Where João Almeida could win the 2025 Vuelta a España and why Jonas Vingegaard needs to win it emphatically – GC Analysis

The GC stalemate between João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) has continued at the Vuelta a España, with two brutal days in Asturias bringing only a two-second gain for the Portuguese rider, and that's only with bonus seconds.

Even with 338.6km, almost 8,000 metres of elevation gain, and six categorised climbs on stages 13 and 14 to l'Angliru and La Farrapona, only centimetres separated them at both finish lines, with Almeida winning the former and Vingegaard crossing the line ahead for second place behind the solo break winner on the latter.

If Sunday's medium mountain stage in Galicia goes the way it looks – to another breakaway – then the pair of favourites will enter the final week with only 48 seconds separating them. It's close, yes, and still open, with either man able to end up with red by the time we reach Madrid, but if Almeida does stay in second, then the comments he made six days ago on stage 9 will ring loudly in the ears of UAE.

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"I missed a little bit, maybe my teammates today," Almeida said, after losing 30 seconds – the bulk of his deficit – to Vingegaard at Valdezcaray on stage 9. He cited the "Surprise factor" as a reason why he'd not got on Vingegaard's wheel when he surged away, but couldn't help admit that "nobody was with me in the end, so it is what it is", at the finish.

It seemed as though it would prove a moot point, with the brutal climbing left to climb at this year's Vuelta surely set to separate the two men further – but the closer we get to madrid, and those 30 seconds look more valuable by the stage, with Almeida improving, or at least holding his level, but still being unable to distance Vingegaard.

Questioning UAE's tactics is obviously difficult given they've now won seven stages, 50% of the 14 taken on, and more than half of the finishes available due to the cancelled finale in Bilbao on stage 11. But you question how they raced on stage 9, a day they didn't win, and one that could prove to be the deciding factor between losing to Vingegaard and not.

Where can Almeida win the Vuelta from now on?

The equation for UAE isn't too complicated, with a gap under a minute, meaning only one good day for Almeida coinciding with a poor one for Vingegaard could bring them red, but that requires the latter, something which doesn't happen very often, to arrive at some point between stages 16 and 20.

A closer look at the profile makes three options stand out: stage 17, stage 18 and stage 20, on a brutally tough finish up to Alto de El Morredero (8.8km at 9.7%), the 27.2km individual time trial in Vallodolid, and the final mountain stage to Bola del Mundo (12.3km at 8.6%).

Almeida's diesel engine and gradual build-up method of attacking climbs make the single mountain finish on stage 17 seem unlikely, but with that in the legs, he could really thrive in the race against the clock a day later, with his form tending to stay consistent as races go on.

Head-to-head, the stars are in favour of Almeida against Vingegaard in ITTs, four to three, though performing better in two out of three Tour de France time trials probably holds more weight than Almeida outperforming the Dane in the 2018 Le Triptyque des Monts et Chateaux stage 3a ITT.

Almeida did beat Vingegaard in the most recent Tour, though, which was one example of a recent bad day for the two-time Tour winner, and even still, the gap was only seven seconds between them, so a 48-second swing on next Thursday's mostly flat test would be a big shock.

However, victory and a small gain could put Almeida within touching distance by the time the race reaches Bola del Mundo, and things will be decided once and for all before heading to Madrid for a sprint finale.

4,226 metres of elevation will punctuate that brutal stage, all packed into 165.6km, where gaps could be massive, or an opportunistic raid could be launched. But UAE will be hoping to either be ahead or only a matter of seconds behind at that point, where Almeida could then grind away at Vingegaard and utilise the advantage he has of having not raced six weeks at Grand Tours this season.

But Vingegaard has shown he can ride two Grand Tours in season, finishing first at the Tour and second at the Vuelta in 2023, behind teammate Sepp Kuss, and he'll be looking for a swap of those results come next week, having lost the 2025 Tour to Almeida's teammate Tadej Pogačar.

UAE's Sports Manager Matxin Joxean Fernández suggested that they won't want to wait and leave it fully up until Bola del Mundo to try and overtake Vingegaard in the fight for red, but with the duo of brutal Asturian stages bringing no separation and most of the third week looking unlikely to breed big gaps between them, that may end up being the case.

Almeida is running out of time to win the Vuelta a España, but he can only continue to apply the pressure he has done and hope it eventually cracks Vingegaard. By nature, he can't surge flamboyantly put of the saddle as his teammate Pogačar can, but he is a winner – shown in his three one-week WorldTour stage race victorous this season alone – though winning a Grand Tour is a whole different beast.

What does Vingegaard need to do?

The simple answer here is to defend, of course, and staunchly, as he already has these past two stages and ever since earning his third stint in the red jersey. But from the sense that before this Vuelta it seemed like the Dane almost needed to take victory, emphatically too, and needed to win a Grand Tour again after two consecutive, significant defeats at the Tour at the hands of the World Champion, it feels like he needs to put it to bed.

Almeida is a top GC rider, make no mistake about that, but as the only man to rival and beat Pogačar at a GT in the past five years, and by doing it twice, Vingegaard would've been thought of as a cut above anyone lining up to start this Vuelta, and the massive favourite for red.

But only having a 48-second lead by the near-end of the second week doesn't quite represented what was expected, especially after his instinct on stage 9 took him into the lead and nearing a minute lead over the likes of Almeida.

Kicking on as the race headed to Asturias seemed likely, as did victory up the Angliru, which he missed out on two years ago behind then teammate Primoź Roglič, but he was resigned to just riding in Almeida's wheel and hanging on without the legs to counter. A day later, at Farrapona, he did the same – followed – and though he won the sprint for second, only clawed back two of the four bonus seconds he lost a day prior.

If Vingegaard is to move the needle and deliver a statement victory at the Vuelta, which can give him the needed confidence to catapult back towards a third victory at the Tour and defeat Pogačar in years to come, then the summit finish to Alto de El Morredero, the 27.2km individual time trial in Vallodolid, and the final mountain stage to Bola del Mundo need to be his.

Red looks likely for Vingegaard come Madrid, but its shine will be dampened if his winning gap is but less than a minute to Almeida, in no disrespect to the Portuguese rider – he could yet come back and defeat the seemingly unfazable Dane, and that would be the ultimate statement for UAE – if Pogačar's climbing domestique, too, was able to beat his biggest rival at a Grand Tour.

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