Cancellara’s Classics column: Your legs make the difference, not tyre pressure
"It's something unique, not comparable to other races," Mathieu van der Poel said as he reported for duty in Compiègne this morning. Paris-Roubaix is, indeed, a race apart, but Van der Poel is in a familiar position. The Dutchman is the favourite to win this race, as he is at so many others, but he will face plenty of competition on the rocky road to Roubaix.
The peloton is due to roll out of Compiègne at 11am local time, and the race is scheduled to hit kilometre zero at 11.15. The conditions are bright and dry, which should encourage a fast race - as, indeed, should the forecast for tailwinds later in the afternoon.
There are 30 cobbled sectors on the route, beginning at Troisvilles after 96km. That is something of an antechamber to Hell. The true Inferno begins at the Trouée d'Arenberg after 160km.
The cobbled sectors of Paris-Roubaix
30 : Troisvilles to Inchy (km 96.3 – 2.2 km) ***
29 : Viesly to Quiévy (km 102.8 – 1.8 km) ***
28 : Quiévy to Saint-Python (km 105.4 – 3.7 km) ****
26 : Vertain to Saint-Martin-sur-Écaillon (km 117.9 – 2.3 km) ***
24 : Saulzoir to Verchain-Maugré (km 130.6 – 1.2 km) **
23 : Verchain-Maugré to Quérénaing (km 134.9 - 1.6 km) ***
22 : Quérénaing to Maing (km 137.6 - 2.5 km) ***
19 : Trouée d'Arenberg (km 161.9 - 2.3 km) *****
18 : Wallers to Hélesmes (km 167.9 - 1.6 km) ***
15 : Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières (km 185.6 - 2.4 km) ****
14 : Beuvry-la-Forêt to Orchies (km 192 - 1.4 km) ***
12 : Auchy-lez-Orchies to Bersée (km 203.1 - 2.7 km) ****
11 : Mons-en-Pévèle (km 208.6 - 3 km) *****
10 : Mérignies to Avelin (km 214.6 - 0.7 km) **
8 : Templeuve - L'Epinette (km 223.4 - 0.2 km) *
5 : Camphin-en-Pévèle (km 237.3 - 1.8 km) ****
4 : Carrefour de l'Arbre (km 240 - 2.1 km) *****
A short-sleeved peloton is navigating the neutralised section, where the conditions are so different to the rain that so influenced last October's pandemic-delayed edition.
Van der Poel and Wout van Aert share a joke at the rear of the peloton as the race approaches kilometre zero. Van Aert is back in action after COVID-19 ruled him out of the Tour of Flanders and Amstel Gold Race. Kirsten Frattini has more here.
-256km
Christian Prudhomme waves the flag from the red race director's car, and the 2022 Paris-Roubaix is formally underway. There is an immediate series of accelerations, and we could be in a fierce battle for the early break here.
In 1979, Giuseppe Saronni was asked to assess the second successive Paris-Roubaix victory of his arch-rival Francesco Moser. His response to Beppe Conti of Tuttosport was a masterpiece of pettiness, but it also cut to the central absurdity of this race.
"I saw it on Swiss TV because Italian TV continues to snub cycling. And on TV, I liked it even less than I did last year when I did it on my bike," Saronni said. "A race of that kind can't have a future. No, Roubaix should be erased from the calendar. What's the point of it? You're going strong, you drop everybody and then you puncture, or you break your bike in a pothole and you lose it. What's the point of it?"
Paris-Roubaix is venerated by some, feared by many, and disdained by some. But none of us - not even Saronni, tuning in a fuzzy Swiss television picture to hate-watch Moser all those years ago - can look away. That's probably the point of it.
DSM garnered a lot of publicity this week for their plans to use a tyre-pressure adjustment system during this race, but they ultimately opted against it. Our columnist Fabian Cancellara can understand the riders' reticence to use the new technology today, and he has doubts about whether it's feasible even in the future given that riders already have so much to think about in the finale of a race like Paris-Roubaix.
"I don’t know the full system and how it works, but I think it’s too complex when you’re going from one sector of cobbles to the next," Cancellara wrote. "In a long race like Roubaix, you already have enough to think about, between eating and drinking, concentrating on the road ahead, and keeping an eye on your rivals. Now you also need to think about touching the buttons to inflate and deflate your tyres? I think it’s adding a bit too much complexity." Read the full column here.
Peter Stuart and Daniel Ostanek were at the start in Compiègne this morning, and Peter has news of some technological tweaks. Trek-Segafredo's riders today are all equiped with 1x set-ups with a 54-tooth chainring.
-241km
The first faller at this Paris-Roubaix is Clement Davy from Groupama-FDJ. The Frenchman is back on his bike and chasing, but his torn kit suggests that he fell heavily and will struggle to make an impact later in the race, where his leader Stefan Küng is a real dangerman.
