'We have the big gun still to come' – Are UAE Team Emirates-XRG the biggest threat to Mathieu van der Poel at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, even without Pogačar?

With Wout van Aert out of the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad due to illness, debutant Mathieu van der Poel stands alone at the top of the favourites list, with some distance between him and the next expected best. But, even without their talisman, Tadej Pogačar, could men's cycling's top team, UAE Team Emirates-XRG, actually be the biggest threat to the Dutchman's chances of winning the first big Classic of the 2026 season?

It's no secret that when racing reaches Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix – the first three of the five Monuments, cycling's biggest one-day races – Pogačar and Van der Poel will be the two likely protagonists, having won 18 between them.

However, alongside the world champion's continued dominance has come an improvement to seemingly everyone in UAE's colours, winning a record 97 races last season and with 20 different riders.

At practically every race, they field a potential winner, and the Omloop is no different. They are led by an in-form Tim Wellens, who did podium the race in 2019, but is a much stronger racer nowadays, former runner-up Nils Politt and rising Belgian talent, Florian Vermeersch.

"We have a lot of guys who are missing, especially Johnny Narváez and Mikkel Bjerg, also, which hit us hard after the racing in Australia," Politt told Cyclingnews while racing at the UAE Tour last week, after some bad luck in the early season hit their Classics core.

"But we still have some guys to go for the podium. For sure, Tim, Flo, me and the other guys can try to get the best result for now, and then we have the big gun still to come with Tadej at Flanders and Roubaix."

Wellens looks the most likely to actually be able to challenge Van der Poel, given his absolute dominance at the Clásica Jaén gravel/road race in Spain early this month, where he rode 54km solo, so he could well be able to withstand the moment the race is inevitably blown apart by the Dutchman.

This is how the Belgian champion thinks this could play out, and though he sees a smaller final group benefiting his team, he has been realistic in his words before the race, admitting that if Van der Poel has split things up, he'll be in very strong form and tough to beat.

"He's a rider who prefers us not to finish with 40 riders. That also applies to our team," Wellens told Sporza, having already revealed that he is indeed in flying form. "On the other hand, Van der Poel's presence also means that my chances of winning are diminishing.

"Everything went perfectly this winter. I didn't get sick, and I did everything I had to do from November until now. My results in the Clasica Jaén were already incredibly good. My best results ever over 60 minutes.

"I feel like my engine is getting stronger every year. Those are the training sessions that pay off. Although that doesn't automatically translate into victories."

And with three riders strong enough to potentially get away if things come together after the Muur and Bosberg combo, they will all have the freedom to go for it in the absence of a clear top leader, as will be the case when Pogačar is there.

"My role has definitely changed a bit. I think I will have a free role together with Tim and Nils, and then we'll see, but we could be pretty much the same," Vermeersch told Cyclingnews, also speaking at the UAE Tour.

"I think my own confidence in general will be a bit higher going into the new season. But it can change quickly after one weekend, so we'll see about that."

Even without their big star, UAE will have to be watched closely, and Van der Poel will know that very well. It's unlikely he'll let Wellens simply get a lead, knowing well what he can do solo, but that could open the door for a late Politt or Vermeersch move if they have the legs.

Either way, it's almost somewhat of a few hit for the men in white, with their main leader still to come for the big appointments against Van der Poel at the Monuments, but a win over him from one of the world champion's domesqieues could deliver a mental blow that pays dividends when it comes to taking him down at San Remo and Roubaix, which Pogačar hasn't yet been able to manage.

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