A Pogačar and Evenepoel rematch with Vingegaard thrown into the mix as European Championships brings superstars together for rare face-off – Analysis

Getting the stars to align to see Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard line up at the start of the same race is a rarity, usually only reserved for the Tour de France or the most prestigious one-week stage races. It's so rare that it's actually only happened seven times since they've risen to stardom, with injuries, different schedules and maybe some pride keeping them apart until the biggest appointments.

But having all three superstars of the sport take the start of a one-day race together has been even more infrequent, so much so that the last time it happened – at La Flèche Wallone in 2022 – Vingegaard had never won the Tour, Pogačar had only 37 professional victories, and Evenepoel hadn't yet won a senior World Championships title. Those three metrics now stand at two Tours de France for the Dane, 105 wins for Pogačar and four elite rainbow jerseys for the Belgian.

In fact, that race was so long ago that none of the three even took victory, or even really came close to it, at Flèche in 2022, with the Dane not finishing, Evenepoel taking 43rd, and the Slovenian only finishing 12th up the Mur de Huy as Dylan Teuns scorched to victory. I was there that day on the Mur, but thinking back, it really wasn't that surprising to see them all falter on the steep slopes as it would be now, of course.

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A great deal can, and has happened after 1261 days, but finally, on Sunday, we'll get to see the stars align once more as all three men take the start of the UEC Road European Championships road race in France. It's not often been the biggest race, with several flat sprint finishes in recent years for the iconic white and blue jersey, but now it has one of the top start lists of the whole season. Unlike in 2022, if anyone else is able to overcome their dominance, especially Pogačar's, it will be a massive shock.

The road from Rwanda to France for Pogačar and Evenepoel

The Slovenian will arrive as the heavy favourite for the 202.5km race in France's Ardèche and Drôme departments, fresh off the back of his demolition of the World Championships road race in Rwanda, which saw him light things up with 105km to go, before riding 66km solo to victory.

Pogacar successfully defended his crown from Zürich last year, and will be looking to carry his dominant form into Sunday's race, where Evenepoel – as he did last week – will line up as the second favourite and hope to improve on his silver medal from Kigali.

The Belgian has already confirmed that his form has held, despite a rapid overnight transfer from Kigali to southeastern France, after another dominant victory in Wednesday's time trial over Filippo Ganna (Italy) and a top field of ITT specialists. It was another exhibition, and confirmed him as the historic holder of his national and continental time trials, as well as being the current World and Olympic Champion in the discipline.

But a road race effort is completely different, and there are many more variables that can cause a top rider's race to become unstuck. Evenepoel experienced the unfortunate side of this at Worlds just last week, with two untimely bike changes seeing him unable to match Pogačar's initial surge and forcing him into a long chase where he ultimately came up 1:28 short.

Head-to-head

While the trio haven't raced together at a one-day race for three years, that changes when you compare Pogačar and Evenepoel's head-to-head record. They've started 21 one-day events together, but Pogačar has finished higher in two-thirds of them. Also, from their past 10, the Slovenian has finished higher in nine – the one exception being a no contest at Tre Valli Varesine last season.

Evenepoel always seems the most likely contender to follow Pogačar's daring solo moves, but that theory has hardly ever proved true. After all, the last victory for the Belgian at a one-day race that Pogačar also started came at Liège-Bastogne-Liège in 2023 – when he broke his wrist in a crash and didn't finish. Evenepoel has actually only won four one-day races that Pogačar has started against him, and three of them have been DNFs for the latter, with his ride to the World road race title in Wollongong back in 2022 being the exception.

But that has to change at some point, surely? Evenepoel seems to be perhaps one of two riders able to match or prevent Pogačar from winning at will in the one-day arena, the other being Mathieu van der Poel – as shown throughout the spring, but he's not been able to live up to that hype in recent races in the same way the Dutchman did at Milan-San Remo or Paris-Roubaix.

We almost got to see it at Amstel Gold Race back in April, when Evenepoel produced a quite miraculous effort to chase down and catch the solo Pogačar, who has surged away and looked set for another dominant victory, but sadly – for Evenepoel – he'd taken a passenger with him, Mattias Skjelmose (Denmark), and the Dane stunned them both in the sprint.

But it did prove that Evenepoel could stop the daring solo moves, even once Pogačar had gotten up the road, using his vastly superior time trialling skills to close the gap. The problem with this, obviously, is that Evenepoel's best weapon in a road race is being away solo himself, not trying to chase down the best rider we've seen for 50 years, then beat him in a sprint.

He'll have several chances to do so at Sunday's race, with 13 climbs lining the route and a punchy final circuit around Valence set to bring a rip-roaring day of racing, but Evenepoel will be praying his equipment doesn't let him down as he said it did in Kigali, and that he gets to test himself properly against Pogačar at what appears to be absolute peak shape.

For Pogačar, his dominance affords him the luxury of several approaches, with the solo attack, one big attack and late solo, or even a small-group sprint all suiting his abilities, such is his versatility and near-absolute monopoly over the biggest races.

Also in Kigali, in contrast to Zurich Worlds last year, when Pogačar did seemingly begin to waver after also attacking 100km out from the finish, the gaps only really got bigger as he completed the six-hour, 268km effort and what several described as their toughest ever race. Only 30 riders finished, and just three were within six minutes of his winning time.

Make no mistake about it, while Evenepoel is one of the best championship racers we've ever seen, it would still take a start-to-finish perfect race to defeat the all-consuming Pogačar. And even then, it's hard to imagine the Belgian dropping him up the short, punchy Val D'Enfer climb (1.6km at 9.7%), which is taken on four times in the last 60km.

Vingegaard as the unknown quantity

While his contemporaries are contenders for both Grand Tours and the Monuments, Vingegaard's career has only seen him excel in stage racing, with a recent Vuelta a España title most recently added to his two yellow jerseys from the Tour, and only one victory of his 47 coming at a one-day event.

Luckily for the Dane, that sole win came at the Drôme Classics in 2022, the same area where much of Sunday's European Championships road race will take place, though that did come one day after racing the Ardèche Classic, so it was more similar to his usual stage-racing prowess. Since that season, one-day races have largely disappeared from Vingegaard's schedule.

He himself has admitted his lack of experience and skill in performing in the one-day arena, but with his obvious top climbing characteristics, it is something he's aiming to add to his arsenal in the coming seasons.

"I dream of performing well in one-day races," Vingegaard told WielerFlits after the Vuelta. "The reason I haven't ridden many one-day races in recent years is that I haven't really discovered how to perform in them yet.

"The only time I won a one-day race was the day after another one-day race. So yeah, you couldn't really call that a one-day race."

At 70km to go in Sunday's race will come the Saint Romain de Lerps climb (7km at 7.2%), where, if things aren't already, Pogačar or Evenepoel will likely light things up. Here is where Vingegaard should be able to follow, on one of the longer climbs, but it's unknown how he will cope once they enter the punchy finishing laps.

His advantage, of course, is that he's been resting and recovering ever since winning the Vuelta for this next goal, while his rivals completed one of the most attritional races of all time a week prior, in tough conditions, so perhaps the fatigue could set in and see the Dane really challenge.

The focus for Sunday, naturally, is on the three superstars, but if they get too caught up in marking each other, they could cancel each other each, allowing someone to either slip away or benefit from the showdown – as Skjelmose did at Amstel Gold.

It was Dylan Teuns who beat all three last time they stood on the start line of a one-day race together, but it could be someone like Juan Ayuso (Spain), João Almeida (Portugal), Romain Grégoire (France) or Skjelmose again that shocks them this time. It's a race not to be missed, and could have an added layer that even the World Championships lacked.