Who will close out the Australian summer of racing on top at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race? – Analysing the favourites

WorldTour racing resumes this weekend as the Australian summer of international racing draws to a close at the men's and women's Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, with the women's race arriving first on Saturday and the men's one day later in Geelong.

As Victoria plays host to some of the top riders in the world, the 1km Challambra Crescent Climb will once again be the highlight of the 186km and 145km courses, before the fast downhill run to the waterfront finish.

Both defending champions from 2025 will be back to try and reclaim their crowns: Jayco AlUla's Mauro Schmid, who won with a well-timed late solo attack, and Ally Wollaston (FDJ United-Suez), who won from a sprint.

Even though the typical form-indicating Surf Coast Classic had to be cancelled due to extreme weather and evolving bushfires in the area, the Cadel’s Criteriums replaced it a day later, providing a pre-race look at some of the Geelong field.

Sam Welsford and Martina Fidanza took the victories and will no doubt be among those hoping to carry their form into the main event; however, as both are pure sprinters, the course's difficulty may be a step too far for their characteristics.

UAE Team Emirates-XRG would have been the heavy men's favourites, but they won't have their full-strength team, with Jay Vine – although he still won the Tour Down Under – breaking his wrist, and Jhonatan Narváez suffering several vertebral fractures.

Those in winning form from the Tour Down Under, such as Matthew Brennan, Ally Wollaston and Noemi Rüegg, will be eyeing up a successful end to their Australian trip, too. But even more riders will be hoping to capitalise on their final chance for some glory in this long Australian block.

With the key climb's difficulty, punchy riders always have a strong chance on this course, but the 1km length means it's a tough job staying out in front even if you distance everyone on the uphill. Cooperation will be key, but the attacks will no doubt come thick and fast.

The unpredictability of the course allows for a wide range of contenders at the first men's and second women's one-day WorldTour race of the season, but we've combed through the start lists and picked out our favourites to watch for the weekend.

Ally Wollaston (FDJ United-Suez)

FDJ United-Suez's Ally Wollaston will start Saturday's women's race with a big target on her back as the heavy favourite to defend her title.

In flying form from the Tour Down Under, where she dominated the sprint finishes and took two victories, anyone toppling the quick Kiwi in the sprint would be big surprise.

The Challambra climb will be attacked by her rivals with dropping her as the aim, but Wollaston has shown her versatility over rising terrain, and can rely on full support from the French squad.

After all, it was luxury work from Elise Chabbey that allowed Wollaston to contest the sprint from the perfect position in the group last season, as the Swiss rider chased down the final few attacks.

Wollaston didn't win the criterium on Wednesday so there will be no repeat of the Surf Coast Classic-Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race double she did in 2025, but she still looks likely to repeat at the bigger event.

Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla)

The Defending champion showed that he is once again in top shape as the season opened Down Under, finishing second overall on the general classification at the TDU.

A well-timed, powerful move earned him a solo victory last year, and though he will be watched like a hawk this time around if he makes it into the first group over Challambra, Schmid's power and timing could prove unstoppable.

Team DS Mathew Hayman said after the final stage that he was pleased Schmid wasn't only using "brute force" to get results now, but actually utilising the team resources around him, and that could be key come Sunday's race.

The Swiss champion won't want a sprint, though, so make no mistake that he will all but certainly be on the attack in the finale if his legs allow him. With no obvious men's favourite, it's hard to look past the defending champion.

Noemi Rüegg (EF Education-Oatly)

Noemi Rüegg solidified her love of racing in Australia with a second successive GC victory at the Tour Down Under, and she'll be looking to go two better than her third-place finish from last year at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race.

A rising versatile star of the peloton, Rüegg has proved her worth across a number of different parcours. She was the top climber at the stage racing in Adelaide and then backed it up with second in the sprint at the TDU one-day race.

With the support of the world champion, Magdeleine Vallieres, too, EF Education-Oatly will be one of the big teams to beat at the weekend, and their two punchy leaders could be the key to getting away from Wollaston.

Laurence Pithie & Finn Fisher-Black (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)

Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe may not have won a stage at the Tour Down Under, but on an unpredictable course, their wealth of versatile options could be the best route to victory.

Kiwi duo Laurence Pithie and Finn-Fisher-Black are a strong combination for the climb and tactical finale, with the latter more than capable of getting over Challambra in a lead group, and the former being a previous winner just two years ago.

It was Pithie's first WorldTour win, and on that occasion, he was able to time his effort just right, even with riders attacking the final climb and rapid run for home, threading the needle in the sprint to win by a narrow margin.

Fisher-Black is also no slouch in a fast finish and would fancy himself against several of the purer climbers if a leading group does manage to stay away, and he would also have the card of Pithie being behind, which could allow him to sit at the back and save energy.

Pithie was also third last year from a small group and finished fourth in the Cadel's Criterium on Thursday, so he looks to have carried shape well ahead of the Aussie season finale.

Paula Blasi (UAE Team ADQ)

This section could have included three UAE Team ADQ riders in truth, such was their depth at the Tour Down Under, but Paula Blasi seems the best fit for the course and how racing could play out.

