Tour of Flanders 2024 – Analysing the contenders

The second Monument of the year is nearly here and at this year's Tour of Flanders the scene is set for an intriguing battle over the 270km from Antwerp to Oudenaarde.

There has been a reshuffling of the contenders list after the testing of the waters at the run-in races. Some potential favourites have dropped down, or even off, the list while others have made it clear that their rightful place is near the very top. Mads Pedersen and his Lidl-Trek team, for one, delivered a reminder of the power in team strength after an impressive Gent-Wevelgem victory over Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck). 

Still up until mid-week the spotlight was largely focussed on the regular rivals of Van der Poel and Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) as they looked set to face off for only the second time this road season at the cobbled Classic. Then Wednesday's Dwars door Vlaanderen changed all that, when Van Aert came crashing down and fractured his collarbone and ribs. 

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What's more, he wasn't the only contender involved, with Pedersen and his teammate Jasper Stuyven as well as Biniam Girmay all hitting the deck. It was a day that will leave an indelible mark on the Tour of Flanders, between the riders that are out and those not at their best because of the injuries they are carrying.

There will be plenty of others, though, that are ready to step into any gaps as the lure of the Tour of Flanders means many have named it as a key focus for the year. Though do they have what it takes to land a shot in the centre of the target? Cyclingnews runs the ruler over key favourites for the 2024 edition of the eagerly anticipated cobbled Classic.

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Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

The world champion has a record at the Tour of Flanders that makes him the most clear-cut of favourites plus he has delivered a run in that has done plenty to bolster his claim. Indeed, on the days ahead of the Ronde it's become clear that Mathieu van der Poel is in a world of his own.

The 29-year-old may have just started his road season in mid-March but it began on a strong note with a powerful showing at Milan San-Remo, where he may have come tenth but had utilised his clear strength to shepherd teammate Jasper Philipsen toward a sprint victory.

Then there was a win at E3 Saxo Classic – a key pre-Flanders test given it uses many of the same climbs and cobbles – and a second at Gent-Wevelgem so there is no doubt he has already built back to formidable form after his post-cyclocross season break. Still, the fact that he didn't win in Wevelgem, admitting he was still paying for the efforts at E3, has left his rivals with at least a glimmer of hope.

Still, a reminder of his history at the race could quickly dull that glimmer. His worst result from five starts is a fourth in his debut year, 2019. Since then Van der Poel hasn’t once budged from the top two steps of the podium.  Wins came in 2020 and 2022, with the rider who kept him out of the top spot most recently – Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) – not taking to the start line on Sunday while 2021 winner Kasper Asgreen (Soudal-QuickStep) hasn’t exactly had flying form so far this season. Plus, if Van der Poel keeps up his pattern of the last four years – alternating second place and first – 2024 is the year he will celebrate his third victory.

Matteo Jorgenson and Tiesj Benoot (Visma-Lease a Bike)

The expectations of yet another intriguing showdown between Van der Poel and Van Aert came crashing down on Wednesday at Dwars door Vlaanderen when the Belgian hit the deck and fractured his collarbone and ribs. The absence of Van Aert has confirmed Van der Poel's status as the clear-cut favourite but Visma-Lease a Bike's win yielding focus even after Wednesday's crash demonstrates that they will not give up their Tour of Flanders ambitions easily. 

The team, which already had Christophe Laporte out with illness and 2022 runner-up Dylan van Baarle out for the run up races, may have lost plan A but its solid options run far further through the alphabet. Matteo Jorgenson perhaps put himself at the head of that pile with his winning effort at Dwars door Vlaanderen, particularly as he had already come ninth on his debut at Tour of Flanders last year, won Paris-Nice in February and came fifth at E3 last week.

There's also Tiesj Benoot, who has been in the top ten at the race three times and – with the exception of a couple of DNFs – in his nine times lining up at the race has at worst finished 13th. A fourth on Wednesday from among the group of four that came in behind his winning teammate, Jorgenson, was also a promising sign particularly as it erased some of the doubts about his condition given he abandoned the E3 Saxo Classic after a crash.

