Paris-Roubaix brings Tadej Pogačar vs Mathieu van der Poel round three in 2026, but who has the better supporting cast for the hellish pavé? – Analysis

If Tadej Pogačar's stunning win at Milan-San Remo showed anything apart from his excellence, it was that even he – the best rider anyone has seen for 50 years – needs an elite team to win the hardest races.

The same was true of the Tour of Flanders, where his teammate Florian Vermeersch was vital to how early the race was blown to pieces, and in truth, Pogačar would not have got to his total of 12 Monuments as seemingly easily as he has without UAE Team Emirates-XRG having several of the best riders in the world in his support.

His main Classics rival and the three-time defending champion, Mathieu van der Poel, has enjoyed similar support from his Alpecin-Premier Tech teammates, notably at Paris-Roubaix, where the two modern superstars will face off for a third time this season.

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Pogačar has lost the key support of Tim Wellens due to injury this Classics campaign, but Van der Poel has also seen his team take a hit after Gianni Vermeersch transferred away to Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe for 2026.

Both squads are still filled with rising talents and those with specific experience to support their leaders, but with the chaos of the Roubaix cobbles quickly approaching this Sunday, just how do Alpecin and UAE's respective seven-man squads match up in terms of quality?

Tadej Pogacar vs Mathieu van der Poel

Pogačar is 2-0 up in their 2026 matchups so far, winning both Milan-San Remo and the Tour of Flanders, but Paris-Roubaix is the race where Van der Poel is most at home, with his bike handling over the rough terrain and pure power on the flat parcours giving him the edge.

In both of the first two Monuments, Pogačar has enough climbing to show off his superiority, dropping the Dutchman on the Poggio and then the Oude Kwaremont. There won't be any ascents as difficult come Sunday, so the World Champion does lose his advantage, but the current form he is in suggests that even Van der Poel may not be strong enough.

Pogačar may have only made his debut over the vicious pavè last season, but he had already impressed in the area during the 2022 Tour and, while a mistake ultimately lost him the race, that year of experience can't be downplayed.

He will know the course well, with several UAE recons taking place between the end of the 2025 edition and now, and it normally doesn't take him too many attempts at a new race before he wins it.

Van der Poel will be looking for revenge during the spring, having missed out on a third San Remo and fourth Flanders title in the past few weeks, and Roubaix has been his banker since 2023, winning all of the past three editions solo.

Strength-wise, he too looks to be at an all-time high, and he should have the technical advantage as stated. Even arriving at the velodrome for a two-up sprint, you would have Van der Poel as favourite, so while he is 2-0 down, it's hard to bet against him returning one victory back this Sunday.

Florian Vermeersch vs Jasper Philipsen

Both teams have former runner-ups as their second card to play on Sunday, with Belgian Classics specialist Florian Vermeersch becoming a vital player for Pogačar this season and Jasper Philipsen representing the most versatile fast-man at the race.

Philipsen has combined perfectly with Van der Poel throughout his three wins, marking moves behind his solo attack in 2023 and 2024 before outsprinting whoever entered the iconic velodrome alongside him to take second.

Even last season, Philipsen was the final rider to be dropped by his teammate and his former teammate on the road to Roubaix, but he ultimately ended in 11th. Six spots ahead of him was Vermeersch, who backed up his second-place from 2021 and proved that it was no fluke.

He led UAE during much of the 2026 cobbled races, before blowing the race up and leading out Pogačar at Flanders in the last 100km. Even when his teammate went away, his effort didn't end, as he rolled across the line in seventh, a true sign of the progress he's made.

Philipsen did confirm he was suffering from a cold in the lead-up to the race, so he may be missing the same percentage points which carried him to the podium in Roubaix, but he will be buoyed by a recent victory at In Flanders Fields, and can almost always play the Van der Poel card when it comes to the work he does in northern France.

Both could prove essential in the race for glory and history, but Vermeersch has arguably been the more in-form of the two in recent weeks. Expect him to be Pogačar's final man, and possibly even a second attacking option for UAE, which forces Van der Poel to chase.

Nils Politt vs Tibor Del Grosso

The next matchup is one truly of experience against talent, with Nils Politt taking on his 10th Paris-Roubaix and Tibor Del Grosso his first. But both are essential cogs in their respective UAE and Alpecin machines.

Politt could be resigned to working simply on the front to make the race as hard as possible for Pogačar, but he was the second last man used before they split up Flanders on the Molenberg, so his form is clearly at a high.

The big German will no doubt be drilling things on the front, and any sign of his usually lung-busting effort on the front could be a signal to all of Pogačar's rivals that a final acceleration from Vermeersch and then the big attack is coming. Politt has finished second, fourth and seventh in this race, so he knows just how to be successful over the pavé.

Del Grosso, 22, is one of the top rising stars in the peloton and a big weapon of the future for Alpecin. But for now, he will be on duty to help position Van der Poel for the most important moments on Sunday.

Also coming from cyclo-cross, he too is an excellent bike handler, but he's also in great shape, having just won the NXT Classic and been one of Van der Poel's final helpers at E3 Saxo Classic, before he attacked away in the final 60km.

Before Vermeersch and Philipsen really come into play, Politt and Del Grosso could well prove to be the key to who enters the most important sectors in first position, and therefore decide who gets to exert the pressure when they want to.

