The question around Paul Seixas and his possible Tour de France debut have been swirling pretty much since the minute he made his pro debut at the start of last year, but in the recent weeks and months, the speculation and debate has only intensified. Going toe to toe for so long with Tadej Pogačar on Sunday at Liège- Bastogne-Liège, in particular, has sent it into another dimension.
His Decathlon CMA CGM team have been clear that they wanted to get the first part of the season done before deciding if Seixas will be at the start line in Barcelona this July. But the time to make a decision is now looming, and fervour around the 19-year-old is only growing.
Opening thoughts
Take me back to the 2019 Tour. The waft of barbecued merguez sausages from the riverside press buffet in Foix, Julian Alaphilippe winking to the camera behind President Macron then endo-ing to a halt in the Pau time trial, Thibaut Pinot rising up as the winner-in-waiting to end years of personal and national heartbreak. That Tour was one hell of an anticlimax, but for a precious few days there was something special brewing – French fervour and frenzy in the air. The home country has been starved of male success at their home race for so long, and in Seixas they surely have their successor to Bernard Hinault at last. I can’t realistically see him in yellow this year but Seixas is the hottest property in the sport right now and something’s telling me that momentum and excitement deserves to be carried into July. I think the practicalities could check out but most of all I think it would be a lot of fun.
I'm as on-board with the Paul Seixas hype as anyone, but it comes to the Tour de France, I think doing it this year – as his first-ever Grand Tour! – would be too much, for a multitude of reasons. He's a prodigious talent, that much is clear, and probably will be France's next male Tour winner, but he's also only 19 and has his whole career ahead of him. Why rush? Piling on the pressure too early or risking a 'bad' Tour could be damaging for him long-term. If it was me, I'd ease him into Grand Tours with the Vuelta this year, which he could legitimately podium or even win, and then head to his first Tour with at least the experience of one Grand Tour in his legs.
The question of experience
We've all been massively impressed by Seixas in the last few weeks and months, since last year really, but let's remember this: the longest race he's ever done was only eight days long! He's done that twice, at the Dauphiné and the Tour de l'Avenir, but eight days is very, very different from 21. He can win a week-long stage race, sure, but we have no idea how he might react over three weeks. We know that the step up from week-long races to Grand Tours is a huge one, and the Tour is absolutely the most intense way to start your GT career. Even for a prodigy like him, it could backfire, and having to pull out or struggle his way through could be a blow to his confidence or even his body.
You have to start somewhere with Grand Tours, but your home Tour with the pressure of the nation on your shoulders… that's just living life on hard mode.
Remco Evenepoel made this point ahead of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, casting doubt on Seixas’ ability to stay the course in the final hour. And what happens when you say that? Of course, the 19-year-old summarily drops you on La Redoute inside the final hour. That’s not to mock Evenepoel, who made a perfectly reasonable comment and should not be dissuaded from speaking his mind by banter merchants on the internet. What it does show is Seixas’ ability to subvert received wisdom over what can be expected from a teenager in the longer races. So while it would be astonishing for him to sustain a GC bid into the uncharted waters of a second and third week of racing, after what we’ve seen on Sunday (and throughout the Spring) you’d be a fool to rule it out entirely.
What’s more, he’s going to gain that experience and engine by riding for three weeks. After a month in which he has placed runner-up at Liège and wiped the floor with everyone at Itzulia Basque Country, I’d argue he’s ready for that next step of a three-week race this season, even at 19. Whether the Tour is the right place for that, brings us neatly onto our next topic…
Is pressure a problem?
Honestly I think the pressure and expectation on Seixas' shoulders is probably what worries me the most about a Tour debut. Even now, the media attention and speculation around Seixas is immense – he's already been labelled as France's next men's Tour winner, the only rider who can challenge Tadej Pogačar, his possible heir and more. He is constantly being interviewed, questioned, analysed, promoted. And let me repeat: he is 19! No matter how level-headed he may be, his frontal lobe is literally not fully developed.
To his credit, he handles it all astonishingly well, and I don't think it does get to him at the moment. But the Tour is a different beast entirely, with more media than any race he's done before, more podium duties, more fans, more TV. And of course more stages, more climbing, more competition. The fervour around him has so far been hyping him up, but what about when it goes wrong? Can he deal with that? Is his calm exterior infinitely bulletproof? Probably not, and it wouldn't do any harm to just get another year of life in general under his belt before facing all of this.
