First or second in every Grand Tour that he has started since 2020, it's not hard to see why Jonas Vingegaard lines up at the 109th edition of the Giro d’Italia as the overwhelming favourite.
Compared to the other team leaders and riders who have overall ambitions, he climbs better than all of them, his time trial performance is strongest outside of the dedicated specialists and finally, his level of concentration and race craft is second to none. Racing incidents aside, the surprise won’t be if he wins, it’ll be by how much and how many days he spends in the maglia rosa as race leader.
It sounds simple enough, but three-week races always have a surprise or two – though it’ll have to be a monumental one to upset the expectations that Jonas Vingegaard has on his shoulders right now.
The real interest in this Giro is what happens behind Vingegaard once he puts himself on top of the GC standings, because each of the contenders come with baggage of some sort that has or will compromise their ambitions.
Giulio Pellizzari, Egan Bernal and Adam Yates appear to be the clearest choices who will be involved in the contest for the remaining podium positions given current form, however each rider has different issues to deal with.
Pellizzari is the rising star of Italian stage racing and is carrying the home nation's hopes and therefore, of these three, will be under the most scrutiny. He has been climbing brilliantly which is a major plus given the number of mountain top finishes but his time trial is a weakness. Not that I expect it to be disastrous, but it will add to the pressure he will face, with one long time trial on the cards on stage 10.
Egan Bernal is finally coming back to being competitive at the top level. On the plus side for his podium challenge is resilience, experience and he rides like a proper leader. No lapses of concentration or overestimations of his abilities and though his climbing may be less explosive nowadays, he can still grind out a strong rhythm. The long flat time trial will be a concern and he could be worried by the consequences of past injuries.
Then there’s Adam Yates who has been on super domestique duties at UAE Team Emirates-XRG for so long that stepping up to being team leader is almost a novelty. Climbing-wise, the Bury man ought to be at the level of Pellizzari and slightly above Bernal, however it could also be the other way round and no-one would be surprised. Same with his time trial, it’ll either be good or below average for a GC contender and that’s the problem. Which Adam Yates is going to turn up? The one who stays focused every day or the one who gets caught out now and then? With the responsibility of leadership I’d expect he pays attention and rides a good GC race but one average day and he will be stage hunting instead.
The next tier of contenders
On the 'hopeful' tier of the top placings hierarchy are a mixed bunch of decent riders. Thymen Arensman looks like the strongest bet of a trio that includes Felix Gall and Jai Hindley. If Arensman can keep Bernal in sight on most of the climbs then he ought to finish ahead of Gall and Hindley in Rome as he will trounce them in the time trial and more importantly survive the stresses of the opening week better than the two climbers. I would not be surprised to see either Felix Gall or Jai Hindley win a stage but lately neither have been consistent enough to be a sure top-five finish as they will both struggle in the TT, and likely have a decidedly average day or two.
Next is a quartet made up of three English speakers and a Spaniard. I wonder how long it will take for Enric Mas to be aiming for sixth place on GC – it’s one of those standing jokes in the press room that he is riding on the front of a chase group to defend his position. The Movistar leader hasn’t been competitive yet this year and I don’t see that changing here. You might see him trying his luck in the break when he’s lost ten minutes but do not expect him to be the one who survives to the end.
Derek Gee-West, on the other hand, could well be a solid top-10 GC racer. He is good at taking opportunities and Visma aren’t going to be controlling everyone in the final week which means riders like the Canadian will be allowed in the early moves. Gee-West is one of the few strong enough to be on the attack several days in a row and that could well pose problems for those in direct competition with him. In the third week there are often spectacular gains and losses in the sixth to tenth spots as fatigue builds and leaders run out of teammates.
Moving on to the two Australians riding for the overall classification, Michael Storer of Tudor Pro Cycling and Ben O’Connor, leader at Jayco-AlUla. One thing is for sure: Ben O’Connor isn’t going to be allowed to take five or ten minutes lead by infiltrating an escape. Those days are over for him and so things are markedly more difficult in the current situation. He hasn’t been climbing in the front group and he won’t be allowed any freedom until he is fifteen minutes down which may well be his situation by the second week. His resilience is a plus though, and if the weather is bad then he becomes much more of a threat and more likely to move up the GC. I just don’t see him at the level he enjoyed before.
Unlike Michael Storer, who has had a resurrection of sorts and he has one of the outsiders, Mathys Rondel, alongside him as support. I think Storer will be one to watch once the hierarchy seems established and the attacking starts between the riders just off the podium. There is a question mark on his consistency and definitely on his positioning in the peloton but his form has been getting better and better. A top 10 spot for Tudor would be a very good result for them and is a distinct possibility.
Thinking of the mountains classification I would be looking at Giulio Ciccone of Lidl-Trek and for the points jersey, a spell in the lead of that competition for Dylan Groenewegen, but there are a lot of mountaintop finishes for the big sprinters to survive on the way to Rome.
It might be that we see a 'GC Kuss' as a tactical move from Visma-Lease a Bike to ease the pressure and podium duties for Jonas Vingegaard but one thing is for sure: there will be a few new names that emerge over the 21 stages and plenty of drama.
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