-238km
Mathias Norsgaard (Movistar) and Stanislaw Aniolkowski (Bingoal-Pauwels Sauzen-WB) dangled off the front for 7km or so, but they've been brought to heel again. Now the inimitable Taco van der Hoorn seeks to push on, but it's not easy for a break to establish itself today.
Wout van Aert's condition after his time off with COVID-19 is a mystery, but the Belgian champion's form this Spring means that he remains a contender, even if he is not a favourite on the same level as his old rival Van der Poel. “It’s hard to say," Van Aert said at the start. "Of course, I’m not on the level I was before. It’s been a setback at the worst moment but I’m happy to be here, and hopefully I find the legs to be there in the final and then hopefully I can do something. It’s a bit question mark for me, we’ll see.”
-234km
Tom Scully (EF Education-EasyPost) and Vito Braet (Sport Vlaanderen-Baloise) clip off the front of the peloton. Like the previous escape effort, they open a small gap, but it's not been allowed to grow much at all.
Meanwhile, Pascal Ackermann (UAE Team Emirates) has abandoned Paris-Roubaix, the first rider to do so.
Clement Davy has made it back to the peloton after his early crash, and the Frenchman is now receiving attention from the race doctor. The bunch is still together, but there has been no shortage of early aggression. TotalEnergies and Lotto Soudal are now trying to get something going.
Some dangermen have been active in trying to mmake the early break, including Dylan Teuns and Tim Merlier, but they are marked quickly by QuickStep-AlphaVinyl.
-222km
And after that move is snuffed out, a group of three sense their opportunity. Owain Doull (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) and Alexandr Riabushenko (Astana Qazaqstan) clip away and they have built a lead of 20 seconds, the largest we have seen so far this morning.
-220km
Owain Doull (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) and Alexandr Riabushenko (Astana Qazaqstan)
Owain Doull (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) and Alexandr Riabushenko (Astana Qazaqstan) have half a minute on the peloton, but there is a counter-attack trying to forge across. Davide Ballerini (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl) is among the riders trying to make it across and the peloton is lined out behind them.
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) is Fabian Cancellara's 'danger favourite' for this race, and the Swiss rider is coming into Paris-Roubaix off the back of a fine spring campaign. All he's missing now is a landmark victory. "I always like this race from the first time I did it. So far, I wasn't able to score a really good result, but I have a feeling that today it's going to happen," Küng said at the start.
"We have a very strong team. I feel confident in this race. It's good when you're confident and you know your strength. So, it's always good to sometimes relax a little bit in the moment where it's not too important let's say so you can have the power later on in the race."
-214km
The flurry of counter attacking has abated, and the three leaders' advantage has grown accordingly. Owain Doull (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) and Alexandr Riabushenko (Astana Qazaqstan) have 40 seconds in hand on the bunch.
-212km
Owain Doull (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) and Alexandr Riabushenko (Astana Qazaqstan)
The race is making its way through a section of crosswind. Ineos are active near the head of the peloton, perhaps with a view to creating echelons. Jumbo-Visma are also present in numbers, and this could complicate life for riders at the rear of the bunch...
-208km
Owain Doull (EF Education-EasyPost), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) and Alexandr Riabushenko (Astana Qazaqstan) are brought back by the front end of the peloton, and their lead over the Van der Poel group is still growing...
Van der Poel and Van Aert continue to lose ground, and they trail the front group by 40 seconds. This is a remarkable turn of events. As well as Ineos, there are a lot of QuickStep riders in the front group, and it seems that Stefan Küng is also in that group of 30 or so riders.
A lot of favourites have been caught out by this split. Kasper Asgreen, Mads Pedersen, John Degenkolb, Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert are among those caught behind, and they are now 56 seconds behind this 30 or 40-strong front group that contains all of the Ineos line-up.
Ineos are doing the bulk of the driving in this front group. QuickStep also have numbers, wiith Yves Lampaert and Davide Ballerini present. So too, do Bahrain Victorious, who have Matej Mohoric up here with intent.
-201km
The Ineos-led front group now has 1:15 in hand on the Van der Poel/Van Aert group. Paris-Roubaix is a race of multiple possible scenarios, but who honestly thought the bunch would split into echelons long before Troisvilles?
-197km
Race radio confirms that there are 73 riders in the front group, including all seven from Ineos and six from QuickStep.
The riders 1:15 down include: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen).
Ineos are still doing the bulk of the work in this front group, but they are now getting some help from QuickStep-AlphaVinyl. Dangermen in this front group include Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Mike Teunissen (Jumbo-Visma) and Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl).