My opinion on this was shifted by a recent chat I had with Seixas' teammate Oliver Naesen at Paris-Roubaix. The Belgian made the point that 2026 is the only Tour de France Seixas will ever be able to race without pressure. Let’s say he goes to the Vuelta this year, and saves his Tour debut for 2027; if he does well in Spain then he becomes a true yellow jersey candidate, and even if he doesn’t then he boards the plane to Scotland with demonstrable Grand Tour experience in the bank. Either way, there is far less room to hide, in what would be his first taste of the circus that is the Tour de France.
This year, excitement surrounding Seixas has shot through the roof, but not necessarily expectation - yet. Even the French, I feel, would afford Seixas some patience this July. So while I acknowledge that Seixas would have an absolute whirlwind coming his way in terms of attention and scrutiny, I believe it would be largely free from the recriminatory notes you might otherwise find, should it not turn out to be a roaring success. For all the rest, Seixas appears remarkably well-placed to handle the spotlight – I’ve been staggered by his maturity in front of the media so far.
Would he get a result?
You simply cannot rule anything out with this boy. Like Seixas now, Tadej Pogačar was in his second season as a professional when he won the Tour de France in 2020 – one of the most stunning wins in the race’s history. Granted, Pogačar was two years older, and had already raced a Grand Tour, but in a way that previous year’s Vuelta only underlines the impact that generational talents can make in their debut three-week race; Pogačar won three stages and snatched a spot on the final podium. Normal rules do not seem to apply to Paul Seixas, who is far further ahead than Pogačar was at this age. So while I would still be shocked to see Seixas in the running for the yellow jersey, I wouldn’t be completely surprised.
To be clear, I cannot see him beating a full-strength Pogačar, and the same goes for Jonas Vingegaard, even if the Dane is also targeting the Giro d’Italia. But I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to picture him as the best of the rest. Plus, the experienced favourites don’t always stay on their bikes and, as Pogačar has shown, they too can crack. That makes it sound like I’m getting ahead of myself – and there’s a huge range of more realistic results that would still constitute success – but I guess the point I’m trying to make is that possibilities are so much more open-ended than they ought to be, and perhaps that’s why the prospect of Seixas at the Tour is so appealing.
Given how little we know about Seixas ability to race over multiple weeks, I find it very hard to predict or imagine if he could or couldn't get a solid GC result at the Tour. He's never done anything like this, so who knows? He could win, he could finish fifth, he could finish 105th – he could not finish at all. The immense talent he's shown so far in races like Itzulia and Flèche Wallonne doesn't directly correlate to racing over three weeks, and we really can't say that he'd definitely top 10 only based on results so far. So I don't think that's the best argument or reason to make a decision – we should also be thinking about his long-term career, and what he can do in years to come, not just now.
Do the team need him?
Need is a strong word. But they could certainly do with him. As it stands, Decathlon’s Tour de France hopes revolve around Olav Kooij, but the sprint star has yet to make his debut for the team. Having been diagnosed with a virus in January, little has been seen or heard of him since, and even if he manages to make it to the start line of the Tour, it’ll be a doubt whether he can make up for lost time and have enough speed for stage wins. On the GC front, the team have little depth, with their other main three-week rider, Felix Gall, targeting the Giro d’Italia this year. Decathlon’s Tour risks being a little subdued – Seixas would light it up. In terms of sponsorship exposure alone, that would count for a lot, and while thinking must be longer-term than that, it’s worth pointing out that Decathlon will also face a fight to keep Seixas in the future. Establishing him as the face of the team could help in that regard, but really they have to keep him sweet from now on – if he wants to go to the Tour, he goes.
Of course it would be great for Decathlon to be able to bring their hyped up French star to the Tour, but they're in a fortunate position of having long-term and big backing from their sponsors, so it's not like their survival or future is hinging on this one Tour. They've made it clear that Seixas is a long-term project for them. What's more, they've been super impressive this spring even in races without Kooij and Seixas, and there are a lot of riders who look ready to step up and could still make their Tour a memorable one.