Mikkel Bjerg vs Silvan Dillier

Every team needs someone to control the breakaway, and at Paris-Roubaix, that can be more essential than ever. Such is the chaos and carnage of the cobbles, top riders and rivals can always slip into early moves, and once you get ahead, it's far from simple to just chase big groups down.

Dillier and Bjerg have both proved their worth in the Monuments so far, with the Swiss rider doing almost 200km on his own at the front of Milan-San Remo, and Bjerg doing that controlling job at Flanders.

With the playing field equalised by the flatter parcours, expect both men to do a serious job on the front, depending on how strong the breakaway that gets away, if one indeed does, is.

Bjerg has also been among the strongest riders in a Monument himself before, finishing in the top five of Flanders before, but it's Dillier who has the Roubaix experience, taking second in memorable fashion behind only Peter Sagan in 2018 after a day in the early break.

Expect to see an awful lot of the Danish UAE rider and the bands of the former Swiss national champion on the front on Sunday. Their importance can not be downplayed.

Antonio Morgado vs Edward Planckaert

Antonio Morgado and Edward Planckaert represent another matchup of youthful talent vs experience, with the 22-year-old racing for UAE and the 31-year-old backing up Van der Poel, as he has at the last two editions of Paris-Roubaix.

Morgado has big things expected of his future, but his punchy characteristics suit races such as the Tour of Flanders better than the flatter Roubaix. For this reason, expect him to play an earlier role in the UAE train for Pogačar, but he's got the potential to be another top performer.

Planckaert has played multiple different roles during his time supporting Van der Poel, sometimes helping to chase down breaks, bringing the Dutchman back from any issues, but recently he played a notable role at the E3 Saxo Classics by getting in the early break.

Van der Poel attacked across to him with Tim van Dijke, before using a small pull from Planckaert to launch the solo move, which ultimately resulted in victory. If an Alpecin rider tries to get into the early moves, expect it to be one of Planckaert or Dillier, and this could prove invaluable in the latter stages and the fight against Pogačar.

Juan Sebastián Molano vs Florian Sénéchal

Meaning no disrespect, UAE's sprint backup for Roubaix isn't quite on the calibre of a Philipsen, with Juan Sebastián Molano being a more than capable sprinter but no world-beater like the Belgian.

He's taken up a spot with UAE struggling due to injury, but has played a domestique on several occasions for the Slovenian in stage races before, so he is definitely able to use his engine over flat roads to the World Champion's benefit.

Alpecin have a second fast man among their ranks for Sunday in the form of Florian Senéchal, who may lack the experience of racing with Van der Poel and Philipsen, as a near signing for the 2026 season.

But he knows exactly how to take on Paris-Roubaix, having raced the cobbled Monument 10 times already in his career, with a top result of sixth in 2019, and it's this king of Roubaix expertise that could prove vital in a tough moment for his leaders.

Rui Oliveira vs Jonas Rickaert

Jonas Rickaert has long played a big part in the successes of Van der Poel and Philipsen at Alpecin, often as a lead-out man but primarily as a long-term domestique, who has almost become part of the furniture at the Belgian team since 2019.

Sunday will be his sixth Paris-Roubaix appearance, and while they would both love for him to do a big lead-out onto the velodrome, he's more likely to play a smaller role in the early phases.

The same is true of UAE's Oliveira, who is taking on his third Roubaix. He'll be hoping to not get crashed at the start line as he was at the Tour of Flanders, but will play a similar role in the early hours of racing out of Compiègne, guiding Pogačar and his key helpers to the vital sectors.

The other top teams:

Overall, Alpecin likely have a deeper level of talent and experience across their squad for Sunday, but Pogačar himself may swing the balance to UAE's side on his own. Either way, they aren't the only teams starting with seven elite riders for Sunday, and the next big rivals bubbling just under will also have ample support.

Visma-Lease a Bike are led by their talisman Wout van Aert, who is continuing to chase victory at a Monument for the first time since 2020. He responded well to Pogačar initially in Flanders, but was ultimately a level below the winner, Van der Poel and Remco Evenepoel.

It's been three years since a puncture on the Carrefour de l'Arbre ruined his best chance at Roubaix glory, but with the flatter parcours, the gap from him to the two big favourites should be smaller.

Perhaps with a bit of luck and alongside an arguably stronger overall Visma squad that also features Christophe Laporte, Per Strand Hagenes and Matthew Brennan, they can use their numeric advantage to finally bring it home for the Belgian in 2026.

Ineos Grenadiers have the next top favourite with Filippo Ganna, who will be hoping desperately for better luck than in the 2025 race. They'll mostly rely on the Italian for a result, but the likes of Josh Tarling and Ben Turner could prove vital in them challenging UAE and Alpecin.

Two-time podium finisher Mads Pedersen is leading a squad of big men for Lidl-Trek on Sunday, with sprint option Jonathan Milan, Mathias Vacek and Max Walscheid all representing possible top 10 finishers as well.

A puncture also ruined Pedersen's race in the final 70km last season, but after his miraculous comeback from a crash at Milan-San Remo last month, the Dane's form could well be rising just in time for the big appointment. He's yet to win a Monument, but Sunday could see the powerful Lidl-Trek outfit guide Pedersen to the Velodrome, where if he's able to sprint for the win, it would be hard to bet against him, even in the face of Pogačar or Van der Poel.

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