-192km
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
Groupama-FDJ have joined Trek-Segafredo and Alpecin-Fenix in leading the chase in the second group. Stefan Küng is another big name to have missed the split... There seemed to be some confusion in the FDJ ranks at first, given that one of their riders took some turns in the front echelon, but now the squad is committed to trying to drag Küng back into contention.
It's interesting that pretty much all of the Ineos riders have been working on the front of this 73-rider group. It's very difficult to figure out who the leader is, given that even Filippo Ganna has been taking long tunrs in front. Other strongmen in the front group, such as Mohoric and Nils Polittt, have had a free ride thus far.
It's remarkable that so many favourites were caught out in that split. Perhaps men like Van Aert and Van der Poel looked around and felt they had safety in numbers, but now their race has been severely complicated.
Jannik Steimle, Tim Declercq, Florian Sénéchal and Yves Lampaert are all in this front group for QuickStep-AlphaVinyl. Patrick Lefevere's team has had a very subdued Spring, but this is suddenly a huge opportunity to put a different slant on things. Lampaert has been laid low by illness this year, however, and in an ideal scenario, QuickStep would have wanted Asgreen in this move. Sénéchal is a dark horse, mind. The Frenchman has been more afflicted by bad luck than by illness so far this spring.
-180km
73 riders including Filippo Ganna, Dylan van Baarle, Michal Kwiatkowski, Magnus Sheffield, Ben Turner, Luke Rowe (Ineos Grenadiers), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Mike Teunissen (Jumbo-Visma), Florian Sénéchal, Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal)
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Mads Pedersen, Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
-177km
It's just over ten miles to the first sector of cobbles at Troisvilles, and it's notable that the chasers have struggled to make any real inroads into the front group's lead on these smooth roads. Van der Poel, Van Aert et al might have to start doing it by themselves once the race hits the cobbles.
Alpecin-Fenix, Trek-Segafredo and Groupama-FDJ are chasing in the second group, but all they can do for now is keep the deficit stable at 1:19. This is shaping up to be something of a handicap race for Van der Poel once they hit the cobbles at Troisvilles.
-166km
73 riders including Filippo Ganna, Dylan van Baarle, Michal Kwiatkowski, Magnus Sheffield, Ben Turner, Luke Rowe (Ineos Grenadiers), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Mike Teunissen (Jumbo-Visma), Florian Sénéchal, Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal)
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Mads Pedersen, Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
A brief recap for those joining us just in time for the first cobbles at Troisvilles. After a fast start, no early break was able to gain any traction, but Ineos succeeded in splitting the peloton in two amid crosswinds with 210km still to race. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Mads Pedersen, Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen) and Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) were among the riders caught out and they are now 1:20 down as they approach Troisvilles.
In the front group of 73, meanwhile, Ineos have all seven of their riders and QuickStep-AlphaVinyl have six of their number, as do TotalEnergies. Jumbo-Visma have three riders (but not, of course, Van Aert or Laporte), and Matej Mohoric looks very dangerous with some Bahrain Victorious teammates for company. That's how the land lies ahead of the pavé, but we can expect this race to be shaken up all over again imminently.
This first cobbled section at Troisvilles is rated with 3 stars, and it lasts for 2.2km. TotalEnergies hit the front on the approach to the church at Troisvilles...
And back in the chasing group, there is a crash even before they hit the cobbles. Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) and Victor Campenaerts (Lotto Soudal) come down and their races are now even more complicated...
Another crash in the second group, as Silvan Dillier (Alpecin-Fenix) goes down on the cobbles, and that would be a loss for Van der Poel's chase effort. Out in front, meanwhile, Soupe led all the way through the 2.2km sector 30, and the leaders are safely through with a lead of 1:22 over the Van der Poel group.
-157km
Despite the crashes behind, things remained relatively stable over the first sector. The leaders have 1:22 in hand on the Van der Poel/Van Aert/Küng group. Next up is sector 29, 1.8km from Viesly to Quiévy.
The average speed after two hours of racing is a very brisk 48.8kph. Meanwhile, the race jury has ordered the teams out from behind the front group, which means that any mechanical issues will be very severely penalised for the riders up there.
Anohter crash, this time in the front group, and it's another Trek-Segafredo rider who goes down. Edward Theuns is quickly back on his bike, but he has work to do to catch back on.
And more bad luck for Trek-Segafredo... Alex Kirsch was in the front group, but he crashes on the cobbles and loses contact. That incident could also provoke a lasting split in the front group
A puncture for Filippo Ganna, who has to stop and get a front wheel change when he comes off the cobbles. Unfortunately, the television pictures leave him before we can see how quickly he can remedy the problem.
-151km
Luke Durbridge (BikeExchange-Jayco) clips away from the front group just before the third sector at Quiévy. He has 1:06 in hand on the Van der Poel group.