What's more, it was clear from the interviews after Dwars door Vlaanderen that the 30-year-old Belgian felt rotten about Van Aert's crash and was concerned about the part he played, saying that he thought his teammate hit his rear wheel. Helping the team win at the Ronde even without Van Aert, may at least provide some consolation.

Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)

Mads Pedersen may have given every single one of Van der Poel's rivals hope as he proved the world champion was beatable at Gent-Wevelgem, but perhaps also at the same time instilled a little concern as the Lidl-Trek rider simultaneously proved just how big a challenge it may be to beat him. The cleverly played two-way duel with Van der Poel on the road to Wevelgem certainly showcased the power of Pedersen but also, once again, the Lidl-Trek team.

“You know Mathieu is one of the biggest stars in cycling. Without criticising my own team, none of us is on that level,” Pedersen said after the race. “If we want to beat guys like him or Wout [van Aert] or even [Tadej] Pogačar, we have to be with numbers and put pressure on them."

At the E3 Saxo Classic Lidl-Trek ended up with four riders in the top 11 and Jasper Stuyven in second before Pedersen worked his way up to the top step following the same strength-in-numbers battle plan at Gent-Wevelgem.

Given the success of the powerful teamwork – also often a winning difference in the women's squad – applying the pressure would seem likely to once again be a crucial component of the team plan. With riders like Stuyven, Jonathan Milan and Toms Skujins expected to be on the squad alongside Pedersen, they had the cards to play that could help them deliver another successful hand. 

Though Dwars door Vlaanderen threw a spanner in the works. Pedersen, Alex Kirsch and Stuyven all crashed, with Stuyven immediately taken to hospital for checks and the team confirming that he had broken his collarbone and would require surgery. 

Kirsch fractured a metacarpal on the right hand and will also require surgery while Pedersen, who initially returned to the bike but was ultimately recorded as a DNF on the results sheet "escaped with just abrasions and contusions". Lidl-Trek said the plan remains that he will race on Sunday.

Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost)

There is only one rider on the EF Education-EasyPost line-up who, based on experience, knows exactly what it takes to win the Tour of Flanders, and that is Alberto Bettiol.

The Italian soloed to a victory in the 2019 edition after he surprised his rivals by riding away on the final climb of the Oude Kwaremont with 17km and then holding off all the big-name chasers. He has had a run of success this early season with a win at Milano-Torino and fifth place at Milan-San Remo, results that could bode well for him at the Tour of Flanders.

The latest test, Dwars door Vlaanderen, delivered both good and bad signs, as while he did make a key move before cramps at 19km to go took him out of contention.

Still, the team managed to find a spot not too far from the top of the lead places as Michael Valgren came over the line in eighth after having been on the move with Bettiol earlier in the race. He may well prove a valuable teammate for Bettiol again come Sunday.

Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty)

Biniam Girmay took a different approach to his season this year, starting in Australia to see if it would be a better run toward his key Classics goals. He hasn't had a lot to show for it so far in terms of spring results but last weekend's Gent-Wevelgem did deliver some hope that the Classics form he was hoping for is starting to show.

The 23-year-old Intermarché-Wanty rider came seventh at the race where he won the title in 2022, finishing near the front of the reduced peloton that came over the line behind the break of Pedersen and Van der Poel.

Girmay made his Tour of Flanders debut last season but a heavy crash and a concussion put an end to his chances. Hopefully, the crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen hasn't taken him out of contention at an even earlier juncture this year. The Eritrean came down in the same fall as Van Aert and was taken to hospital for checks, with the team later saying that neither he nor his teammate Laurenz Rex, sustained any fractures.

Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious)

Ever since that spectacular Milan-San Remo victory in 2022, aided by a dropper post descent, Mohorič is a name that regularly pops up as one to consider in the favourites list. Still, longshot is definitely a fitting description for the rider at Tour of Flanders as it isn't exactly a race where he has form, still his record on the long race to the Ligurian coastal town wasn't staggering either in the editions before he went on to take victory. 

Milan-San Remo is just one example of just what the rider can deliver at high-stakes priority events and on the run into this season the current Gravel World Champion had slated Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix as two targets he had his mind set on for 2024. 

