Tour de France 2024 Stage 2 preview - Expect Pogačar to test Vingegaard and GC rivals on San Luca climb

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Following the tension and emotions of stage 1 to Rimini, stage 2 of the Tour de France en Italie is expected to be an even more dramatic day of racing, with the GC contenders likely to test each other on the two climbs up to the San Luca sanctuary that overlooks Bologna and the stage finish.  

If Romain Bardet and his Dsm-firmenich PostNL teammate Frank van den Broek stole the limelight with their perfectly executed attack on stage 1, we can expect Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič Remco Evenepoel and a few other select GC riders and puncheurs to show their form and test their rivals on Sunday. 

The San Luca climb is only 1.9km long but rises at an average of 10.6% with sections at double digits early on and in a steep middle section. It seems an ideal place for Pogačar to really test Vingegaard and expose his true level of form after the Dane’s Itzulia crash and secretive return to training. 

Stage 2 covers the San Luca climb twice, after 168km and again after 186km, with the second time up offering bonus seconds at the crest. There are just 12.1km of fast, testing descent and flat city boulevards from the summit to the finish line in central Bologna. 

If Pogačar can crack Vingegaard and gain precious seconds, his Tour will suddenly be in ascendency. Yet if Vingegaad can stay with Pogačar, then the Dane will land a psychological blow and a boost to his own ambitions. 

Similar predictions and calculations are valid for Roglič, Evenepoel and anyone who wants to challenge them for a place on the final Tour podium. The stakes are that high and just on stage 2 of the Tour.   

The 199.2km stage starts in Marco Pantani’s birthplace of Cesenatico, with the Tour likely to remember Il Pirata’s 1998 Tour de France victory, without delving too deeply into the details of his career and tragic death caused by a cocaine overdose.   

The stage starts at sea level on the Adriatic coast and then rides north to Byzantine Ravenna and west to Imola, with a loop on the Enzo and Dino motor racing circuit and the climbs where Julian Alaphilippe won the world title in 2020.

There are four categorised climbs between the 74th and 151st kilometres and other rolling roads in the hills overlooking the plains of the Po Delta. They will surely see a break chase the mountain points but the GC teams will likely chase them to set up a showdown on the two climbs up to San Luca. The stage will be like Flèche-Wallonne with a descent to the finish, or Liège-Bastogne-Liège with far more at stake and far more up for grabs.   

The short but steep climb rises alongside the covered arches and six hundred steps covered by pilgrims up to the sanctuary. 

The climb is covered five times during the Giro dell’Emilia one-day race in late summer, with the finish at the summit. The San Luca climb has also hosted a mountain time trial stage of the Giro d’Italia in 1956 won by Charly Gaul, while Moreno Argentin (1984) and Simon Gerrans (2009) have won stages at the summit. In 2019 the climb hosted the prologue time trial of the Corsa Rosa with Roglič dominating. 

He seems perfectly suited to the steepest section and the painful grind to the summit and has also won the Giro dell’Emilia three times in the last five years. The last was in September 2023, when he held off Pogačar at the line.  

“It's a steep, short climb. It's true it suits me well, so we’ll see how it goes,” Roglič said cautiously but with experience on his side. Roglič is staying modest in the early days of the Tour de France but knows how to pace his effort on the San Luca climb. 

It is easy to go too deep in the early section and create far too much lactic acid. The key middle section begins with the hairpins that create the ‘Curva Orfanelle’ at the halfway point as the road passes under the arches and footpath.  

Pantani’s fan climb and die-hard fans usually remember Ilirata by packing the curves and waving yellow flags. We can expect them to be out on Sunday, along with thousands of screaming Italian tifosi. 

The gradient touches 19% here for two hundred metres and only eases gradually to 17% and then 13%. This is where the pain bites and the gaps amongst the riders open. If anyone has something extra, they can push on and open a gap and take advantage as the gradient eases. 

Bardet will start stage 2 in the race leader’s yellow jersey but he knows he will have to fight to limit his losses on the final climb of San Luca. He is just 15 seconds ahead of Pogačar and all the other GC contenders. His DSM-Firmenich PostNL team will surely commit to defending the jersey on the ride to Bologna. It will then be up to Bardet on the final San Luca climb. 

He surely knows that Pogačar will attack to test Vingegaard and so perhaps shake up the GC battle and take the yellow jersey. Sunday will be a sacred day for Bardet but surely a day of GC attacks too.  

Stage 2 Sprints

• Intermediate sprint, km 108.1
• Time bonus sprint, km 186.6

Stage 2 Mountains

• Côte de Monticino (2km at 7.5%), cat. 3, km 74
• Côte de Gallisterna (1.3km at 12.8%), cat. 3, km 88.8
• Côte de Botteghino di Zocca (1.9km at 6.9%), cat. 4, km 139
• Côte de Montecalvo (2.8km at 7.7%), cat. 3, km 151.2
• Côte de San Luca (1.9km at 10.6%), cat. 3, km 168.3
• Côte de San Luca (1.9km at 10.6%), cat. 3, km 186.6