Ganna, meanwhile, has got a new front wheel and he is chasing back on to the front group. Ineos have relented to try to allow him back on and the Italian is chasing ferociously on the cobbles at Quiévy. It's a 3.7km sector, and efforts over that kind of distance are Ganna's food and drink. He has 40 seconds to recoup, however, and it won't be straightforward.
Ganna makes it back to the front group with a kilometre or so of this sector still to go. Ineos stalled the pace to help Ganna's pursuit, but that has also reduced the gap to the Van der Poel group, which now stands at 40 seconds.
DSM are making a monumental effort in the chasing group, and that is helping to drag Van der Poel and Van Aert back into contention as the race comes towards the exit of the third sector of cobbles. The gap is down to just 35 seconds as they reach smooth roads once again.
-147km
Includes Filippo Ganna, Dylan van Baarle, Michal Kwiatkowski, Magnus Sheffield, Ben Turner, Luke Rowe (Ineos Grenadiers), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Mike Teunissen (Jumbo-Visma), Florian Sénéchal, Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal)
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
Niki Terpstra (TotalEnergies) missed that crash and the Dutchman cannily slips off the front on the cobbles. He opens a small lead over the rest of the splintered front group by the time he comes out the other side.
A puncture for Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), who was in the Van der Poel and Van Aert group before sector 27, but the mass crash on those cobbles has likely changed the make-up of the chasing groups. We await TV pictures for confirmation.
-143km
The one certainty for now is that Niki Terpstra is alone at the head of the race with a lead of 30 seconds over the second group on the road, which includes Ganna, Van Baarle, Sénechal, Lampaert, Daniel Oss, Timo Roosen and Mike Teunissen.
Terpstra leads into the cobbles at Vertain, but his gap over the Ganna group is coming down steadily.
-132km
Filippo Ganna, Dylan van Baarle, Ben Turner (Ineos), Yves Lampaert, Florian Senechal, Davide Ballerini, Jannik Steimle (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Timo Roosen, Mike Teunissen (Jumbo-Visma), Nikias Arndt (DSM), Stefan Bissegger, Sebastian Langeveld (EF Education-EasyPost), Juan Sebastian Molano (UAE Team Emirates), Max Kanter (Movistar), Jens Reynders (Sport Vlaanderen-Baloise), Daniel Oss, Maciej Bodnar and Niki Terpstra (TotalEnergies) rattle over the short sector 25 at Haussy with a lead of 12 seconds over the chasers Mohoric, Gilbert, Politt et al.
The Van Aert-Van der Poel-Küng group trails by 1:34.
Van der Poel and Van Aert were almost within reach of Ganna et al as they hit the cobbles at Saint-Python a while ago, but the crash in the front group there delayed everybody who was caught behind it. Such is the maddening cruelty of Paris-Roubaix.
-128km
The front group expands considerably as Mohoric, Gilbert, Politt et al catch them ahead of sector 24. They now have some 1:47 in hand on Van der Poel, Van Aert and Küng... That gap won't shrink easily.
-126km
Jens Reynders (Sport Vlaanderen-Baloise) attacks alone from the front group on sector 24 at Saulzoir. He comes out the other side with a small lead over this group of 50 or so riders. Van Aert, Van der Poel et al are some 1:48 down.
There is a fast succession of cobbles over the next 10km, but the big sort-out comes with 95km to go in Arenberg. The sectors that precede the beginning of Hell Proper are as follows:
23 : Verchain-Maugré to Quérénaing (km 134.9 - 1.6 km) ***
22 : Quérénaing to Maing (km 137.6 - 2.5 km) ***
A puncture for Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) in the Van der Poel/Van Aert group. Trek-Segafredo's women enjoyed another great Paris-Roubaix yesterday, as Elisa Longo Borghini claimed victory, but their men have been plagued by bad luck so far.
-122km
40 riders, including Filippo Ganna, Ben Turner, Dylan van Baarle (Ineos), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Mike Teunissen (Jumbo-Visma), Florian Sénéchal, Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Philippe Gilbert (Lotto Soudal)
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte (Jumbo-Visma), Mads Pedersen, Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Matteo Trentin (UAE Team Emirates), Alexander Kristoff (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), Kasper Asgreen (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Greg Van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen (AG2R Citroen), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
Reynders is through sector 23 at Quérénaing with a lead of 27 seconds over the chasers. Meanwhile, there's another problem for Ganna, who unships his chain on the cobbles. He stops and gets some help from the Shimano neutral assistance. The Italian is now making his second, lone pursuit of the front of the race today. He has the strength to recoup the deficit, but he will surely pay for these efforts later in the race.
Reynders leads onto sector 22 (Quérénaing to Maing, 2km) with a gap of 27 seconds on the Mohoric/Lampaert group. Ganna is alone at 50 seconds. The Van Aert-Van der Poel group is at 1:43.
