Game changer: How Mathieu van der Poel will completely alter the shape of this year's Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

All it took was one laconic social message from Alpecin-Premier Tech with the words 'Spring Campaign Locked In,' and in a second, this year's men's Omloop Het Nieuwsblad became an utterly different race.

That was how Mathieu van der Poel made a much-anticipated announcement on Wednesday that he will be making his debut in the Opening Weekend, and for all the participants in the 81st edition of Omloop, the stakes have been raised much, much higher than before.

The hints from the Van der Poel camp that it might happen had been there for quite a while, most recently in Benidorm's Cyclo-Cross World Cup, when the Dutch star said that taking part in Belgium's opening major cobbled Classic for the first time ever aged 31, was "at the back of my mind."

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Cue much frenzied speculation, and while we didn't have to wait quite as long for a decision by Van der Poel regarding his Benidorm participation, where the will-he-won't-he-take-part narrative lasted right up until the afternoon before the World Cup, the impact of his decision is exactly the same.

Just as in the Spanish World Cup, the moment he announced he was taking part in Omloop, it wasn't that all bets were completely off for the remainder of the participants. But the odds of anyone else being the first rider home in Ninove on Saturday afternoon have lengthened enormously.

Fans with long memories might recollect that in 2020, we came within a whisker of Van der Poel racing Omloop for the first time. After throwing down the gauntlet in the Volta ao Algarve and saying he'd be going to win in Nieuwsblad, a bout of the flu laid Van der Poel low for the event itself.

Things have moved on quite a bit in Van der Poel's career since then, of course, but if he was already viewed as a big favourite back in 2020 for the opening Classic, six years on, he's a towering one.

His colossal history of success in the cobbled Classics over the last five years is the prime reason for this, of course, although it's not the only one by a long shot. His three victories in the Tour of Flanders are a major pointer, as it is arguably the race with the most similar feel to Omloop het Nieuwsblad in terms of the cobbled bergs and narrow, technical backroads of central Flanders, as well as using many of the same ascents.

But the list of other Classics successes for Van der Poel is such a long one now, too, with three victories in Paris-Roubaix the standout result, but also double wins in E3 Harelbeke and Dwars door Vlaanderen. The result is that his participation in Nieuwsblad has all the same impact as when Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) announces these days that he will be doing a Grand Tour. You don't necessarily immediately start wondering who will finish second alongside the Slovenian, but the record books do suggest that it wouldn't be such a bad idea.

Indeed, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is famously one of the least predictable of the Classics, the race which acts as a pointer to the shape of things to come in one-day racing later on in the season. But even though it has the most varied of outcomes when it comes to winning strategies, once again, Van der Poel has a winning hand, in part thanks to his immense versatility.

Say Nieuwsblad ends up being decided in a bunch sprint like last year, for example, with Søren Wærenskjold (Uno-X Mobility) coming out on top. Van der Poel would have that eventuality covered, as proven by his sprint victory in the cobbled uphill of Le Samyn in 2025 against Paul Magnier (Soudal-QuickStep).

This was after another trademark Van der Poel strategy, going for it alone 60 kilometres from the finish, failed to play out as Van der Poel would have liked when he was marked out by his rivals. But by then, finding enough energy to go for it in the uphill cobbled sprint in Samyn, Van der Poel could even win – to slightly misquote the great American singer-songwriter John Prine – in spite of himself.

Perhaps only Pogačar himself has a similar range of talents to Van der Poel, in fact, with uphill accelerations on cobbled or steep climbs, yet another in-house speciality. After all, who can forget the Dutchman's charge away to victory in the Glasgow World Championships on Cathedral Street, leaving former Flanders winner Alberto Bettiol trailing in his wake, and then on the Mur de Montrose?

Nor is it just about race craft pure and simple. Van der Poel's victory in Samyn, coming just three days after Nieuwsblad, is also another solid indication that where others have question marks about early-season form, the Dutchman tends to be very consistent throughout the year and right from the word go. If his victories in February are currently limited to a stage of the UAE Tour in 2021, that's mostly because he doesn't tend to start his season until March.

Is there hope for anyone else?

Some might say that on Saturday, his rivals should be less tired, given Nieuwsblad is 60 kilometres shorter than the distance covered by Van der Poel for his most epic victories at Flanders or in the World Championships. But the other contenders will need no reminding that he's had no problem winning events like the equally hilly E3 Saxo Classic (209 kilometres) as recently as last year, claimed with a stunning 40-kilometre solo break.

There was one occasion when Mads Pedersen beat him in Gent-Wevelgem in a two-up sprint in 2024, a race with a similar-ish profile of cobbled climbs and a flat finale to Nieuwsblad. And of course, Tadej Pogačar did the same in the Tour of Flanders in 2025 as did outsider Kasper Asgreen back in 2021.

But Pogačar is not racing in Nieuwsblad – something former winner Davide Ballerini (XDS-Astana) rightly observed "changes everything" in a recent interview with BiciPro – and Pedersen is still recovering from his bad crash in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana. Of the 'big three' for most of the Classics, only one will be present to receive the roars of the crowd in Gent's 't Kuipke velodrome on Saturday morning.

There's another major element to why Van der Poel will be the stand-out favourite this weekend, which is often forgotten: his team. Not only is there a clearly established hierarchy at Alpecin-Premier Tech after so many Classics victories for their star rider, but with Jasper Philipsen, winner at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and third last year in Omloop, also present on Saturday, the team have yet another excellent option should the unthinkable happen, and Van der Poel run out of energy.

But it is not only the fans and media who feel that Van der Poel's presence is such a game-changer for Nieuwsblad. As Paul Magnier, second last year, told Cyclingnews last week, he'd prefer it if Van der Poel wasn't taking part, and his participation would force Soudal-QuickStep to rethink their entire strategy. Others will surely be doing the same.

Looked at from almost all perspectives, then, Van der Poel is the reference point for Saturday, and his squad will be expected to do almost all the work of controlling the race, too.

And therein perhaps lies his rivals biggest hope: that just as happened last year in the women's race when Lotte Claes early move went all the way to the line and victory, getting in the break from the gun and forcing Alpecin to spend their bullets too soon might, just, tip the balance in their favour.

But for now, and as we all found out thanks to that Instagram post on Wednesday morning, one rider is now standing head and shoulders above his Nieuwsblad rivals.

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