Paris-Roubaix men's contenders - 5 favourites and 5 outsiders

The 2023 cobbled Classics season reaches its spectacular conclusion on Sunday with the 120th edition of the Queen of the Classics, Paris-Roubaix.

It will be difficult for riders to top the thrilling editions of the Tour of Flanders where Tadej Pogačar and Lotte Kopecky triumphed in Oudenaarde. However, Roubaix is the biggest one-day race of the season and brings a month of racing over the cobbles of Flanders and northern France to an end with an action packed exclamation point.

In the 120th edition of the Hell of the North, 175 riders will take the start in Compiègne on Sunday morning with dreams of lifting the famous cobblestone trophy above their head six hours and 257km later in the Roubaix velodrome.

The iconic and brutal cobbles of the Trouée d'Arenberg, Carrefour de l'Arbre, and Mons-en-Pévèle, among others, lie in their way, while a peloton packed with star names only increases the challenge.

Cyclingnews will be on the ground in the build-up to the race and through the weekend to provide all the news and analysis from the men's and women's races, while we also have all the information on the Paris-Roubaix route and how to watch Paris-Roubaix, too.

As the anticipation ramps up ahead of what will no doubt be a gripping weekend of action, we've taken a look at the best of the best that will be lining up to do battle in the Hell of the North, picking out five big favourites and five slight outsiders for glory on Sunday afternoon.

Paris-Roubaix favourites

Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

Van der Poel may have only taken on two cobbled races so far this spring, but the Dutchman has unsurprisingly shown that he's among the very strongest and the top favourite for glory on Sunday.

After winning Milan-San Remo, Van der Poel took second place at both the E3 Saxo Classic and the Tour of Flanders – edged out by Wout van Aert in a sprint at the former and by Tadej Pogačar on the Paterberg at the latter.

With no Pogačar on the start list in Compiègne and Van Aert so far being unable to cope with Van der Poel's attacks in this Spring Classics season, the 28-year-old is the rider to watch.

Van der Poel has only taken part in two editions of Paris-Roubaix, finishing third on his debut at the wet 2021 race and trailing home in ninth last time out. He doesn't have the strongest support squad in the race for Sunday, though the in-form Jasper Philipsen will be an invaluable teammate and possibly even an outside tip in his own right.

Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma)

On paper, Van Aert has the strongest team behind him, giving him and Jumbo-Visma a plethora of options for Sunday. Despite having the reigning champion of the race in the squad (more on him below), Van Aert is still set to line up as leader and favourite for the Dutch squad.

He has a second place on his palmarès, of course, having finished 1:47 behind new teammate Dylan van Baarle last year. In 2021 he finished seventh at 1:16, so he's been there and thereabouts but never quite close to the win.

This spring, Van Aert has been among the best of the best, having outsprinted Van der Poel and Pogačar at the E3 Saxo Classic before gifting Gent-Wevelgem to his teammate Christophe Laporte, and going on to finish third and fourth at San Remo and Flanders. It bodes well for Sunday, even if he has looked slightly weaker than Van der Poel at E3 and Flanders.

Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo)

With talk all spring focussing on the 'big three' and Jumbo-Visma, it has been easy to forget a little about the other riders who have been at the cobbled Classics this spring. Outside the star trio of Van der Poel, Van Aert, and Pogačar, former world champion Pedersen has been perhaps the strongest and most consistent man over the last month.

The Dane has recently taken sixth at San Remo, fifth at Gent-Wevelgem and Dwars door Vlaanderen, and third at Flanders, with 14th at the E3 Saxo Classic his only non-top 10 result over his five Classics race days.

Pedersen's Flanders result, coming after a long stint in a mid-race break and a solo attack off the front, marks his best Monument result in five years, and he looks in the best spring form of his career. At Roubaix, his palmarès includes a best result of 51st as well as DNFs in his last two participations, though Pedersen has a good chance of going some way better this year.

He'll be joined by Jasper Stuyven, who hasn't quite enjoyed the same form on the cobbles, and Quinn Simmons, who hasn't been on top form over the past month. Pedersen should be the undisputed leader of Trek-Segafredo this Sunday.

Dylan van Baarle (Jumbo-Visma)

The reigning Paris-Roubaix champion will this year defend his title in the colours of Classics superteam Jumbo-Visma after making the switch from Ineos Grenadiers over the winter, joining Van Aert, Christophe Laporte, and Nathan Van Hooydonck in the peloton's strongest lineup for Sunday.

Once again, Van Baarle isn't the outright favourite for the win, having barely tested himself in recent weeks due to a combination of a crash at the E3 Saxo Classic and a subsequent illness taking him out of the running for Flanders.

He has been back in training, however, logging rides over the weekend and then with Wout Poels in Monaco on Monday. We already know that Van Baarle has the skill, power, and ability to succeed in Roubaix; the only question is whether his form has suffered with his illness and missed races.

The presence of Laporte, who was sixth two years ago and has been in the form of his life this spring, and Van Hooydonck, a lieutenant who could lead a team elsewhere in his own right, means that Jumbo-Visma have a multitude of options and strategies to work with on Sunday – strength in depth being a valuable resource at a race which can force riders out of the equation at a moment's notice.

Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)

The Swiss time trialist has evolved into a top Classics contender in recent seasons, logging top fives at Gent-Wevelgem, the E3 Saxo Classic, and Flanders as well as his first-ever Paris-Roubaix podium last spring.

He's the undisputed leader of Groupama-FDJ this weekend and is another rider to follow in the tradition of TTer turning his hand to the cobbles (sprinters being the other major rider archetype to combine specialties).