QuickStep don't want Ganna getting back on, and Ballerini and Senechal force the pace on the cobbles at Maraing. A reminder that the Arenberg is still over 20km away and the finish is almost 120km away... This race could change a thousand ties in the interim.
-116km
Filippo Ganna makes it back to the front group just before sector 21 (1.6km, ***) but at that very moment, QuickStep-AlphaVinyl stretch things out, and it would be a surprise if this group didn't split through this next segment. The onus is on Ganna to move up as swiftly as he can to avoid being caught on the wrong foot.
It seems as though Alpecin-Fenix are committed to chasing as much as they can before the Arenberg, when it will surely be all up to Van der Poel. They are powering the second group, and the gap has contracted to 54 seconds. There are 10km of smooth roads now before the next sector at Wallers. There will be greater shock and awe to come ahead, but these could be very crucial kilometres in the race. If Alpecin-Fenix can continue to close the gap, anything is possible for Van der Poel. If it yawns out again, his afternoon becomes much more difficult.
-111km
This is relentless, frantic racing, Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious) leads a five-man group off the front of the race on the smooth roads, and this could be very dangerous indeed. Ineos will need to shut this down quickly, but Filippo Ganna doesn't seem to have too much help here anymore.
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Davide Ballerini (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Casper Pedersen (DSM), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert) and Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) are in front with lead of 18 seconds over the chasers and 1:04 in hand on Van der Poel et al.
A rear wheel puncture for Van Baarle in the second group on the road. The Dutchman gets a rapid bike change but he might have to drop back to the Van der Poel group, which is winding up the pace considerably ahead of the Wallers-Arenberg combination.
Alpecin-Fenix have been chasing as though the finish line is at the entry to the Forest of Arenberg - and, in some ways, it is. Van der Poel will surely look to surf across to the front on those fearsome waves of cobblestones.
Connor Swift (Arkea-Samsic) and Nils Politt (Bora-Hansgrohe) try to bridge across to the five leaders before sector 20, the four-star, 2.5km sector of Wallers...
-100km
Mohoric et al come off the cobbles at Wallers with 37 seconds in hand on Swift and Politt, and 1:08 on the peloton containing the rest of the favourites. Next up is the vicious Trouée d'Arenberg: 2.3km of five-star cobblestones. The race enters another dimension here, and the situation should be very different out the other side.
-95km
The race moves from the suburbs of Hell into something approaching its Central Business Distict. Mohoric leads the break through the opening part of the Trouée d'Arenberg.
And then there were four. A flat tyre for Davide Ballerini, who loses contact with the break. This changes the race drastically. QuickStep now have full motivation to chase...
Ineos lead the peloton into the Arenberg, 1:44 down on Mohoric, Devriendt, Casper Pedersen and Pichon. Politt and Swift remain in between the two groups.
It seems Wout van Aert was not bluffing about his post-COVID condition. The Belgian champion is at the rear of the peloton, and it doesn't seem as though he had a puncture. That said, he is now moving up past other riders, so it's not over for him just yet.
Ganna powers to the front of the peloton on the Arenberg and opens a small gap. The peloton is stretching out considerably, and gaps are opening everywhere. The lie of the land will be so markedly different out the other side of this sector, but it seems clear that Van Aert is losing ground to the riders who matter in the hunt for victory. Laporte is also back with Van Aert.
-91km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Casper Pedersen (DSM), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert) and Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) comes out of the Arenbeerg with 1:13 in hand on Connor Swift (Arkea-Samsic) and Davide Ballerini (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl). A small group containing Filippo Ganna, Michal Kwiatkowski and Stefan Küng is not far behind them. And the remnants of a splintered peloton is at 2:00.
-89km
Three riders remain in front at sector 18: Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert) and Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic) have distanced Casper Pedersen.
Swift and Ballerini are at 1:20. The Ganna-Küng group is a little further behind. The 'peloton', such as it is, is at 2:28.
It seems Wout van Aert's Arenberg issues were caused by a mechanical problem. The Belgian champion gets a bike change ahead of sector 19, and he looks smoother on his new machine, but he has a lot of ground to recoup.
Mathieu van der Poel and many other riders have joined with Ganna and Küng, expanding that third group on the road to 20 or so riders. They are 1:29 down on Mohric et al, and 45 seconds clear of Van Aert as they come off sector 18.
The pace has relented considerably in the Van der Poel-Ganna group, and that is allowing Van Aert to get back into contention. His bike issue at Arenberg meant we couldn't gauge his condition properly to this point. The next sectors should reveal a whole lot more.