The young Spanish rider has already shown she can win at the WorldTour level, in the time trial of last year's Tour de Romandie, but she can also climb and sprint, so could well win from several avenues.

UAE were second to Wollaston last year through Karlijn Swinkels, but they will probably be hoping to ride the Kiwi off their wheels on Challambra through Mavi García, Dominika Włodarczyk and Blasi.

After their three against one against Rüegg on the final stage of the Tour Down Under, they will also be wanting to right the wrongs of that defeat with a dominant performance on Saturday.

Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike)

After his rapid rise to stardom, Matthew Brennan has only continued to impress for Visma-Lease a Bike, opening his 2026 account with victory on the undulating final stage of the Tour Down Under in Stirling, after several poor lead-outs had left him wondering what could have been in the first four road stages.

While the climb on the finale was much shallower than the gruelling ramp up Challambra Crescent, Brennan will probably be one of the chasers hoping things come back together for a sprint, but several things have to go just right for the Brit.

He's shown in the past how he can get over a big hill with enough sprint power in the tank – just look at his victories from the Volta a Catalunya or Tour de Romandie last year – but he may suffer from riders in a chase group not wanting to work for him if he doesn't make the front pack over the climb.

If it comes back for a sprint and the young Brit is there, it will be hard to bet against him, but it's all dependent on how he climbs.

Sarah Van Dam (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Visma-Lease a Bike new signing Sarah Van Dam will be one of those hoping to climb away from the likes of Wollaston as the race reaches Challambra.

The young Canadian made a flying start to her time on the Dutch team at the Tour Down Under, taking fifth on two of the three stages and fifth on the general classification.

As a rider with a snappy punch and the ability to get over some of the toughest hills, Van Dam can employ several different strategies depending on the finale.

But she's yet to take a professional win in her career, so upsetting the favourites at the weekend would require her to do something she hasn't managed yet in her career. Australia has long been a place for riders to burst into life with maiden successes, so perhaps Cadel's could bring Van Dam's.

Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM)

In a similar vein to Brennan, Tobias Lund Andresen (Decathlon CMA CGM) will be hoping for things to come back together after the rep up Challambra Crescent and a sprint to decide the day.

After his win on the opening day of the Tour Down Under, the Dane continued to impress, albeit without another win, taking podiums on the last three stages and winning the points classification.

There's an awful lot of power in the Decathlon line-up, notably Tord Gudmestad and Oscar Chamberlain, while the French team also has two capable climbers in Nicholas Prodhomme and Callum Scotson to try and stop cooperation in a lead group of climbers.

Brennan looks the strongest sprinter after a tough day of punchy hills, but if Lund Andresen can position himself well, he can hold off the Brit as he did at the TDU.

Marta Lach (SD Worx-Protime)

SD Worx-Protime have long been absent from the Australian summer of racing, so their presence on the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race start line will bring some anticipation.

One of the top Classics teams in the women's peloton, they will be expected to play a big role over the hilly course in Geelong, with Marta Lach and Femke Gerritse looking like their top options.

Both can punch over hills and sprint, as they showed at the Tour Down Under, but Lach likely has a better hope of staying in front with the stronger climbers.

She's also been gaining form as the block in Australia has gone on, taking third in the Tour Down Under one-day race and second in the Cadel's Criterium on Thursday.

Aaron Gate (XDS Astana)

Quietly positioning himself as one of the key contenders, once again, is XDS Astana's Aaron Gate.

Last year's runner-up in Geelong, it's a course that works well for the New Zealand rider's strengths, with his three appearances ending in rising results from 27th to 12th and second last season.

He's another rider who didn't get a victory out of the Tour Down Under and will be eager to get out of the Australian season with something big to show for it, and Sunday's race provides the perfect opportunity.

He took two top fives at the stage racing in South Australia and will be backed by the also in-form Simone Velasco, giving XDS Astana options as the climbing and rapid finale plays out. But with his track pedigree and fast finish, Gate could be the man to surprise the bigger names.

Honourable mentions

Home team Liv AlUla Jayco are always in and amongst the action, but it's difficult to place one of their riders above the top favourites, though Ruby Roseman-Gannon (Liv AlUla Jayco) could be a good option for the finale.

Josie Nelson (Picnic PostNL) has shown consistent strong form throughout the Australian summer with two stage podiums at the TDU, and she has been fourth in this race previously.

Maggie Coles-Lyster (Human Powered Health) will likely come unstuck over Challambra, but if riders look at each other and it all comes back together for a big bunch sprint, she could come back in the fray.

NSN Pro Cycling have a very strong team for Sunday's race, but it's hard to pick an obvious leader between Corbin Strong, Brady Gilmore and pure sprint option Ethan Vernon. They will no doubt want to put on a show in teammate Simon Clarke's final race before retirement, too.

Harry Sweeny (EF Education-EasyPost) arrives at the one-day race fresh off the back of an unexpected podium from the TDU, and he's the perfect candidate for a late attack.

With the course likely being too difficult for Welsford to make a final group, Samuel Watson (Ineos Grenadiers) looks like the best hope for Ineos Grenadiers.