Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico are traditionally the spring's most important Grand Tour preparation races, but do they actually tell us anything?

We're currently in the midst of what could probably be considered the busiest week of racing of the year. Now that we've done away with the clash between the Tour de France and Giro d'Italia Women, the week of Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico can probably stake a pretty good claim on that crown.

Despite murmurs a few years ago that the UCI wanted to put an end to WorldTour races overlapping, that rule is yet to come to fruition, and so the busy week of Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico lives on as it always has, with two majorly important races happening every day this week and all the major stars in action.

Except, are they actually? This week used to mean literally every top stage racing star was in action, and that would, in theory, tell us a lot about how the Giro d'Italia and Tour de France were going to go, but in reality, I'm not so sure that's the case anymore. Is this actually crunch week, or is it just a wildly busy week that we might not actually learn that much from?

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Despite being squeezed in the middle of the Classics season – dating back to a time where stage racers and Classics men were actually different riders, rather than the same names just dominating both – Paris-Nice has long been seen as something of a Tour de France test race. Not to the extent of the Critérium du Dauphiné, but it was an early-season test on French roads and Tour contenders would often be lured into action.

Similarly with Tirreno-Adriatico, often a bit less climb-packed than Paris-Nice, but usually won by a rider who would go on to be a protagonist in the Giro or Tour. So we certainly have the feeling that the events of this week are going to teach us something, and drop some hints towards Grand Tour season.

Rather than just work on presumptions, though, I wanted to look at the actual stats, and I was surprised. In the last 20 editions, the winner of Paris-Nice has gone on to win the Tour de France in the same year four – or maybe six – times (depending on how you want to treat Alberto Contador and Floyd Landis, who won both, but were stripped of their Tour results). On every other occasion but one, the winner didn't even finish on the podium, with Tadej Pogačar the only rider to win Paris-Nice and then finish second or third at the Tour in 2023.

The Tirreno winner has won the Tour in the same year twice in the last 20 years, and twice won the Giro, with two other podium finishes. So the correlation is decidedly low, lower than the Dauphiné-Tour relationship, and lower than probably a lot of us think.

And yet, every year, when we see all the big Tour and Giro contenders lining up this week, we convince ourselves once more that this time we're going to get answers. How could we not, with so many top riders in action? Jonas Vingegaard, Juan Ayuso and Oscar Onley in France, Antonio Tiberi, Isaac del Toro and Richard Carapaz in Italy, we're going to find out how they're going to do for the rest of the year, right?

Sounds right, but history clearly tells us that we won't. Indeed, history tells us that the winners this week are less likely to finish on the podiums of the Giro and Tour – though for the excitement of those races, let's hope that isn't true.

There's also the small matter of riders who aren't riding either race this week, namely Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel. Vingegaard's late inclusion in Paris-Nice may have tricked us this year, but in reality, it's common for the biggest names to lay a bit low at this time of the year, and just generally in this era, the most successful riders race less and train more.

With Pogačar, and to a lesser extent Evenepoel, there really is a limit to how much this week is going to tell us about the bigger races to come. We might see how some of the contenders stack up against each other, but the real question is how everyone will compare to the indomitable Pogačar, and we're not going to be any more enlightened about that at the end of this week.

Even in the case of those who are there, everything needs to be taken with a healthy pinch of salt: it's only March, for starters, the courses are very condensed, and many riders are only in their second or third race with their new teams. Perhaps even more so than usual, this week is a test, not a dress rehearsal. Even as the stage races ramp up after the Classics, I'd posit that we won't have any real answers about any of the Grand Tours before the end of May.

All of that said, these two twin races must be important for so many big names to be in action. Primarily, they're still prestigious races that riders want to win and have on their palmarès – especially those who may not be capable of a Grand Tour podium finish this year – and for all that riders won't be peaking right now, they will be testing themselves, their teams and each other in the tough stages.

What's more, there are a few more specific things to be looking out for this week. The time trialling in both races is going to be telling, both Tirreno's opening TT – which showed us that Filippo Ganna is still on top, Thymen Arensman is a real threat, and Antonio Tiberi is becoming a more complete package – and Paris-Nice's team time trial.

With a team time trial opening the Tour in Barcelona in July, TTTs have taken additional prominence this season. We've already seen one tester at Challenge Mallorca, and we'll see another at the Dauphiné. It may be only one stage at the Tour, but it could be make or break for some riders, so teams are putting a lot into getting the TTT right this year. Tuesday's stage in France will tell us a lot about who has weaknesses in that discipline, and who stands to gain.

There are also narratives to follow around the non-GC riders, be that sprinters or Classics riders. The sprints in both Paris-Nice and Tirreno are going to cement the sprinting hierarchy for 2026, and expose who is still not living up to expectations – Jasper Philipsen, I'm looking at you, especially if you can't pull off a result this week.

There are also several top Classics riders in action, filling a stopgap between Strade Bianche and Milan-San Remo, and although we've already seen a lot at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and Strade, there's still more racing to come, and riders who may be riding into strength, which we could see this week. Wout van Aert, Ben Healy, Paul Magnier, Laurence Pithie and Mathias Vacek are all riders worth taking a closer look at, but they could be overshadowed by more Mathieu van der Poel brilliance.

So this week remains an odd one. We'll all be glued to our screens, cramming in double racing every day and dissecting every move of the top GC riders, but in reality, what happens here won't mean much, and it's actually all the other riders for whom this week might be more important.

Watch and analyse away – I know I will – but don't be fooled into thinking this week holds the key for this year's biggest races. Fortunately, all of that is still to come.