The next three sectors of cobbles are as follows:
17 Hornaing to Wandignies 174.7 82.5 3.7 ****
16 Warlaing to Brillon 182.2 75 2.4 ***
15 Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières 185.6 71.6 2.4 ****
Van Aert, meanwhile, has rejoined the sizeable group of favourites, 2:00 down on the three leaders Mohoric, Devriendt and Pichon. Kasper Asgreen is also in that group, and the scuffs on his kit suggest that he was a faller earlier in the race. As ever, Paris-Roubaix is a race of a thousand simultaneous stories, it's not straightforward to keep track of them all.
-81km
For now, as the race hits sector 17 at Hornaing, the key plot line is that a real dangerman, Matej Mohoric, is at the head of the race with a 1:54 lead over the pre-race favourites. He won't be brought back easily...
Hornaing to Wandignies is, at 3.7km, the longest sector of the race. After the relative detente in the favourites group that allowed Van Aert come back on, we can expect a further shake-up here. Groupama-FDJ hit the front of this group with intent on behalf of Küng.
Swift and Ballerini are about to be caught by the FDJ-led group of favourites, which is 1:47 down on Mohoric and company on this sector to Wandignies.
-78km
Pichon was an attacker earlier in this race and he is riding very strongly in the company of Mohoric and Devriendt, 1:55 clear of the chasers as they come off the longest sector of pavé.
-75km
A puncture for Stefan Küng in the group of favourites. Rotten luck for the Swiss rider. He has the strength to latch back on, but that effort will weigh on the legs later in the afternoon.
Matej Mohoric really shouldn't have been given a head start like this, especially on a dry Paris-Roubaix buffeted by a tailwind... The Slovenian has 2:20 in hand on the other favourites with 73km to go. He is seeking to emulate Cyrille van Hauwaert (1908), Sean Kelly (1986) and John Degenkolb (2014) by winning Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix in the same season.
Mohoric leads the race onto sector 15 (Tilloy to Sars-et-Rosières, 2.4km ****) with a lead of 2:01 on their immediate chasers and 2:25 on the group of favourites, which is now being led by Ineos Grenadiers.
-70km
Christophe Laporte has lost contact with the Van der Poel group. The Frenchman has been struggling in recent kilometres, so this isn't a complete surprise. Van Aert, meanwhile, remains with the favourites group, which also includes Küng after he chased back following his puncture.
-69km
Mohoric's forcing almost shook off Pichon on the cobbles of sector 15, but the Frenchman manages to stay in touch. They come out wiith a lead of 2:04 on the immediate chasers and 2:13 on Van der Poel, Van Aert, Ganna et al.
-67km
The next three sectors of cobbles are:
14 Beuvry-la-Forêt to Orchies 65.2km to go, 1.4km in length ***
13 Orchies 60.2km to go, 1.7 in length ***
12 Auchy-lez-Orchies to Bersée 54.1km to go, 2.7km in length ****
-66km
Ballerini, Bissegger, Casper Pedersen and Swift are caught by the Van der Poel group, which is 2:09 down on the leaders. Florian Senechal and Taco van der Hoorn try to clip away on the smooth roads when they are caught and one Wout van Aert gives chase. His presence dooms the move, and they are quickly shut down. But it's interesting to see the Belgian champion looking so smooth at this point considering his mechanical woes in the Arenberg Forest.
Matteo Trentin senses a lull and clips away himself, with Tim Merlier following. Wout van Aert, meanwhile, maintains a close watching brief.
Trentin and Merlier's counter-attack peters out. This large group is still 2:01 down on Mohoric et al, who are now on sector 14 from Beuvry-la-Forêt to Orchies.
-64km
Matej Mohoric has gone early but he has gone very decisively, and he's still cajoling some decent collaboration from his breakaway companions Pichon and Devriendt. The Slovenian will be very, very difficult to peg back.
-62km
Next up are the cobbles at Orchies, where Tom Boonen launched his winning move a decade ago. Could this be the point where Mohoric decides to rid himself of his company at the head of the race? Ineos set the pace in the chasing group, 1:59 down on the three leaders.
-60km
Pichon leads Mohoric and Devriendt onto the cobbles at Orchies, still with a buffer of 2:00 over the group of favourites. It's approaching the time when men like Van Aert and Van der Poel will have to take matters in hand themselves. Mohoric is far too dangerous to allow this kind of leeway so close to the velodrome in Roubaix...
Nathan Van Hooydonck leads the chasing group onto Orchies... Wout van Aert sits in second wheel and this is surely the beginning of a new phase in the race... Mathieu van der Poel is, for now at least, conspicuously absent from the head of the chasing group.
The injection of pace from Van Hooydonck has make a deep cut in Mohoric's lead. 1:35 the gap as the leaders hit the second part of this two-part sector in Orchies. Kwiatkowski, meanwhile, has punctured and lost contact with the chasing group...
