contenders becomes a bit more shaky. With no João Almeida, no Richard Carapaz, no Simon Yates, no Isaac del Toro, there's not a group of five or 10 riders who are guaranteed to be in the overall battle on every mountain.
Article continues belowThe other element that feeds into this Giro's unpredictability is simply that the Giro is always unpredictable. Just last year, we watched Del Toro – ostensibly a domestique for 2025's 'big favourite' Juan Ayuso – wear pink for two weeks and very, very nearly win the whole thing.
Now, there's no gravel stage for Vingegaard to crash on, à la Ayuso last year, and you might say that he feels as safe a bet to take home pink in Rome as Tadej Pogačar was two years ago. And maybe he will; that wouldn't be a surprise, but we also can't be surprised if the roads of Italy throw some curveballs into the mix.
Where could surprises come?
The first danger zone for the GC favourites – and therefore fertile ground for opportunists – will likely be the start in Bulgaria. On unfamiliar roads and cities, unknown terrain and with rain possible, the already high-tension of a Grande Partenza will be ramped up this weekend, and there's a possibility for chaos.
Of course, a few seconds lost or gained in the first days is not often race-defining, but a Grand Tour can be a death by a thousand cuts, so what happens here will matter. And if someone unexpected gets off on the right foot, or a favourite gets off on the wrong one, the effects could be felt all race long.
The obvious place for a first real shake-up or surprise, however, is definitely going to be stage 7 to Blockhaus. Coming at a similar point in the race as when Del Toro went on his gravel rampage into pink, that end of the first week slot is always a tricky one. The GC riders still have half an eye on the large amount of racing and climbing still to come, but it's also late enough that anyone who unexpectedly grabs a chunk of time could defend a lot of it over the second two weeks.
Blockhaus is a fearsome, iconic climb, and though we're expecting it to be a GC favourites day, one underestimated rider in the breakaway could find themselves in a Del Toro position – in pink, with a lead to defend, and possibly the legs to do it. And as Del Toro proved, it's not always as easy to crack a rider like that as the other teams might think.
Who could be the next Del Toro?
Despite his exploits last year, Isaac del Toro won't be at the Giro this year, where he would have undoubtedly started as a rightful favourite. Instead, he's on track for his Tour de France debut with Tadej Pogačar, which makes sense on his journey as possibly the Slovenian's successor at that race, but it will be a shame not to see him come back and try to right some wrongs in Italy.
As I say, though, even if he was here, he's no longer in the 'huge breakout ride' category, but who could be this year?
If we're to follow the 'teammate of a big favourite' line directly, you could look at a member of Vingegaard's Visma support squad – a team that knows a little something about leadership drama at a Grand Tour after the 2023 Vuelta.
They seem to have got that under control, with teammates riding committedly for their leader and to great success in recent Grand Tours, but one rider who could make a splash on the race is Davide Piganzoli. It's mainly his exploits at the Giro in the last few seasons that earned him a step up to the WorldTour this year, and he is a real talent: he was 14th overall last year, riding for the lower-tier Polti VisitMalta.
Now, something would have to go quite wrong for Piganzoli to end up with an unassailable lead over his own teammate Vingegaard and find himself in Del Toro's position, but it's not impossible that he could have a really serious GC ride here – especially if Vingegaard sails into pink as easily as we think he might, leaving more chances for his teammates to ride for their own positions.
A rider more likely to break rank comes from within Del Toro's team, and that's Jan Christen. Without João Almeida, UAE Team Emirates-XRG find themselves returning to the Giro without a clear leader, but the likes of Adam Yates and Jay Vine will likely top the pecking order, with the former particularly capable of finishing on the podium.
But, after Del Toro's exploits last year, their talented young Swiss rider will surely be thinking he could see himself doing that too, and letting the road decide rather than a pre-race hierarchy. Christen hasn't yet struck gold in a real top-level stage race, but his results in smaller races and on climbs definitely point to him being a good stage racer. He's got a contract with UAE until 2030, so they clearly think so too – why not try to show his intentions now?
A young rider who will have largely undisputed GC leadership but is still a relative unknown is NSN's Alessandro Pinarello. The young Italian is heading to his second Giro, off the back of 10th overall at Tirreno-Adriatico and third at O Gran Camino. With NSN primarily hunting stages on the flatter days with Ethan Vernon and Corbin Strong, Pinarello won't have much climbing support other than Jan Hirt, but that also means he has very little to lose, and is probably still quite underrated by his rivals. He's exactly the kind of under-the-radar rider who the peloton could let grab a bit too much time in the first week, and then struggle to pull it back off him.
There are also several more experienced, more well-known riders who have perhaps struggled for Grand Tour GC results before, but should be looking to capitalise on the element of unpredictability and surprise in this race to better their personal best.
Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling) has a great opportunity to better his 10th at the Giro, whilst Chris Harper (Q36.5) has to take confidence from his Sestriere win last May, even if GC hasn't often gone his way before. Even Giulio Ciccone, who in theory is stage hunting whilst Derek Gee-West goes for GC for Lidl-Trek, will have to think about his own self-interest if he gets into the second or third week and nothing has gone wrong yet.
A lot goes into a Grand Tour, and the level of planning and precision means that less and less do we see team scripts ripped up on the road, or truly unexpected riders come to the fore overall, but if one race this year looks primed for that to happen, it is the Giro d'Italia.
Behind Vingegaard and Giulio Pellizzari, the GC could turn into a total free-for-all, and it's in these unusual circumstances where unexpected riders can flourish. So few teams have a defined leader that many of them will be letting the racing decide, which means if someone has a good day, they might find themselves thrust into the limelight and leadership they didn't plan for. It nearly worked out for Isaac del Toro last year, only to come apart on the very last day. Could an underdog go all the way this May?
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