Vingegaard's textbook climbing tactics and a final week full of opportunities – Philippa York's Giro d'Italia analysis

The only predictables in this Giro d'Italia seem to be that Filippo Ganna will win any time trial – stage 10 at nearly 55kph was as dominant as it gets – and Jonas Vingegaard will take the mountain-top finish if the chance is there.

It’s meagre pickings for everyone else, which is why the fight to be in any breakaway has turned into a proper battle each day, and it’s quite telling that there’s only been one day when the peloton allowed the attackers a large advantage.

Alberto Bettiol dispatching Andreas Leknessund on the final climb on stage 13 was the perfect illustration that, even in the front group when it turns more tactical, you still need every bit of remaining power to pull off the victory.

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The race organisers' decision to entice Vingegaard to the Giro by having fewer brutal mountain stages in the second half of the race has produced more excitement and more opportunities for those willing and able to get involved.

Alec Segaert’s win into Novi Ligure on stage 12 has to have added to the feeling in the peloton that if it’s not a proper GC day then anything is possible. That’s why Movistar and Uno-X keep throwing resources in, because they realise that once you eliminate the sprinters, no-one else, other than Visma-Lease a Bike, have the manpower to redress the situation.

Jonathan Milan winning in Milan was supposed to be the redemption for his previous sprint frustrations and that didn’t happen due to a mixture of Lidl-Trek underestimating those in the break and the finishing circuit being too much of an assault course to get properly organised.

It’s a storyline that stands in complete contrast to last year, when they won six stages and led the race with Mads Pedersen, who went on to win the ciclamino jersey. The Giro has been a major part of the team's focus and this edition is not going their way at all. Ciccone is a point in hand; annoyed with his luck and lack of freedom, he looks like a man on the verge of a meltdown.

The battle for the podium and the white jersey

Which brings me to the heat of the podium fight. Jonas Vingegaard is a level above all his rivals uphill and executing the Visma team plan with impressive ease. Attacking 4-5km from the finish is textbook climbing tactics and it lets him ease off in the final few hundred metres so even his recovery starts from a better place compared to those behind.

Now he is showing no signs of any illness, the penultimate stage to Piancavallo has his name written all over it, unless he decides to let Davide Piganzoli have his chance of a stage win. That tactic is a distinct possibility because the young Italian is putting the other team leaders in trouble when he sets the pace and if he is spared that task then anything could happen.

What does seem within reach for Piganzoli is the white jersey of best young rider, as Afonso Eulálio is understandably showing some vulnerability heading into the last mountains. Even with the help and experience of Damiano Caruso, keeping the lead in that classification is going to be difficult. Nevertheless, Eulálio has been one of the revelations of the Giro. A top 10 placing was a goal that Bahrain Victorious earmarked for Santiago Buitrago but a top-six for Eulálio would only have existed in their dreams.

Felix Gall is still looking most likely for the second spot on the podium and I doubt he will play with the fire that is trying to follow Vingegaard’s attacks, now that he’s learned if he does then he’s going to step into a zone where he gets burned.

Thymen Arensman and Jai Hindley are sticking to their known limits and that’s the duo that Gall has to watch out for, rather than worrying about following Vingegaard. Eluálio is sliding and Derek Gee-West is hurting, so it's a fight between those three riders for the two remaining podium spots, with the white jersey the other immediate point of interest for the GC group.

The points classification has developed an interesting twist, too, with Jhonatan Narváez closing the gap to Paul Magnier. As only the final day in Rome looks to be a nailed-on sprint day, we may well see Magnier's Soudal-QuickStep team trying to limit the opportunities that the Narváez has to go in the break and collect valuable points that way.

Five days left, one sprint in Rome, two mountain stages, and two more open days leaves plenty of room for the attackers; there’s hard work ahead.

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