Why Pogačar and Van Aert's teams aren't sensing weakness for the Tour of Flanders despite Mathieu van der Poel's near-miss at E3 Saxo Classic

In cycling's current era, when the "aliens" of the peloton attack away, there usually isn't any chance at bringing them back. Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar are the men's pros that currently fall into that category, claiming all 10 of the last Monument Classics between them, mostly in dominant fashion and alone.

Naturally, when they face off in the spring at Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, those races have been closer, but usually in the absence of the other at the start line of lesser Classics, it's almost expected that no one, barring injury or incident, will be able to challenge them.

That wasn't the case at the E3 Saxo Classic on Friday, though, as a 63km attack and 42km solo effort by Van der Poel almost came unstuck in the final 5km leading into Harelbeke, with his legs failing him and a four-man group breathing down his neck.

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As the line of media and soigneurs crowded around two TVs in the mixed zone past the finish, an audible groan cried out when the group stopped cooperating, and some chose to gamble instead of closing the final metres and three-second deficit to Van der Poel.

He would survive out in front for the hat-trick at E3, with what he described as "one of my best efforts." While he had answered any question marks after getting dropped on the Poggio at Milan-San Remo, seeds of doubt remained as his bold move off the front at E3 almost ended in a memorable defeat.

Similar situations have arisen for Tadej Pogačar in the past; think back to Amstel Gold Race last season when Remco Evenepoel reeled him in and Mattias Skjelmose pipped them both in the sprint, or when Jonas Vingegaard chased Pogačar down and outsprinted him to win stage 11 of the 2024 Tour de France.

But these are anomalies, and Pogačar returned served with interest on both occasions, winning La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège after the former and four more stages and a third yellow jersey at the latter.

Rivals cautious to underestimate him

So, with their next face-off at the Tour of Flanders looming large in eight days, should these late signs of potential weakness be a real concern for Van der Poel and Alpecin-Premier Tech, especially given how Pogačar has dominated their past two battles at De Ronde and only looks even stronger in 2026?

Or should it actually be looked at in the context of Van der Poel battling against both a headwind and a four-man group in the final, having launched his first burst instinctively behind a Tim van Dijke (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) attack on the Taaienberg and left everyone else he caught along the route behind?

Gathering opinions at the finish post-race, it's clear that certainly none of his rivals will be taking him nearly getting caught as a clear sign of chinks in his armour.

"Today, the wind situation for Van der Poel was harder because, for the most part, after the Taaienberg, it was headwind and he was alone,"UAE Team Emirates-XRG sports director Fabio Baldato told Cyclingnews.

"He spent a lot, so I don't think you need to look so much at today because the others were close to him; behind was a group of four working together into the last kilometres and again, the wind factor to him alone, I think, was a big, big change.

"If the situation we had was a day without wind, or maybe a tailwind, he would be going alone with even more like he always does."

Even with Baldato's words, UAE will nevertheless be filled with confidence after E3, but not necessarily because of Van der Poel's near miss. Rather the good news for them was that the group that all-but closed him down in the finale was powered mostly by one of the "big boss" Pogačar's key domestiques for Flanders, Florian Vermeersch.

Alongside the Belgian in the group, however, was Visma-Lease a Bike's Per Strand Hagenes, with the Dutch squad operating with a strong team on Friday, but without their leader for Flanders, Wout van Aert.

Van Aert will be back in action this Sunday at In Flanders Fields, the renamed Gent-Wevelgem, to take on his perennial rival Van der Poel once again. He'll arrive at the start line in Middelkerke off the back of his stunning comeback from a crash and bike change to finish third at Milan-San Remo. However, Visma, understandably, remain cautious about underestimating the Alpecin rider who has often been the thorn in their side.

"This was no weakness in Van der Poel. Everyone says 'oh, weakness Van der Poel' but this was no weakness of Van der Poel, this was the situation in the race, with still a very big group behind Van der Poel, and the parcours," said Visma DS Arthur van Dongen at the team bus.

"The parcours, from Karnemelkbeekstraat, then it's still a long way to the final, long straight roads, with crosswinds, sometimes headwinds, and that makes in the end that Mathieu was almost caught back. But it was no weakness of Van der Poel."

Van der Poel has long had Van Aert's number at the Spring Classics, ever since their nailbiting sprint à deux at the 2020 Tour of Flanders. But perhaps with E3 already in the legs for the Dutchman, the Belgian can begin to turn the tide at In Flanders Fields and look to become Pogačar's main challenger come April 5.

How should Alpecin and Van der Poel assess E3?

Van der Poel conceded after the race that he had practically given up as he faltered and the chasers all but closed the gap, but it was his last undying effort to accelerate in the saddle – knowing that a sprint would result in certain defeat – that got him home in the end.

Wind the clock back 12 months, and Van der Poel sat in the same winner's press conference chair with visible signs of a cold that would eventually play a role at Flanders nine days after the fact. But in 2026, despite winning in not nearly as dominant a fashion, he appeared relatively fresh, albeit visibly wrapped up from the cold temperatures, so it must be considered that Van der Poel could only be building in shape for the big event.

He also readdressed the finger injury he suffered in the pre-Cipressa crash at San Remo, confirming it was the legs, not his hands, that made the difference when Pogačar and Tom Pidcock eventually went away from him, so that should play no part at De Ronde either.

"It's OK, like I said before the race, it's just really annoying, but the pain is already way better, so yes, it's just an annoying thing, but I can race with it," said the Dutchman.

"I think [San Remo] was more a thing of the legs than the hands. I mean, Tadej was really strong and, of course, he also crashed quite hard, so I think he was just the strongest that day."

What E3 should serve as for him is somewhat of a reminder for Alpecin that their man isn't invincible, and that it isn't just Pogačar who can make him look human; in almost overdoing it with the effort he made for glory on Friday, he did that to himself.

While true, it seems clear that Van der Poel was on a mission for something aside from victory in his solo pursuit, with domestique Edward Planckaert telling Sporza after the race that when his leader caught the chasing breakaway group he was in, "I saw his face. I knew he wouldn't stay with us for long."

With Planckaert's group in the rear-view mirror, he set out to catch the early break, with Stan Dewulf (Decathlon CMA CGM) the last rider to get dropped with 42km to go. He was shocked to see Van der Poel setting off into the unknown solo headwind effort that he did. Just what sort of stimulus was the former three-time Flanders winner looking for?

"In the final, it was mostly a headwind," he told Nieuwsblad. "Mathieu took a lot of risks by going solo from so far out in a finish with a wind that wasn't in his favour. And yet, he finished it off."

Last year, Van der Poel and the whole field were well beaten by a rampant Pogačar at Flanders, who has made the Oude Kwaremont his launch pad. While he dominated everyone at E3 in that run-in 12 months ago, and despite claiming that his tactics were wholly instinctive, perhaps subconsiously, Van der Poel knows that it is going to take more than he's had at his three previous Ronde victories to take a record fourth and stand alone at the top of the winner's leaderboard.

E3 has long served as the dress rehearsal for De Ronde, as it's raced on many of the same climbs, and has since 1998 been won by the rider who went on to win the Tour of Flanders nine times.

In 2026, however, it has likely propelled Pogačar as the heavy favourite for the Flemish centrepiece, and left its winner needing to show more at In Flanders Fields, a race he has never won from three attempts. If Van der Poel shows more signs of being human on Sunday, Flanders could go from the two-horse race it's being billed as to another Pogačar foregone conclusion.

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