That does mean, of course, that Küng's options to win are limited by the way he rides. If he's to lift the iconic cobbled trophy on Sunday then you'd imagine he'd be racing into the velodrome solo, rather than winning a sprint showdown. Dropping the likes of Van der Poel and Van Aert with an acceleration on the cobbles would be some ask, though.

Still, though, Küng remains one of the favourites for Sunday, and he's in some good form too, having finished sixth at E3 and Flanders. He should be up there in contention, but the win is another matter.

Paris-Roubaix outsiders

Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)

Italian time trial star Ganna is one of four men slated to start on Sunday who have also triumphed at the U23 edition of Paris-Roubaix, joining Mike Teunissen, Stan Dewulf, and Nils Eekhoff on the start line in Compiègne.

Of course, glory at U23 is little indicator of success in the pro race – Marc Madiot was the last to win both, all the way back in 1991. Few recent winners are very likely to line up as a favourite in the coming years, either.

Ganna, however, bucks that trend, being realistically the only U23 race winner to line up among the favourites since Thor Hushovd. He doesn't yet have the results to back up his favourite status, however, missing the time cut on his debut in 2018, not finishing a year later, and taking 35th last spring.

This season he has taken on three cobbled Classics, with 10th at the E3 Saxo Classic his top result so far. A crash and knee pain at Gent-Wevelgem was a minor setback, but all eyes have been on Roubaix this spring.

In theory, Ganna has the profile and the power to succeed on Sunday, though he'll need the form, luck and support (Michał Kwiatkowski and Magnus Sheffield are on the Ineos squad while Ben Turner misses out through injury) to score a big result.

Kasper Asgreen (Soudal-QuickStep)

It has been a Classics season to forget for Soudal-QuickStep, the Belgian team having won none of the major cobbled Classics from Opening Weekend onwards.

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, the E3 Saxo Classic, Gent-Wevelgem, Dwars door Vlaanderen and the Tour of Flanders have all passed without any of their men making a podium, though Tim Merlier did score a win at Nokere Koerse.

Paris-Roubaix, then, is their final chance at saving their cobbled Classics campaign and adding to their staggering 60 cobbled wins over the 20 years since the team's foundation.

Kasper Asgreen is the man set to lead the team on Sunday, the Dane leading a strong squad set to include Florian Sénéchal, Yves Lampaert, Tim Declercq, and possibly the two sprinters Tim Merlier and Fabio Jakobsen.

It's an impressive collection of riders, but then again, the team haven't lacked for that this spring. In any case, Asgreen looks the form pick having taken seventh place among the chase group at Flanders last weekend. Last year's 44th is his best result in Roubaix, while Lampaert will take to the cobbles as co-leader – the Belgian has four top 10s to his name including a third place in 2019.

Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious)

As a puncheur/descender/breakaway man, Mohorič might not be the typical Paris-Roubaix specialist, but he showed that he can handle the race last year on his third appearance, taking fifth place after a day in the lead split and then off the front in a break.

The Slovenian perhaps wasn't among the favourites ahead of last year's race, but he'll be a watched man on Sunday, as will teammate Fred Wright, who finished eighth at Flanders last weekend.

The pair have grown into a formidable duo throughout the spring, though both lie just below the top rank of favourites. Still, at Paris-Roubaix anything can happen, and it often does. A Bahrain win to go with Sonny Colbrelli's 2021 triumph is not at all out of the question.

Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X)

Perennial Classics contender Kristoff is among the veterans of the cobbled Classics peloton, joining the likes of Greg Van Avermaet, Zdenek Stybar, Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan, and John Degenkolb among the big names in their mid 30s lining up on Sunday.

The Norwegian, now at Uno-X after moving from Intermarché-Circus-Wanty over the winter, has Milan-San Remo, the Tour of Flanders, and two Gent-Wevelgem titles on his palmarès, but has never quite put it together at Paris-Roubaix.

Kristoff, who turns 36 this July, has taken part in 12 editions of the race and finished in the top 10 twice, the last of which came back in 2015, while his last two attempts have seen him finish 14th and 12th.

It's a curious record for a rider renowned as someone who excels when the race is long and hard, though he has shown that he can be up there towards the head of the race. He has the experience and ability, and his long, impressive ride in the break at Dwars door Vlaanderen has shown his form.

Maybe all Kristoff, who will aim for a third Scheldeprijs title midweek, needs is a bit of luck this Sunday.

Florian Vermeersch (Lotto-Dstny)

While experience is often cited as a major factor in success at the cobbled Classics – you have to know the roads and the cobbles, goes the maxim – several young riders have shown in recent years that it's not everything in Flanders and northern France.

Tadej Pogačar is the prime example, but Vermeersch, who took second place on his Paris-Roubaix debut in the mud of 2021, is another. Now 24, the Belgian is taking on his third edition of the race and returns looking to recapture the lightning in a bottle that saw him on the podium as a neo-pro two years ago.

So far in 2021, it's been one-day races all the way for Vermeersch, with 12th place at the Tour of Flanders – as well as a long stint in the elite breakaway off the front mid-race – suggesting he's in solid form ahead of the weekend.

He'll be joined at Lotto-Dstny by 21-year-old Arnaud De Lie, who this spring has scored a second at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and sixth at Dwars door Vlaanderen. The rising star is making his Roubaix debut and clearly has an aptitude for the cobbles.

Lotto have a talented duo on their hands as they seek a first Roubaix victory since Peter Van Petegem 20 years ago, though this weekend might prove to be a touch early for that.