After the Grande Partenza in Bulgaria and the subsequent long transfer to Italy, for a lot of riders, reaching the second rest day of the Giro d'Italia will have been an objective in itself. Surviving the bad weather, the nervous peloton, and the related incidents that come with those circumstances depends on luck as much as it does form.
With a quartet of teams dominating proceedings, there hasn’t been much sharing of the spoils.
Visma-Lease a Bike have the general classification under control, even if they don't yet have the pink jersey. Soudal-QuickStep and Paul Magnier are the fastest if it’s a sprint day, and XDS Astana have been the opportunists pouncing despite not being everyone’s first picks.
Then there’s UAE Team Emirates, cast in a new role following the dramatic loss of their designated leader, Adam Yates, and two of the trusty lieutenants, Jay Vine and Marc Soler. Their remaining focus has turned to the daily business of racing without any GC or other classification thoughts and you have to say they have done that rather successfully.
The all-important time trial
Looking at the stages in the coming week, what can we expect is quite often going to be more of the same but with added twists in each of the jersey classifications.
If Jonas Vingegaard doesn’t take over the maglia rosa from Afonso Eulálio in Tuesday's 42km time trial then he definitely will next Saturday when the race finishes at Pila. Climbing Blockhaus was about managing the wind-affected parts and being patient but the final ascent on stage 14 is pure climber territory.
Even an excellent Felix Gall is going to cede time to Vingegaard but in defence of the Austrian it’s an opportunity to redress the losses he will surely incur in the flat TT on Tuesday.
Assuming Vingegaard has the GC all but sewn up, the podium places are an interesting mix of who can climb and who can do a half-decent solo effort.
Tuesday’s 42-kilometre run has Filippo Ganna winning from Jonas Vinegaard and then a complete lottery between the current top 10 on GC. Thymen Arensman is the only one of the podium hopefuls who has any pedigree in the TT discipline – everyone else is in the decidedly average to below-par category – and so the Netcompany-Ineos' Dutchman could put down a first deposit on the coveted podium places.
How far can Eulálio go?
The only real unknown is the maglia rosa Eulálio, who might surprise himself again and add to the worries of those GC riders he is in amongst for the first time. Pink power has washed over Bahrain Victorious and their racing has been transformed as a result.
It’s not fantasy to see Eulálio in the top five by the end of the race as he’s learning quickly that riding for the GC is about producing your efforts when it counts, not spending energy in the wind when a teammate will do that gladly, and basing your race on your direct rivals. He had been shadowing Giulio Pellizzari but I think he can aim higher than that.
Moving onto the frustrations of the homegrown guys at Lidl Trek, Giulio Ciccone in the pink jersey was one of his best moments and then he was the unfortunate victim of circumstances on the day to Potenza where Eulálio took over, so he saved his energy for the next target, stage 8. Decathlon CMA CGM turned that into a GC fight and Ciccone got beaten up again and now he’s taking it personally.
He won’t find a shoulder to cry on if he’s rooming with Jonathan Milan because last year’s points classification winner is clutching at straws to be competitive with Paul Magnier. A big sprinter going in the break of the day to snaffle a few points is as rare as a Giro d’Italia without drama. The rest day might be a chance for a bit of therapy to calm the nerves and rebuild a bit of confidence.
But for now everything is going swimmingly for the race favourite, Vingegaard, which is evident in that the only polemic affecting him is whether he will or won’t wear the organisation’s blue skinsuit of mountains classification leader in Tuesday's time trial.
He’s a pretty clued-up person in terms of worldview outside of the cycling bubble so with that in mind I think he will recognise Castelli's role in supplying the jerseys as the official sponsor, even if theoretically it’s slightly slower than his team-issue skinsuit. He’s shown before that fairness and respect matter to him.
You could say he is an assassin with a conscience, though Giulio Ciccone might have a more colourful description if his personal fortunes don’t improve.
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