Three weeks ago, when we were deep in the build-up to the 2025 Giro d'Italia, there were a few names that stood out as favourites. Primož Roglič, Juan Ayuso, Antonio Tiberi. Some even thought we were gearing up for a two-horse race between Roglič and Ayuso, such was their superiority. Other names were gracefully included in contenders lists, but with the caveat that they'd be racing for, at best, the top five.
Fast forward to now, however, and the protagonists of this Giro are names that we were told were outsiders or top 10 fodder when we headed to Albania – or, in Isaac del Toro's case, not even part of the conversation.
After stage 16, Del Toro leads the general classification, and after a week of tug-of-war with Ayuso, he's now undisputed leader at UAE Team Emirates-XRG. They're going to ride for him, and he very much could win this Giro. A rider who no one touted to even make the top 10 a few short weeks ago.
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Losing a huge chunk of time, Ayuso is now definitively out of the GC fight. And those names we expected to be his rivals? Roglič abandoned on Tuesday after already conceding that his GC fight was over, and Tiberi is now four minutes down after a difficult day. Not out necessarily, but hardly in the driving seat.
As for those riders we thought would be just fighting for the top five or top 10, well, they're the ones making this race, looking the strongest, and ultimately fighting for pink.
Behind Del Toro, Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike) is in second, looking the best he has for a long time, then it's Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) ahead of Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), whilst on stage 16, Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling) looks as strong as any GC contender.
For some, the loss of the likes of Roglič and Ayuso from the GC fight might be a negative – it would have been good to see two riders of their stature go head to head, and maybe no one dreams of a Derek Gee vs Michael Storer showdown, but why not? Surely the racing is more exciting than the names on the results, and really, the way this race is panning out is more exciting and less predictable than we ever could have hoped.
Think back to this stage in last year's Giro d'Italia. Tadej Pogačar had just taken his fifth stage win of the race, and he was already over seven minutes ahead of his nearest rival. The race was over, completely over. A few more shuffles around the top 10 would come, but ultimately, the final week was just an exercise in confirming what we'd already known pre-race. There were good moments, but it was not a thriller.
This year, Del Toro has been in pink for eight stages, but it's very clear that his grip on it is very much open to attack, sitting just 26 seconds ahead of Yates in second, and 31 ahead of Carapaz in third.
On Tuesday, his rivals were strong enough and motivated enough to attack, and Del Toro was strong enough to battle to the line with enough time to just hold onto his pink jersey. This is exactly what we want racing to be – riders attacking, not waiting, and others fighting back, not just capitulating.
On paper, the GC order may not have changed too dramatically on stage 16, but the gaps have all narrowed, and ultimately, there's been a power shift. Roglič and Ayuso are gone, Gee and Storer have stepped up, and the top four are looking like the riders who are going to contest the win, though plenty of the top 10 could still be up there too.
'Best of the rest' shining on the Grand Tour stage
What's even more exciting than having several riders still in contention for the win, though, is the kind of riders they are. Yates and Carapaz are former Grand Tour winners, yes, but they didn't start this race as huge favourites, nor do they have teams who can control like UAE or Red Bull may have. Along with Gee and the ascendant Storer, the protagonists in this race and riders who have been underdogs so far, and that makes for scrappier, heartier riding. Real racing.
Even Del Toro is an underdog of sorts. Of course, he is in pink and flanked by an extremely strong UAE team, but he's spent a week trying to fight for his place as a leader, something he didn't ever expect, and the Mexican has shown time and time again he has that attacking, exciting spirit when it comes to racing. There's no one in the top five who is just going to suffocate this race, or sit back and pace instead of chasing down attacks, and that's refreshing.
Stage 16 has shaken up the GC, but the most exciting thing is that there's still so much to come this week. There's another mountain stage on Wednesday, and then two more on Friday and Saturday, concluding with a daunting Colle delle Finestre stage that is sure to decide this Giro.
Unlike the final week of last year's Giro, where the result was a foregone conclusion, stage 16 has shown us that even our best pre-race predictions can soon mean nothing. Moreover, it's shown that the riders are keen to attack and to race, and that if they do, they will be rewarded.
In some Grand Tours in the last few years, riders have been scared to risk what they already have, preferring to ride to Rome or Paris conservatively instead of trying to make a move that could see them fall down the rankings instead of climb. But here, so many riders have so much more to gain than to lose, and unlike the big riders who might feel unmotivated about a podium finish, these underdogs are going to give it all they've got to gain as much as they can.
In an era that's been defined by impressive but nonetheless predictable performances, this Giro is giving the 'best of the rest' time to shine, and they might just provide the most exciting racing for a long time.
