The fascination of the three amigos GC battle - Philippa York Vuelta a España analysis

The 2025 Vuelta a España begins in Italy on Saturday and includes a mountain finish on stage two to Limone Piemonte, but I expect we'll need seven days of racing to find out if Jonas Vingegaard can live up to his billing as the number one favourite.

The new, more explosive Jonas will be well suited to the steep ramps that the final Grand Tour of the season always serves up, but the mountain stages in the Pyrenees will reveal any cracks in his and everyone else's GC armoury. The battle for overall victory will then play out in week two and week three, hopefully lasting all the way until stage 20 atop Bola del Mundo near Madrid.

As far as individual capabilities are concerned, the Dane has an edge on his direct Vuelta rivals when it comes to climbing and time trialling. He might even outsprint the other leaders if it comes down to a tough finish. His two Tour de France victories and his fights with Tadej Pogačar put Vingegaard a level above everyone, but the absence of Pogačar will not make victory and the next three weeks of racing a formality. It won’t be for a number of reasons.

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Something unexpected always happens at the Vuelta, trust me, I know from first-hand experience.

The fuss about GC Kuss isn’t that long ago, and it could happen again, perhaps this time at UAE. A surprise challenger usually emerges at the Vuelta, as best illustrated by the performances of Ben O’Connor in 2024. The Australian has the knack of sneaking into an escape that shakes up the overall standings. He could do it again this year.

There’s also bound to be some new, or even renewed, GC talents who came into the race with few mentions. The Vuelta is the third Grand Tour of the season, when riders are tired, about to change teams or looking to save their careers. Its unpredictability is its beauty.

The main prediction topic, at least pre-race, is a familiar one: Visma-Lease a Bike will again be pitted against UAE Team Emirates-XRG in a battle for overall victory and Grand Tour bragging rights.

Without the presence of Pogačar, Visma find themselves in the reverse of the situation they had at the Tour de France. Now it’s their turn to have one leader and one simple strategy.

Vingegaard is the only designated leader, while UAE have João Almeida and Juan Ayuso as joint leaders. Theoretically, either Matteo Jorgensen or Sepp Kuss could be bumped up to joint leader status, but I think both know their role here is that of teammate and not the Plan B if it all goes wrong.

In a similar twist of circumstances, team strengths have changed sides, too. At the Tour, Visma had the best squad, but they faced the strongest rider in Pogačar. Here it’s the other way round. Vingegaard is the favourite, has a decent team, but UAE have an armada that can ride all day, every day. It will be fascinating to see how their battle plays out.

The big thing in favour of the Dutch squad is their unity, despite the GC Kuss polemic in 2023. Wout van Aert burying himself so that Simon Yates would win the Giro d’Italia on the penultimate day being the latest reminder of their collective spirit.

Almeida and Ayuso - Teammates or rivals?

Over at UAE, when Tadej Pogačar is not present then individual ambitions can quickly become apparent and cause tension.

There’s been lots of press concerning the relationship between Ayuso and Almeida ever since the arm waving and heated words on the slopes of the Galibier in the 2024 Tour. UAE try to spin a united line, with no rivalry, but the differences in temperament and riding style suggest their co-existence is a difficult situation to manage.

This will be the first time this season Almeida and Ayuso have raced together, and I don’t think that is entirely a coincidence. Keeping them apart seems to have been deliberate. In person and on paper.

The Spaniard lines up wearing number one and Almeida is at the other end of the list with number eight. Maybe that’s a random occurrence, and sure it’s Ayuso’s home Tour but João is ahead of him not only alphabetically and in the UCI rankings.

Egos and ambitions need careful massaging at this level and this is the kind of detail that some riders notice.

It will also have come to Almeida’s attention that back in May, at the Giro, his co-leader wasn’t exactly the stellar teammate to Issac del Toro when he needed assistance. For someone like the Portuguese rider, who always fulfils his support duties, any hint of selfishness is going to have him gnashing his teeth. I can’t see them getting through the Vuelta without incident.

Ayuso is the thoroughbred that requires pampering, constant reassurance and repositioning in the peloton to be at his best. Almeida, though not always in the right place at the right time during races, is more reliable and never stops fighting until he is truly broken. It’s the classic thoroughbred vs the prize fighter, so I won’t be that surprised if the internal politics at UAE become public at some point. Get the popcorn ready.

Chances for Bernal, Pidcock, Landa and Ciccone

Outside of the Visma versus UAE battle, or perhaps because of it, there could be lots of opportunities for the likes of Egan Bernal, Tom Pidcock and Mikel Landa.

Although all are former Sky riders, only the Colombian remains with the British squad. He’s arguably under the most pressure as Ineos really need a GC presence in Grand Tours again. It'll be fascinating to see if Bernal can fight for a place on the final podium.

Pidcock has greater freedom at Q36.5, even if he says it’s a test of his Grand Tour capabilities. As long as he wins a stage, then it's job done.

With Remco Evenepoel leaving Soudal-Quickstep next year, Mikel Landa is again free to deliver a dismal time trial and then make a spectacular comeback in the mountains in the final week.

Not many people are talking about Giulio Ciccone, which is understandable when Mads Pedersen is part of the Lidl-Trek line-up. However, the Italian is in good form and the Vuelta is a race which often rewards the aggressive if he opts to ride the GC. The start in Italy and the flat stage to Novara on Saturday suits Pedersen, but the first mountain finish and the early team time trial in Spain could then see Ciccone in the red jersey of leader for a spell.

At least for a week or so, until the high Pyrenees, when Vingegaard will surely ascend to dominance and the Visma-UAE battle really begins.

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