-56km
This Van Aert move developed on the smooth road after sector 13, and it's a select group. Stefan Küng forces the pace, swapping turns with Van Aert and Turner. Florian Senechal comes with them, and now Van der Poel stitches the group of ten riders back together. They are 1:20 down on the three leaders.
The race is on sector 12, Auchy-lez-Orchies to Bersée, and Küng is leading the chase, cutting Mohoric's lead to 1:05 in the process. The third group on the road, featuring Kasper Asgreen, is not completely out the hunt at 1:32.
Dylan van Baarle sets out in lone pursuit from the chasing group on sector 12. The Dutchman is so smart at anticipating the accelerations of men like Van Aert, Van der Poel et al, and his skills as a rouleur mean he could well make it across to Mohoric et al.
-50km
Into the final 50km for Mohoric, Devriendt and Pichon, who 51 seconds on Van Baarle and around a minute on Van Aert, Van der Poel et al. Next up are the five-star cobbles of Mons-en-Pévèle. This 3km sector of rough road should produce fireworks.
-48km
Mohoric, Pichon and Devriendt reach Mons-en-Pevele with a lead of 41 seconds over Dylan van Baarle and 55 seconds on Van der Poel and company.
Van der Poel begins to show himself with a long turn on the front of the chasing group on the cobbles of Mons-en-Pevele, but he doesn't rid himself of any of his company.
-45.5km
Van Aert attacks from the chasing group... A key moment in the race. Van der Poel is back in fourth position, on Küng's wheel. The Dutchman is not looking as sharp here as he did at the Tour of Flanders. Van Aert, meanwhile, is certainly in contention for the win...
Ben Turner, Stuyven and Lampaert were shaken loose of the group by that Van Aert attack. Van der Poel, however, moves smoothly across to Van Aert on the uphill asphalt after Mons-en-Pevel, bringing Küng with him. This group of strongmen have pulled clear of the rest of the chasers...
-42km
Van Aert, Van der Poel and Kung catch Van Baarle and Pichon, forming a five-man chasing group 39 seconds behind Mohoric and Devriendt on the entry to sector 10 from Mérignies to Avelin.
Van Aert does the bulk of the pace-making over that short sector. The gap to the leaders is down to 34 seconds ahead of the three-star sector to Ennevelin. A reminder of the sectors is available here.
-41km
Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Dylvan van Barle (Ineos), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic)
The chasing group expands further on the approach to Ennevelin, as Adrien Petit (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Ben Turner (Ineos), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl) and Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) bridge up to Van Aert, Van der Poel et al.
Van Aert is chasing alone as he begins sector 9 to Ennevelin (1.4km, ***). He has 15 seconds or so to recoup on Van der Poel et al.
-36km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Dylvan van Barle, Ben Turner (Ineos), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic), Adrien Petit (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
Van Aert makes it back to the chasing group with 36km and eight sectors of cobbles remaining. These ten riders are 34 seconds behind Tom Devriendt (Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert), who has the chance of a lifetime in his hands, but surely he can't fend off the strongmen massed behind him.
The pace relents in the chasing group on the smooth roads before sector 8. This is a dangerous moment, not so much for the gap to Devriendt as for the prospect of a move drifting off the front. Van Aert doesn't want to take any chances and makes sure he is the man sitting on the front, just in case any drifting is liable to happen...
-32km
5 : Camphin-en-Pévèle (km 237.3 - 1.8 km) ****
4 : Carrefour de l'Arbre (km 240 - 2.1 km) *****
Wout van Aert puts in a little dig on the smooth road after the cobbles. There seem to be few doubts about the Belgian's recovery from COVID-19, but is he doing too much? Van der Poel, by contrast, has been very measured, but he looked very comfortable on that nasty little hill after Mons-en-Pevele. And Ineos, of course, have two cards to play with Turrner and Van Baarle.
-30km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Dylvan van Barle, Ben Turner (Ineos), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic), Adrien Petit (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
-29km
Danger here... Yves Lampaert and Matej Mohoric attack from the chasing group on the smooth road before sector 7. Ben Turner leads the chase, but this duo has opened a decent gap.
Dylan van Baarle counter-attacks and tries to bridge up to Mohoric and Lampaert. Van der Poel feels compelled to lead the chase behind them.
-27km
Dylan van Barle (Ineos)
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Ben Turner (Ineos), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic), Adrien Petit (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
The cobbles come thick and fast in the next few kilometres. Van Aert leads the chase on sector 7, but one suspects he, Van der Poel and Küng might be minded to save their big moves for sector 4 through the Carrefour-de-l'Arbre.
-24km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Dylan van Barle (Ineos)
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Ben Turner (Ineos), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic), Adrien Petit (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
Onto sector 6 (Bourghelles to Wannehain, 1.1km ***), and the four leaders have 40 seconds in hand on the chasers. Stuyven accelerates on the cobbles in a bid to bridge across alone... Nobody follows him for now...