The Slovenian's best finish at Ronde van Vlaanderen from his three participations has been 21st. However, he has come closer to the podium in the race which has much in common with Sunday's event, the E3 Saxo Classic, where he came fourth in 2022 and seventh last year.

That said, he was 15th this time in what turned out to be a chaotic crash-heavy edition. That was followed by a 13th at Gent-Wevelgem, so the build-up hasn't been spectacular but the spark of a fifth at Strade Bianche and sixth at Milan-San Remo may yet be rekindled.

Tim Wellens and Nils Politt (UAE Team Emirates)

Off to a strong season's start, Tim Wellens has two podiums and five top-five finishes since he began racing at Vuelta a Murcia in early February. It is his second place at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, fourth at this week's E3 Classic and even his 12th at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and 13th at Strade Bianche that show his ability to contest the biggest one-day races with the best.

Racing on home soil during Belgium's cobbled Classics, Wellens has never quite pulled it together for the big show at the Tour of Flanders. His best finish in the 2021 edition was 25th. That's not to say he won't be among the contenders this year, even if he is among the second-tier behind the outright favourites such as Van der Poel, and Pedersen.

He lines up with Marc Hirschi, who, like himself, tends to favour the other Monuments: Milan-San-Remo, Liège-Bastogne-Liège, and Il Lombardia. The team also has a powerful rider in Mikkel Berg, António Morgado, who was recently second at Le Samyn. Of course, there is also Nils Politt, who has already performed well this spring, with a second at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and seventh at E3 Classic.

Matteo Trentin (Tudor Pro Cycling)

Matteo Trentin gives the second-tier Tudor Pro Cycling team a real contender at the Tour of Flanders. Last year, he finished in the top 10, his highest-placed finish of the 11 editions he has raced.

Signing with Tudor through 2026, Trentin is a mentor and leader of the team but still brings his ambition to every race. During the Classics campaign, he finished ninth at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and, more recently, tenth at Gent-Wevelgem.

The challenging terrain moves up a notch at the Tour of Flanders, but Trentin has never shied away from difficult one-day races. More often than not, these routes are where he has shown his best career performances. Look no further than his fifth place at the Wollongong Worlds, second place at the Yorkshire Worlds, and fourth place at the Bergen Worlds.

He appears to be performing stronger as he races into the later years of his career, and he is the type of rider who can use his strength and experience to land on the podium in a race like the Tour of Flanders.

Kasper Asgreen and Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-QuickStep)

Soudal-QuickStep – the Wolfpack – was once the ruler of the Classics, and now steps into Tour of Flanders with some possibilities, but it's certainly no longer the stand-out option.

Still, it's hard to write off riders like Kasper Asgreen, even when he has had a so-so run into the race with his best result of the season so far a 16th at Milan-San Remo – he hadn't exactly lit up the early season leaderboard either in 2021, before taking the top step at both E3 and Flanders. Even while still on the build after injury he came seventh in Oudenaarde last year too.

Asgreen, as a former winner, may have a strong claim but Julian Alaphilippe has unfinished business. The two-time world champion hit a motorbike on his debut while out front with Van Aert and Van der Poel in 2020.

Since then, he has raced the Belgian Monument twice, finishing 42nd in 2021 and 51st in 2023 after being caught up in a massive crash. This year he has put a big target on the race and his recent ninth at Milan-San Remo will provide some encouragement as he strives to turn his record at the race, along with his season, around.

Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla)

Tour of Flanders last year was a race better forgotten for Michael Matthews, as while he entered with hope after coming back with building form following COVID-19 he was quickly out of the action again due to crashes at the cobbled Classic. After that, the Australian commented on social media "Tour of Flanders I love you but sometimes you can be brutal, but I'll be back."

Now he is returning in 2024 with a far more promising spring and plenty of incentive to grasp a top result, having missed out by the narrowest of margins at Milan-San Remo in his photo finish sprint with Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck).

Matthews' best result at the race so far is in the year of his debut, with sixth, but his performance at Milan-San Remo indicates that if things fall his way in 2024 the podium could perhaps be within grasp.

Honorable mentions

• Stefan Küng, Valentin Madouas and Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ)
• Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X Mobility)
• Brent van Moer (Lotto-Dstny)