-22km
Van Aert accelerates after sector 6, and only Kung can come with him. This duo is bridging across to Stuyven. Van der Poel can't follow, however, and it looks as though his hopes of completing the Ronde-Roubaix double have evaporated...
-21km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl), Dylan van Barle (Ineos)
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), asper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Fenix), Ben Turner (Ineos), Laurent Pichon (Arkea-Samsic), Adrien Petit (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert),
-20km
Two critical sectors coming in quick succession. The race will be very different out the other side:
5 : Camphin-en-Pévèle (km 237.3 - 1.8 km) ****
4 : Carrefour de l'Arbre (km 240 - 2.1 km) *****
It's already different even before Camphin-en-Pévèle. Stuyven punctures out of the first chasing group. It's all up to Van Aert and Kung to bridge up to the leaders now...
-19km
Van Aert and Kung hit Camphin-en-Pévèle with a deficit of 28 seconds on Mohoric, Devriendt, Lampaert and Van Baarle. Stuyven is 45 seconds down, and the Van der Poel group is almost a minute down.
Van Baarle attacks at the head of the race, and that acceleration on Camphin-en-Pévèle has shaken Devriendt loose. Mohoric and Lampaert are grimly chasing Van Baarle, who has a lead of 10 metres or so. 25 seconds down, Van Aert and Kung are swapping turns on the cobbles.
-17km
Van Baarle is the lone leader with a small gap over Mohoric and Lampaert. Devriendt is at 20 seconds, and Kung and Van Aert trail by 40 seconds on the entrry to the Carrefour de l'Arbe. Ben Turner crashes in the Van der Poel group, but they are all over a minute back and out of contention.
-16.5km
Van Baarle leads Mohoric and Lampaert by 10 seconds or so across the Carrefour de l'Arbre. Van Aert and Kung are at 45 seconds, their hopes seemingly ebbing away. Van der Pole has joined Stuyven, but they are 1:13 down on Van Baarle.
Kung almost comes down on the sharp left hand turn in the Carrefour de l'Arbre. He puts a foot down, but he loses contact with Van Aert. And that, it seems, is the end of his hopes of victory.
-14.5km
Vasn der Poel drops Stuyven on the Carrefour de l'Arbre and sets out with intent, but he has 1:11 to recoup on Van Baarle and he is running out of road.
Van Aert and Küng have picked up Devriendt, but the Belgian can't contribute much to their pursuit. They are now 53 seconds down, and even a podium place looks out of reach...
-11km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl)
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert)
Dylan van Baarle is pedalling very smoothly and he looks destined to win Paris-Roubaix, He has 40 seconds on Mohoric and Lampaert with just over 10km and two sectors of cobbles to go.
-8.5km
Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Yves Lampaert (QuickStep-AlphaVinyl)
Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert)
Yves Lampaert crashes out of the chasing group at Hem. The Belgian hit a spectator on the roadside, and he is flung across the road. The Belgian is quickly on his feet, mercifully, but his hopes of a podium finish are gone.
Lampaert and Mohoric were riding close to the roadside, but it certainly appeared as though a fan reached his hand out towards them, and that is what brought the QuickStep rider down.
Van Baarle glides across the final, 300m-long sector of cobbles. Paris-Roubaix is his.
Van Baarle enters the velodrome and begins what is effectively a lap of honour.
Dylan van Baarle (Ineos Grenadiers) wins Paris-Roubaix.
Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) wins the sprint for second ahead of Stefan Küng (Grouapama-FDJ). Tom Devriendt (Intermarche-Wanty-Gobert) took fourth ahead of Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious).
Van Baarle average 45.8kph - the fastest-ever edition of this race.
Result
1 Dylan van Baarle (Ned) Ineos Grenadiers 05:37:00
2 Wout van Aert (Bel) Jumbo-Visma 00:01:47
3 Stefan Küng (Swi) Groupama-FDJ
Dylan van Baarle on his victory: "It’s unbelievable. I couldn’t believe it when I went on the velodrome, you know. I looked at the other side to see if there were some other guys. When the team car came up next to me with Servais [Knaven]. then I really started believing in it. It’s been crazy.
"I mean, it’s a Monument, so of course, I wanted to win a Monument. To be second in Flanders and then to win Roubaix, I’m lost for words."
Van Baarle on Ineos' early aggression in the crosswinds: “No, it was not planned at all but it turned out like this. We were from the gun super focused. That’s what we wanted, we didn’t want to chase, we wanted to be on the front foot and that’s what we did. From that moment I knew we would have a good chance because we spent less energy than anyone else. We were also a bit unlucky I had a puncture, Pippo [Ganna] had a puncture but we just kept calm and the result is amazing.”
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